CIAO DATE: 07/03

Meeting the North Korean Nuclear Challenge

Executive Summary

Over the past two years, North Korea has advanced its nuclear weapons program and increasingly emphasized its need for a nuclear capability. Since October 2002 when it admitted to having a clandestine program to make highly enrichment uranium (HEU), the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), asserted it possesses nuclear weapons, and declared that it is reprocessing its spent fuel. In May 2003, Pyongyang declared that its 1992 "denuclearization" pledge with South Korea was dead. North Korean violations of the Agreed Framework, the basis of U.S.-North Korea relations since 1994, have left that agreement in tatters.

North Korean assertions cannot all be independently confirmed by U.S. intelligence. Even more uncertain are North Korean intentions. Some believe North Korea is seeking a serious nuclear weapons capability as its only means to deter to an American attack. Others believe that North Korea is interested in negotiations and prepared to bargain away its nuclear capabilities in exchange for American security guarantees, diplomatic relations, and economic assistance (from either the United States or other countries).

Whatever Pyongyang's motivations, recent events point to North Korea becoming a more capable—and avowed—nuclear state. The United States has not yet found a way to prevent this eventuality.

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