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CIAO DATE: 03/04

Power and Wealth Sharing: Make or Break Time in Sudan's Peace Process

December 2002

International Crisis Group

Abstract

The latest phase of the negotiations in Machakos, Kenya closed on 18 November 2002 with the signing of an important new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on power sharing and an extension of the earlier MOU on cessation of hostilities and unimpeded aid access. Significant progress was made during this phase. The Khartoum government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are slowly, painstakingly elaborating the structures of governance and wealth sharing arrangements through intense haggling - for example, what proportion of seats southerners will have in the legislative bodies and the oil revenues that will go to a Southern Reconstruction Fund.

Though the final protocol on power and wealth sharing that the mediators sought was in the end not signed, there was more movement toward a comprehensive peace agreement than the MOU reflected. Both parties wanted to retain manoeuvring room for making tradeoffs at a later stage and so held to some maximalist positions. They will continue to do so during the adjournment while trying to persuade their constituencies that they are battling extremists on the other side of the table, and wait until the negotiating endgame to explore bottom line compromises.

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