CIAO DATE: 08/02

China Rising: New Challenges to the U.S. Security Posture

Abstract

The future strategic capabilities of the People's Republic of China (PRC) will substantially differ from the past; both numerical increases and significant qualita-tive improvements are likely.

Key information gaps, aggravated by a lack of transparency, hamper our understand-ing of China's expanding nuclear and missile capabilities, doctrinal innovations, and evolv-ing strategic intentions.

While U.S. and PRC interests intersect in a number of areas, there are also important differences. The status and future disposition of Taiwan is perhaps the single greatest flashpoint for conflict, a case in which U.S. deterrence of a range of PRC military steps may fail and escalation ensue.

A rising power, China is striving to become a heavyweight in Asia. The long-term complementarity of U.S. and PRC inter-ests is predicated in large part on Beijing's strategic choices.

In a context of uncertainty, prudent planning requires that the United States develop and deploy deterrent and defense capabilities that appropriately safeguard national interests.

Some claims by opponents of ballistic missile defense that prospective deployments will trigger a reactive Chinese arms buildup of long-range and/or short-range missile systems tend to confuse cause and effect. China is modernizing and numerically in-creasing its deployed missile forces; ballistic missile defense is a countermeasure against that buildup, not its cause.

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