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CIAO DATE: 03/04
Côte d'Ivoire: "The War Is Not Yet Over"
November 2003
Abstract
"The war is not yet over", an ICG mission to Cˆte d'Ivoire repeatedly heard in November 2003. There are ominous signs that the Cˆte d'Ivoire peace process initiated in January 2003 has broken down. If the country goes back to war, it could well take all West Africa with it, endangering even recent progress in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The UN Security Council needs to take a leading role in the peace process, initially by upgrading its current presence to a full peacekeeping mission. This could include subsuming some 1,400 West African troops under the umbrella of an expanded operation.The UN should also step up cooperation between its ongoing peace operation in Liberia and its Ivorian peace mission, MINUCI.
The immediate concern has been instability and war threats following the resignation from the government in September of ministers from former rebel groups, (now called the Forces Nouvelles). They acted to protest what they considered obstacles, created by President Laurent Gbagbo, to implementation of the January 2003 Linas-Marcoussis peace accords, notably his appointment of ministers to the defence and interior portfolios in the government of national reconciliation in contravention of agreed procedures and his unwillingness to delegate executive powers to the prime minister and government as stipulated by the accords. Gbagbo's response was to call his opponents "kids with pistols" and "houseboys turned rebels". Disarmament of former rebels and other unofficial groups failed to begin as promised on 1 October and is inconceivable in the current climate. A declaration by the chief of army staff on 15 November that "the war could begin again at any moment", in response to which the Forces Nouvelles declared a state of emergency in their zone, shows how close the peace process is to foundering.