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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 07/04
Serbia's U-turn
April 26, 2004
Abstract
In politics and policies, Serbia increasingly resembles the Milosevic-era without Milosevic. Its reaction to the catastrophic mid-March 2004 near collapse of the UN mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), the strong showing by ultra-nationalists in the 28 December 2003 parliamentary elections and the subsequent two-months of squabbling before democratic parties could form a minority government that depends for survival on the support of Milosevic's old party all are signs that more trouble lies ahead. In 2004 Serbia can anticipate continued political instability, increasingly strained relations with the West and further economic decline. The spasm of ethnic cleansing of Serbs by Albanians in Kosovo has raised the prospect of Kosovo partition, strengthened the nationalist right wing and increased anti-Western sentiment. Instability and economic weakness could hasten moves by Montenegro towards independence, while Kosovo tensions could spill over into the Presevo valley, Sandzak and even Vojvodina. last longer than anyone expects. The Kosovo unrest has been a unifying factor, however temporary. But such stability as there may be will come through lowest common denominator politics, which in Belgrade today is anti-Western populism. Although Prime Minister Kostunica has stated that Serbia has no alternative to Europe, it does not appear that he considers cooperation with The Hague Tribunal a priority.
