CIAO DATE: 02/2013

Reassessing the Gulf Military Balance - Part One: Conventional and Asymmetric Forces

October 2012

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

The ongoing crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, uncertain diplomatic efforts, and the steady build up of forces in the Gulf creates a growing risk of some form of military clash between Iran and the US and its allies. Such a clash can take many different forms, each presenting differing levels of risks, costs, and potential benefits. The Burke Chair has updated its analysis of the Gulf military balance and is issuing the update in two parts. The first part covers the conventional military balance, Iran’s steady build-up of conventional and asymmetric forces, and the US and Arab Gulf response. It focuses heavily on Iran’s asymmetric forces because they present a threat to both Gulf commerce and the military forces of both the US and its regional allies. These forces are difficult to detect and counter, and can be used with a degree of deniability to harass or disrupt military operations and commerce in the Gulf. Iran’s asymmetric forces include both its conventional military and a wide range of other units like the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Al Quds Force. They play both an offensive and a defensive role in Iranian strategy. They are designed to permit the Islamic Republic to apply pressure at a regional and global level and provide it with deterrence against American or Israeli attacks or military pressure.

Resource link: Reassessing the Gulf Military Balance - Part One: Conventional and Asymmetric Forces [PDF] - 2.9M