CIAO DATE: 08/04

Less is More: The Future of U.S.–Arab Military Relations

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military presence has expanded in only one region of the world — the Middle East. Yet, some allies in the region increasingly view the U.S. presence in the Gulf as a political liability, and support has eroded for the mission for which it was originally designed. The expansion of the U.S. military presence in the region resulting from the recent invasion of Iraq has again put U.S. posture in the Middle East in the spotlight. The implications of regime change in Iraq for the future of U.S.–Arab military relations and the U.S. military presence in the Middle East remain far from clear. What is clear, however, is that a new set of problems and challenges will follow the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Most prominent among them are the risks inherent in a lengthy U.S. military occupation of an Arab state in the heart of the Middle East.

Instabilities in the region will continue to require Washington’s attention. A withdrawal to an “over the horizon” military posture would be premature. But while some of the problems will necessitate a continued military presence in the region, others will be aggravated by that very presence. In the post–9/11 world, the old “bargain” Washington made with local regimes in support of the political status quo may no longer be valid. . .