CIAO DATE: 04/02

Challenges for a New Administration

Aleksandar D. Jovovic

Fall 2000

Institute for the Study of Diplomacy
Georgetown University

 

Overview

The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion , working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could:

• Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books).
• Present a considerable challenge to the President .
• Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trendline.

Of these scenarios, some were judged more credible in the near to medium term than others. At the same time, working group members recognized that a short list of potential surprises or unanticipated outcomes could not cover all the possible challenges the new Administration may face. Accordingly, much of the discussion of specific scenarios took place under broader rubrics, which could apply in multiple situations. Where appropriate, the working group identified policies that could prevent such a crisis, as well as actions that would mitigate the event and protect U.S. interests if it took place. In an effort to further illustrate the beneficial aspects of preparing for one specific surprise, the group also noted a number of other unexpected events or discontinuities that could unfold in a similar manner.

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