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CIAO DATE: 06/04

Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace

June 6, 2003

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Apparently irreconcilable positions on the 'one China' principle have emerged between China and Taiwan over the last decade, with Taiwan for some time now asserting not only that it is a separate political entity but an independent sovereign country. China for its part remains absolutely unwilling to compromise its position that Taiwan and the mainland are part of one country, and has not renounced the use of force as a means of making that principle a reality. The risk of war between them must, accordingly, continue to be taken seriously.

But there is a real chance of continuing peace across the Taiwan Strait for the foreseeable future, provided that:

•conscientious efforts are made at the military level to create transparency and build confidence to lower the risk of miscalculation and misunderstanding;

•the present tendency toward growing cooperation between the two entities on economic and social matters continues; and

•the broader international community, while making some greater accommodation with 'status sentiment' in Taiwan, continues to hold the line against formal recognition of Taiwanese sovereign independence.

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