Columbia International Affairs Online
CIAO DATE: 6/5/2006
Jafaari and Political Reality in Iraq: A Tipping Year At Best
Anthony H. Cordesman
April 2006
Abstract
Bad as the present political uncertainties are in Iraq, they can only be the prelude to an even worse set of divisive debates and issues. The creation of a new government can only make the official opening of Pandora's box.
Whatever happens to Ibrahim Jafaari, it will not bring political unity to Iraq. Better leaders are clearly available. Jafaari was broadly recognized as a failure in his last government, not just for his politics but also for his inability to govern or to bring political progress. Jafaari's current survival is not a product of democracy, but rather the result of the fact Moqtada Sadr was bribed with 30 seats to stay in the Shi'ite coalition, and he could bully and threaten his way into forcing Jafaari on the Shi'ite coalition.
