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CIAO DATE: 05/04

Zimbabwe: In Search of a New Strategy

April 19, 2004

International Crisis Group

Abstract

For all the sound and fury of international condemnation and domestic opposition, octogenarian President Robert Mugabe maintains the upper hand in Zimbabwe. He has bludgeoned opposition parties and neutralised mass action strategies, minimised African criticism, maintained South Africa's friendship, and withstood sporadic pressure from the wider international community. It has been a masterful performance. It is also one that has done massive damage to Zimbabwe's economy, which is shrinking at world record speed. It is time to acknowledge the collective failure to date, re-evaluate strategies for resolving the crisis, and concentrate on the opportunity presented by the March 2005 parliamentary elections.

Though it retains some of the trappings of a multi-party democracy, Zimbabwe is de facto a one-party state controlled by a narrow group of ZANU-PF and military officials who have used its resources and institutions for personal enrichment. The ruling party gives its key supporters in the security services, the army and a large patronage network a piece of the action to ensure their commitment to the status quo. So little is left for social requirements that Zimbabwe, which exported food until recently, has the highest percentage in Africa of people being fed by international aid.

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