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CIAO DATE: 03/04

Zimbabwe At The Crossroads: Transition Or Conflict?

March 2002

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Despite broad international condemnation and a tremendous thirst among the people of Zimbabwe for change, the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government succeeded in systematically manipulating the March 2002 election process to ensure another six-year term for President Robert Mugabe. The strategic use of state violence and extra-legal electoral tinkering authorised by President Mugabe effectively thwarted the will of the people from being heard.

However, opinions are divided about the legitimacy of the electoral process and result. Much of this diversity is driven by strikingly different political and strategic considerations within Zimbabwe, the southern Africa region and the broader international community. Zimbabwean civil society organisations were unanimous that the process was neither free nor fair. Regional opinions were mixed, but driven by a fear of instability that could have unfolded if ZANU-PF had lost, as well as by concern about the rising potency of labour-based political movements. Although the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Parliamentary Forum declared the results to be neither free nor fair, the SADC Council of Ministers, the Organisation of African Unity and individual African government delegations declared the election to be free and fair or, in the case of South Africa, "legitimate". Beyond Africa, the condemnation was nearly universal. The Commonwealth and most country observer missions said the election was not free or fair. The 54-country member Commonwealth subsequently suspended Zimbabwe for one year as a result.

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