CIAO DATE: 09/04

The Role of Perceived Opportunity in Fertility Choice: Evidence from Latin America

Louise C. Keely and Margaret MacLeod

June 2004

Brookings Institution

 

Introduction

The fertility decline in Latin America, as part of a more general demographic transition, dates from around 1960. Though fertility levels currently remain above replacement levels, and arehigher than in Western Europe, the fertility decline in Latin America is expected to continue.

Many studies aim to explain the downward trend in Latin American fertility rates. These studies of population dynamics often focus on the relationship between fertility and income or education. Generally, the empirical correlations found are negative.

Given the decrease in fertility, theories that are used to understand fertility choice in developed countries may also be useful in understanding current cross–sectional fertility variation in Latin America. For instance, Lam and Duryea present evidence of a negative cross–sectional relationship between fertility and maternal education. They argue that their results are better understood by a quality–quantity quality–quantity trade–off in children, as in the model of Becker and Tomes, than by variation in the opportunity cost of raising children for mothers who choose how much to participate in the labor market.

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