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CIAO DATE: 08/04

Tajikistan's Politics: Confrontation or Consolidation?

May 19, 2004

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Tajikistan's hard-won peace and stability is at risk. Indeed, the agreement that ended the bloody civil war in 1997 seemed briefly under threat in early 2004 when a series of confrontations between President Emomali Rakhmonov and former warlords sharply increased tensions in the country's murky political life. As parliamentary elections approach in early 2005 the president seems intent on consolidating his power, at the expense not only of the warlords, but also of opposition groups, including the legal Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). But this has dangers. Discontent is finding expression in radical fringe Islamist groups, and the increasing strength of a small clique around the president makes any battle against corruption and criminality increasingly difficult.

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