CIAO DATE: 08/2012

The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey

May 2012

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

he Burke Chair is issuing a new, expanded edition of its overview of The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey. This analysis is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/files/publication/120514_MENA_Stability.pdf The current series of crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have many causes, and causes that that vary sharply by country. The political dynamics of these crises, however, are only part of the story. An examination of the broader demographic, economic, and security trends in the MENA region shows how critical these factors are in shaping public anger and discontent. They also show the critical role of governance, social change, and justice systems in shaping and dealing with each nation’s problems, and how difficult it will be to deal with these underlying causes in less than a decade. The charts and tables on economies, per capita incomes, populations, and population growth rates warn that few current regimes are likely to survive the forces of change, and that most revolutionary regimes will fail as well.

Resource link: The Underlying Causes of Stability and Unrest in the Middle East and North Africa: An Analytic Survey [PDF] - 5.6M