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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 06/04
Nepal Backgrounder: Ceasefire--Soft Landing or Strategic Pause?
April 10, 2003
Abstract
Driven by growing pressure on the battlefield, increasing international isolation and a sense that the time is ripe for political gains, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has engaged in a ceasefire with government forces since 29 January 2003. A 22- point "code of conduct" has been reached that will serve essentially as the military ground rules while peace negotiations proceed, although unfortunately each side has already accused the other of persistent violations and no strong, independent verification process is in place.
The potential for successful negotiations is higher than during a similar ceasefire that collapsed in 2001, but significant potential spoilers remain. Negotiations have been directly between the Maoists and representatives hand-picked by King Gyanendra. Mainstream political parties have not been given a seat at the table and continue to object that Prime Minister Lokendra ChandŐs government is unconstitutional and illegitimate. The parties, the Maoists and the palace remain locked in a threeway struggle for public support and strategic position, each hoping to use the other in its bid to control the state. The potential for miscalculation is considerable, and hardline elements in each camp appear willing to risk confrontation -- even new violence -- if they feel their needs are not being met.
