CIAO DATE: 04/02

Adjusting America's Two Alliances in East Asia: A Japanese View

The alliances of the United States in East Asia are in a process of profound change (Okimoto 1998). The treaties with Japan and Korea are undergoing distinctive metamorphoses. These changes are the result of a number of forces that unfolded over the decades of the twentieth century, most notably the Cold War, globalization, and democratization (Inoguchi 1993, 1995; and Archibugi, Held, and Koehler 1996).

These three forces became especially dynamic in the last quarter of the twentieth century. The Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The world ceased to be a divided world and instead became unipolar, with the United States reigning supreme and the rest running or sitting far behind (Inoguchi 1998a). Globalization has accelerated since 1985, the year of the Plaza Accord. Particularly dramatic is the integration of financial markets, which has given the term "global market" a truly authentic ring. The globe is no longer divided into three worlds, first, second, and third. Nor is it segmented by national territorial boundaries as neatly as before. It is an integrated world. Managing an integrated world, in the view of Renato Ruggiero, former director-general of the World Trade Organization, can be more difficult than managing a divided world.

The reach of democratization increased as never before in the fourth quarter of the twentieth century. At the turn of the century, there were some 10 democracies; in the mid-twentieth century there were about 20. At the beginning of the fourth quarter of the twentieth century, the number reached between 70 and 120, depending on how strict one's definition of the term. As Huntington (1993) has pointed out, the first (post-World War I) and second (post-World War II) waves of democratization have been succeeded by the third wave.

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