CIAO

CIAO DATE: 10/05

Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention

June 27, 2005

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Relations between Japan and North Korea continue to deteriorate due to concerns over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and past abductions of Japanese citizens. Nearly a decade and a half of efforts at normalising relations between the countries have faltered due to Pyongyang's unwillingness to give up that program or come clean over the abductions. For Japan, normalisation would help preserve regional stability and represent one more step toward closure on its wartime history; for North Korea, it would potentially produce the single greatest economic infusion for reviving its moribund economy. Indeed, the prospect of normalisation with Japan is one of the leading incentives that can be offered to North Korea in a deal to end the North's nuclear programs.

North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development, along with its history of infiltrating agents into Japan, have elevated the country's importance in Japanese defence planning, particularly after it tested a missile that over-flew Japan in August 1998. The North Korean threat has been cited as justification for missile defence and satellite development, constitutional revisions, and reinvigoration of the military alliance with the U.S. In fact, Japan's military posture is moving away from homeland defence towards readily deployable forces, although to date they have assumed non-combatrelated roles.

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