CIAO DATE: 10/05

Whither Ripeness Theory?

Abstract

Ripeness theory, in its most common version, concerns the psychological states that encourage parties who are involved in severe conflict to move into negotiation—either bilateral or mediated. This monograph first summarizes ripeness theory as it stands today, while drawing on the writings of I. William Zartman, the founder of this field, and several other international relations scholars. Then it presents a critique, which recasts this important theory in conventional psychological terms; uses the language of variables rather than necessary states; and focuses on the psychological states of individual actors rather than on joint psychological states.

The recast theory, which is called "readiness theory," argues that an actor's readiness for conflict resolution is a function of both motivation to end the conflict and optimism about the success of negotiation. This revision appears to (a) fit more historical cases than the original; (b) be more heuristic in the sense of suggesting testable theoretical propositions; and (c) have greater reach, thus casting light on concession making, agreement, compliance, and third-party activation.

Other sections of the monograph discuss preliminaries about the motivation to end conflict; they argue that the motivation to end conflict encourages optimism about the success of negotiation. The final section presents a model of the political processes underlying ripeness, which then builds on readiness theory. The model defines ripeness as the breadth of the "central coalition" of ready individuals and of subgroups, a coalition that spans both sides of the conflict divide.

Full Text (PDF format, 54 pages, 363.2 KB)