CIAO DATE: 05/02

Caribbean Security on the Eve of the 21st Century

Complexity, Change, and Challenge

This study assesses the Caribbean security landscape on the eve of the fast-approaching new century with a view to considering what the future portends in the security arena. Engaging in even guarded prospection during this period of history is particularly difficult, but also exciting, partly because of dramatic changes that the world began undergoing during the 1980s. These changes make scholars and statesmen approach the new century with a combined sense of expectancy and apprehension. The expectancy stems from the anticipated benefits of the end of the Cold War, among other things; the apprehension is driven by the mmay unknowns that tile dynamics of changing international relations hold for the future. This is true for the Caribbean as it is for other regions of the world, and it holds true for security as it does for other issue areas.

The contemporary security scene in the Caribbean is characterized by complexity, change, and challenge. Complexity, in part, arises from the fact that the region comprises small, subordinate states that are vulnerable to a wide range of military, political, and economic actions by states near and far. But part of the complexity also is derived from the fact that Caribbean countries are "also subject to the dictates of nonstate actors, some of which wield more economic and political power than some states. The complexity/'actor also inheres in the reality that because of the dramatic changes referred to above, hemispheric and global turbulence sometimes makes a mockery of attempts at rational policy calculations.

The global turbulence and the transformations being experienced make change inevitable, if not always desired. Understandably, some of the dynamics of change in the Caribbean and elsewhere capture some of the elements of the "old" situation; some "old era" issues retain flleir salience. In many cases, plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. Scholars and statesmen are progressively coming to terms with the complexity factor and are constantly coping with the turbulence and change. But no longer is there the luxury of first trying to interpret the world before attempting to change it. Now part of the challenge involves having to manage change while interpreting events and outcomes.

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