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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 07/04
Iran: Discontent and Disarray
October 15, 2003
Abstract
The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
Over recent months, speculation as to the direction of the Islamic Republic has been fuelled by the stiffening deadlock between conservatives and reformists, threats of resignation by the beleaguered president and reformist parliamentarians, and heightened activism by the student protest movement. The commotion is undeniable, as is the depth of popular dissatisfaction with the regime as a whole; measures contemplated by the conservative establishment are unlikely to resolve what has become a crisis of legitimacy. But for now, international policy-makers need to recognise that internal paralysis is a far more probable outcome than radical change.
