CIAO DATE: 3/00

Morbidity and Mortality among Iraqi Children from 1990 through 1998:
Assessing the Impact of the Gulf War and Economic Sanctions

1. List of Tables and Figures
   

2. Acknowledgments
   
   

3. Glossary of Terms
   
   

4. Summary of General Findings
   By Richard Garfield Columbia University
   

5. Foreword: Assessing the Human Tragedy in Iraq
   By Geroge A. Lopez, and David Cortright
   

6. Introduction
   • Has the Embargo Killed Iraqi Children?
   • Experiences of Other Embargoed Countries
   • Initiation of Sanctions

7. Prewar, Presanctions Mortality Estimates
   • Data Sources
   • Pre-1990 Mortality Estimates
   • Sanctions Prior to the Gulf War
   • The Gulf War and Postwar Uprisings
   • Military Deaths in the Gulf War
   • Assessing Mortality by Survey During Sanctions

8. The Purchase of Humanitarian Goods during the Embargo
   • Water and Sanitation Systems
   • Health Services
   • Changes in Health Status
   • Education/Literacy
   • Immunizations
   • Income and Food Prices

9. Nutrition
   • Oil for Food Implementation
   • Assessing Nutrition by Survey During Sanctions

10. Estimating Mortality from Data on Malnutrition
    • Methods and Results
    
    Model 1: Correlating Malnutrition and Mortality Data
    Model 2: Projections from the Mortality Rate in Baghdad
    Model 3: Comparison with Eight Malnutrition and Mortality Studies
    Model 4: Comparison to Countries with Similar Expected Population Attributable Risk
    • Exploratory Multiple Regressions
      
      Imputing Values for Missing Variables
      Validity Check on Mortality Estimates

11. Implications of Mortality Estimates
    • Attributable Risk of Political, Economic, and Social Disruption in the 1990s
    • Comparisons with Iraqi Reports of Excess Deaths

12. The Significance of Mortality Changes
    
    

13. Conclusions
    
    

14. Afterword: Apportioning Responsibility for the Iraq Humanitarian Crisis
    By George A. Lopez, and David Cortright
    

15. References
    

16. Appendix A
    

17. Appendix B
    

18. General Listing of Reports on Iraq