CIAO DATE: 04/02

Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective

This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an am-biguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.

The future prospects for closer Japan-ROK security cooperation look bright. Japan has grown increasingly sensitive to the threat from North Korea, particularly since Pyongyang test fired the Taepo-dong ballistic missile over Japanese airspace on August 31, 1998. With the establishment of the Korean Peninsula Economic Development Organization (KEDO) in 1995 and the revision of the U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines in 1997, Japan has taken its first explicit role in the security of the peninsula. The growth of bilateral Japan-ROK trade has also contributed to strategic convergence between the two countries, particularly after Japan contributed billions of dollars to help rescue the South Korean economy (and exposed Japa-nese banks) from the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998. Japan and South Korea have also succeeded in resolving contentious historical and fisheries issues. These positive trends and accomplishments culminated in ROK president Kim Dae Jung and Japanese prime minister Obuchi Keizo's declaration of a "New Japan-ROK Partnership for the Twenty-First Century" in October 1998.

At the same time, however, bilateral Japanese and ROK policymaking remains fluid and inconsistent. With large Korean communities in Japan, a thirty-five year legacy of Japanese colonial occupation of Korea, and direct economic competition in fisheries, electronics, steel, and other sectors, Japan and the ROK each have significant constituencies and emotions that can get in the way of the positive trends in bilateral relations. There are patterns in Japan-ROK relations that could, in a different strategic context, drive the two countries further apart. A dramatic downturn in Asia's economic recovery, sudden reunification of the peninsula, or changes in the United States' security posture in the region are all variables that could bring enormous volatility to Japan-ROK ties.

It is beyond the powers of the United States to resolve the cultural, historical, and territorial issues that complicate Japan-ROK relations. In fact, active U.S. intervention in these issues would probably be counterproductive to our own alliance relationships with each country. However, the United States can reinforce the positive patterns of Japan-ROK cooperation by maintaining a focus on close alliance management with each country and by tak-ing a lead in coordinating trilaterally the diplomacy and defense planning for the peninsula. This monograph recommends just such a policy of "trilateralism" with Japan and the ROK. The essay begins by connecting U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral relations to U.S. interests in Asia. It then examines the evolution and contemporary dynamics of Japan-ROK relations in order to identify potential sources of convergence and friction between the two countries. Finally, the paper assesses the current patterns of U.S. policy toward Seoul and Tokyo and recommends steps to strengthen ties between Japan and the ROK as well as the overall trilateral relationship with the United States.

Full Text of Discussion Papers Article (PDF, 32pgs, 112 Kb)