CIAO DATE: 08/2012

Reassessing the Gulf Military Balance - Part One: Conventional and Asymmetric Forces

July 2012

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Abstract

With each failed nuclear negotiation, it seems increasingly less likely that a political solution will be reached regarding Tehran’s increasing uranium enrichment. As the crisis over Iran’s nuclear ambitions draws on, and diplomatic efforts fail to bring resolution, a military confrontation of some sort—while by no means certain—becomes increasingly possible. Such a clash can manifest itself in many different forms, each presenting differing levels of risks, costs, and potential benefits. The Burke Chair has updated its analysis of the Gulf military balance and is issuing the update in two parts. The first part covers the conventional military balance Iran’s steady build-up of asymmetric forces. Iran’s asymmetric forces are particularly important because they present a threat to both Gulf commerce and the military forces of both the US and its regional allies. Unlike Iran’s missile forces, these forces are difficult to detect and counter, and can be used with a degree of deniability to harass or disrupt military operations and commerce in the Gulf.

Resource link: Reassessing the Gulf Military Balance - Part One: Conventional and Asymmetric Forces [PDF] - 3.1M