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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 04/01
Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply
Steve Fetter
The Center for International Security and Cooperation
May 1999
Introduction
In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse—gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. 1 The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
Both groups overstate the importance of near—term reductions in emissions. The modest reductions called for by the Kyoto agreement are a sensible first step, but only if they are part of a larger and longer—term strategy. Indeed, near—term reductions can be counterproductive if they are not implemented in a manner that is consistent with a long—term strategy to stabilize greenhouse—gas concentrations.
The centerpiece of any long—term strategy to limit climate change is a transformation in world energy supply in which traditional fossil fuels are replaced by energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide. This transformation must begin in earnest in the next ten to twenty years, and must be largely complete by 2050. Today, however, all carbon—free energy sources have serious economic, technological, or environmental drawbacks. If economically competitive and environmentally attractive substitutes are not widely available in the first half of the next century, it will be impossible to stabilize greenhouse—gas concentrations at acceptable levels. The most urgent need today—more urgent than immediate reductions in emissions—is a broad—based program of energy research and development aimed at eliminating these drawbacks.
This report outlines the changes in energy supply that will be required over the next fifty years. I describe the ultimate objective of controls on greenhouse—gas emissions and set a stabilization target for greenhouse—gas concentrations that is designed to achieve this objective. I translate this target into limits on the emission of carbon dioxide and the burning of fossil fuels over the next century, and estimate requirements for carbon—free energy supply over this period. Finally, I describe options for achieving this transformation in world energy supply and outline near—term research and development priorities.
In briefest summary, an equivalent doubling of carbon dioxide is the highest stabilization target that can be justified given what we know about the sensitivity of climate to increase greenhouse—gas concentrations and the impacts of climate change. In order to stabilize green—house gases at this level, traditional fossil fuels could supply no more energy in 2050 than they supply today. Global energy consumption is expected to double or triple over the next fifty years, however, driven by increases in population and per—capita income in developing countries. The amount of energy supplied by carbon—free sources must therefore grow by a factor of ten to twenty during the next half century, from 15 percent of commercial energy supply to 60 to 80 percent.
Only five energy sources are capable of providing a substantial fraction of this non—carbon supply: solar, fission, “decarbonized” fossil fuels, and, to a lesser extent, biomass and wind. Other potential sources are either too limited (hydro—, tidal power, and hot—water geother—mal), too expensive (ocean thermal and wave energy), or too immature (fusion and hot—rock geothermal) to make a substantial contribution by 2050. Each of the five major alternatives currently has significant technical, economic, and/or environmental handicaps. Solar is benign but expensive, and would require massive energy storage or intercontinental transmission. Fission can produce electricity at competitive prices today, but suffers from public—acceptance problems related to the risks of accidents, waste disposal, and the spread of nuclear weapons. Coal is cheap and abundant, but the cost and environmental impact of capturing, transporting, and disposing of the carbon dioxide could be unacceptably high. Biomass has the potential to supply low—cost portable fuels, but energy crops could compete with food production and the preservation of natural ecosystems. Wind is economically competitive in certain areas, but attractive sites are limited.
The most urgent need, therefore, is an intensive program of research and development to address these shortcomings, and thereby ensure that abundant, inexpensive, and acceptable substitutes will be available worldwide when they are needed. Unfortunately, current energy research and development programs, in the United States and worldwide, are woefully inadequate in scope and in scale to meet this challenge. A doubling or tripling in energy R&D can easily be justified based on the need to avoid dangerous changes in climate, as well as the desire to avoid air pollution and to protect against disruptions in energy supply. As a modest step to correcting the deficiency of energy R&D, I would propose instituting a tax of $1 per ton of carbon, with the proceeds directed to a fund for carbon—free energy R&D. A tax of $1 per ton would raise fossil—fuel prices by only about 1 percent, while having the potential to avoid much larger taxes—or even larger climate—change damages—in the not—too—distant future.
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Endnotes
Note 1: “The Parties included in Annex I [the industrialized countries] shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the green-house gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their assigned amounts...with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.” Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, FCCC/CP/1997/L.7/Add.1 (10 December 1997), Article 3.1. Available at http://www.unfccc.de/fccc/docs/cop3/protocol.html . Back.
