CIAO DATE: 08/04

The Humanitarian Cost of a War in Iraq

Iraq has been plagued by more than two decades of repression and devastation; it has witnessed three major armed conflicts —the Iraq–Iran war, the 1991 Gulf War, and the strife following Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait — as well as almost twelve years of UN sanctions, leaving the country’s infrastructure weak and its people heavily dependent on government food rations. Consequently, a humanitarian catastrophe will only worsen if Iraq is attacked. Although the exact consequences cannot yet be measured, the UN and relief agencies worldwide are trying to calculate the real cost of another war in Iraq in order to prepare for what may lie ahead.

This kind of planning has thus far been politically unfeasible for both U.S. officials and the NGO community. In order for any U.S.–based organization to visit Iraq and become actively engaged in contingency planning, it must receive an authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department. The Bush Administration has been hesitant to give these groups permission to go to Iraq because it would be seen as a step closer to war, especially as the United States insists that the decision to wage war has not yet been made. Moreover, humanitarian groups do not want to be seen as helping plan for a war. But if war breaks out in the next few weeks, relief workers will not have sufficient resources inside Iraq to execute an emergency response plan.

The United Nations — one of the only bodies that maintain a continuous relationship with the Iraqi government through its oil–for–food program — recently issued a confidential report outlining how UN agencies and relief groups might cope with the humanitarian crisis that would come out of an attack on Iraq. The report foresees grave humanitarian consequences derived from "a large scale and protracted ground offensive, supported by aerial and conventional bombardment." Major results include the outbreak of disease "of epidemic if not pandemic proportions;" several hundred thousand war casualties; the shortage of medical items and personnel; a flood of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs); massive food shortages; and the lack of potable water.

The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and World Food Programme estimate that over three million people will be in dire need of food and will require "therapeutic feeding," specifically women and children. According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates, close to 900,000 refugees will require assistance in addition to the 130,000 existing refugees in Iraq, and some two million IDPs will require temporary shelter. The electricity network is expected to be "seriously degraded" resulting from surgical airstrikes. If this occurs, the Iraqi water and sewage systems, which depend on electricity and are already in a weary state, would collapse, leaving millions of people vulnerable to diseases and epidemics. To that end, UNICEF estimates that approximately 39 percent of the population will need potable water in the short term. In an attempt to reduce the impact of a possible war on the Iraqi population, UNICEF is undertaking a 5 day campaign, February 23–27, to vaccinate four million children against measles and polio. Additionally, UNICEF has had several hundred tons of supplies brought into Iraq including food, medicine and water.

The UN report also clearly points that comparisons to the humanitarian crisis created by the 1991 Gulf War are extremely inadequate because almost 12 years of UN sanctions, aimed at forcing the country’s disarmament, have left over 60% of the population, or 16 million people, almost totally dependent on government handouts for their basic needs. For this very reason, an interruption in food supplies would lead to a severe food crisis, and according to UN estimates food will need to be provided to approximately 5.4 million in the short term, and eventually to at least 23 million.

While these staggering statistics are only estimations, the damage to the Iraqi people would undoubtedly be great if Iraq is attacked. Even a short–term interruption of water and sewage services or the oil–for–food program may prove to be beyond the means of international aid groups and the U.S. military.