CIAO DATE: 10/04

Securing Afghanistan: Entering a Make-or-Break Phase?

Abstract

Afghanistan has reached a critical point in its struggle for post-Taliban recovery. The stakes are high and bound to influence enormously the future directions of Islamic extremism, global terrorism, a nuclear-armed Pakistan, and the stability of south and central Asia.

During the past year, major problems festered rather than being treated, mainly because Iraq diverted high-level U.S. attention, resources, and leadership. Aggravating these problems were internal tensions withinthe Afghan Transitional Authority of President Hamid Karzai, Pashtun resentment toward theauthority, and the emergence of a seriousTaliban-led insurgency in the south.

To correct these problems, major additional resources were allocated, Operation Enduring Freedom adopted a new focus on security and stability, and the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization agreed to expand the mandate of the International Security Assistance Force beyond Kabul. The successful adoption of a new constitution at the special national assembly (Loya Jirga) in January 2004 by a strong moderate consensus was a significant step forward in national unity, reduced Pashtun resentment, and strengthened the hand of President Karzai as a national leader.

Even so, critical ground and time have been lost, due in part to doubts regarding America’s commitment. Success is not assured and will require a longer, harder, and more painful slog for Afghanistan, the United States, and the international coalition, as well as sustained U.S. leadership commitment.

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