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CIAO DATE: 05/04
The Loya Jirga: One Small Step Forward?
May 16, 2002
Abstract
The immensity of the task of rebuilding Afghanistan into something resembling a coherent state cannot be over-estimated. Nearly three decades of political instability Ð including many years of savage warfare, the wholesale destruction of political and physical infrastructure and the inflammation of ethnic divisions Ð are layered on top of a nation that was among the poorest and weakest governed even in its "golden age" before King Zahir Shah was deposed in 1973. AfghanistanÕs transition back to a minimum level of political and economic stability will require many small but crucial steps to keep it on course.
The hopes of most Afghans and the world at large that the peace process will continue to move forward are singularly focused on the Emergency Loya Jirga, which meets 10-16 June 2002 and for which, expectations are unreasonably high. Visions of a great leap forward in reconciliation are misplaced, and the danger of missteps is grave. A successful Loya Jirga would represent at best an incremental, albeit important advance in the process of stabilisation. However, an unproductive Loya Jirga could send Afghanistan tumbling back into the internecine conflict of the early 1990s.
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