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CIAO DATE: 06/04

The Afghan Transitional Administration: Prospects and Perils

July 30, 2002

International Crisis Group

Abstract

The Emergency Loya Jirga, or grand national assembly, held from 10 to 21 June 2002 in Kabul was a small but critical step in Afghanistan's political development. It was an opportunity to accord national legitimacy to the peace process begun at Bonn in November 2001 but it produced mixed results. From a narrow perspective, it was a success: representatives from across Afghanistan came together to elect, or rather anoint, a head of state, and the major armed factions kept their hats in the political ring rather than resort to violence. Given the last three decades of war and turmoil, this is significant.

However, the Loya Jirga also failed in important respects: the opportunity to assert civilian leadership, promote democratic expression, and draw authority away from the warlords was squandered. An all-consuming concern for shortterm stability caused key Afghan and international decision-makers to bow to undemocratic sectarian demands. The Transitional Authority that resulted will be hampered by their compromises. The imperatives of the Coalition forces to root out terrorism continue to overshadow their concerns for long-term stability and participatory governance in Afghanistan. Unless U.S. political and military goals in Afghanistan can be reconciled, today's successes may become tomorrow's problems.

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