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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 03/04
The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations
August 2002
Abstract
Prospects are still weak for a ceasefire agreement in Burundi that includes all rebel factions. Despite the Arusha agreement in August 2000 and installation of a transition government on 1 November 2001, the warring parties, the Burundi army and the various factions of the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People/National Liberation Forces (PALIPEHUTU-FNL) and of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), are still fighting. Neither side has been able to gain a decisive military advantage, although the army recently claimed several important victories.
A ceasefire – the missing element in the Arusha framework – has been elusive despite on-going activity by the South African facilitation team to initiate joint and separate talks with the rebels. In February 2002, the transition government and the facilitation team requested Tanzania's help to bring the rebels to the table. Since 28 July 2002, the CNDD-FDD factions have been holding internal consultations in Dar-es-Salaam that should lead to direct negotiations with the transition government. Global negotiations are to start in Tanzania on 6 August. A subsequent regional summit should evaluate the achievements of those talks. Its unspoken principles will be to decide whether sanctions should be applied to those who remain outside the process. So far both factions of the CNDD-FDD have shown signs of commitment to the talks but the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is perceived as a stumbling block and a likely target for sanctions.
