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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 06/04
Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation
June 11, 2002
Abstract
With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed "global war on terrorism" to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
The immediate cause of recent fighting has been the cross-border infiltration of militants into Indiancontrolled Kashmir. Despite reiterated pledges, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has yet to take decisive action to contain the Pakistan-based Islamist extremists responsible for much of the violence in Indian Kashmir. Pakistani security services also continue to support home-grown militants operating within Indian-controlled Kashmir. As events in May and June 2002 made clear, skirmishes along the Line of Control can quickly escalate into a far more dangerous situation with both New Delhi and Islamabad appearing all too willing to engage in nuclear sabre rattling. With one million Indian and Pakistani troops confronting each other across the Line of Control and artillery clashes occurring daily, both militaries have remained on high alert, moved heavy armour toward the border and reportedly deployed nuclearcapable missile batteries. Although both sides have taken some steps to climb down from their highest state of readiness, it would take little to rapidly escalate tensions again.
