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CIAO DATE: 07/04

Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles

December 18, 2000

International Crisis Group

Abstract

Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.

The elections highlighted once again the near complete failure -- in the face of determined nationalist extremism -- of an international approach that places emphasis on hopes that moderate, co-operative Bosnian partners will come to power through elections. The elections also revealed the complete unsuitability of the present Dayton constitutional structures, as well as the international community implementing structures and policies. The false premises upon which current international community policy is based will continue to produce few positive results, particularly in the near powervacuum created by these elections. It thus remains the case, that were it not for the significant international presence in Bosnia, and especially the NATO presence, the Dayton Peace Accords would rapidly unravel.

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