CIAO DATE: 07/02

Nasty, Brutish and Long: America's War on Terrorism

Ivo H. Daalder
James M. Lindsay

December 2001

Brookings Institution

 

Abstract

The post-Cold War era ended abruptly on the morning of September. 11, 2001. From the moment terrorists turned jetliners into weapons of mass destruction, the United States was inescapably engaged in a new "war" against global terrorism. The Bush administration now intends to make that war the central organizing principle of America's foreign and defense policies.

This war is not like the one against Iraq a decade ago, when the United States and its allies had a clear territorial objective that could be swiftly achieved. It is also not like the war over Kosovo in 1999, in which the Serbs relented after 78 days of bombing Yugoslavia and NATO suffered no combat deaths. And while the attacks on New York and Washington immediately brought to mind memories of Pearl Harbor, the United States campaign against terrorism will not be like America's effort to force Japan's unconditional surrender.

The campaign against terrorism is instead much more like the cold war of the past century. Like the fight against Soviet communism, today's campaign against terrorism is likely to be nasty, brutish, and long. Because of the diverse nature of the threat, the United States has no clear vision of when or how the war will end. Complete success in the military operations in Afghanistan will not necessarily mean victory. Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network of terrorists extends well beyond Afghanistan. It could easily reconstitute itself even if the United States captures or kills bin Laden and his lieutenants. Future attacks might even involve the use of sophisticated germ warfare or radiological weapons, if not nuclear weapons.

As at the start of the cold war, the United States response has begun with the arduous task of assembling a global coalition. President Harry Truman's rousing call in 1947 "to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures" set the course of United States history for the next four decades. President Bush's invitation to every nation to join the United States in "civilization's fight" was phrased as expansively-and intended to be as enduring. In the new war against terrorism the United States also faces ideologically motivated foes who do not shrink from death. America's fight will end only when, as Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said, Americans can once again get on with their daily lives without fear or thought of a possible terrorist attack. That is a tall order.

A critical question as the United States enters this new "cold war" is whether it has learned the lessons of the last war. Will Washington again overemphasize military force to achieve its goals and give short shrift to the non-military instruments of statecraft? Will it again focus so narrowly on battle that it forgets other important foreign-policy goals? Will it cut deals today to gain support from other nations that will return to haunt it down the road-in much the same way that supporting the shah led to a deeply hostile Iran and arming Afghan rebels to fight the Soviet Union contributed to the terrorist threat the United States faces today? Will it repudiate its own values at home as it tries to fend off an enemy abroad?

It is crucial that the United States fight its new war against terrorism with the dedication and vigor that President Bush has promised. It is also crucial that it fight that war wisely. Washington must recognize the complexities of its new fight-and the pitfalls that lie before it.

Too often, globalization is either glorified or vilified as an end in itself. Far better to judge it critically on the extent to which it advances our highest aspirations, such as peace, freedom, and broadly shared prosperity. September 11 puts at risk many of the gains globalization has brought, but it likewise may present opportunities to smooth some of the rough edges of the globalization associated with American policies of the past decade. To skip to the punch line, the future trajectory of globalization is not preordained; it lies largely in our own hands.

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