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CIAO DATE: 07/04

Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege

September 21, 2001

International Crisis Group

Abstract

The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.

The open quarrel may force entirely unnecessary elections that could prove harmful to the reform process. The crisis is also likely to block the already slow work of the Serbian parliament in its current session. At the same time, it has presented the government with a clear opportunity to make its work more transparent and accountable.

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