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CIAO DATE: 6/5/2006
Iraq's Evolving Insurgency and the Risk of Civil War
Anthony H. Cordesman
April 2006
Abstract
The rising insurgency in Iraq has become a “war after the war” that threatens to divide Iraq and thrust it into full-scale civil war. It dominates the struggle to reshape Iraq as a modern state, has become a growing threat to the Gulf Region, and has become linked to the broader struggle between Sunni and Shi'ite Islamist extremism and moderation and reform throughout the Islamic world.
In military terms, the insurgency has evolved into a “long war,” or war of attrition that has produced ten times as many Coalition casualties as the fight to topple the Regime and defeat Iraq's army. It is a conflict with no clear end and which can either gradually fade if the Iraqi political process and development of Iraqi forces succeeds; or suddenly divide the country in ways that no amount of Coalition effort may be able to avoid.
