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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 03/04
Sudan Endgame
July 2003
Abstract
The Sudan peace process is in its endgame. One year ago, the parties signed the Machakos Protocol, a provisional "grand bargain" that effectively traded a southern self-determination referendum for Sharia in the North. It is time for a second "grand bargain" on the remaining issues such as the status of the national capital, the presidency and the security arrangements to close the deal. This requires major tradeoffs - or new solutions - to meet the bottom lines of the parties and protect the original Protocol as well as incentives for implementation. Commitments on the U.S.-Sudan bilateral relationship and assurances that the U.S. will remain closely involved in the post-agreement process are the glue without which a deal is unlikely to stick. With them, peace has a chance.
The mediators will put forth a draft framework document in mid-July on which they will seek agreement by mid-August from the government of Sudan and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (hereafter SPLA) to end a civil war that has already lasted more than 20 years. The process, under the auspices of the regional African organisation, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), has come closer than any of its predecessors to peace. However, the last steps will be the most difficult, and a misstep could plunge the country back into full scale civil war.
