CIAO DATE: 07/02

Proliferation in the "Axis of Evil":
North Korea, Iran, and Iraq

Part One
North Korean Force Trends

US Department of Defense Estimate of North Korean Actions and Intentions Involving Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons

Objectives, Strategies, and Resources

Despite the June 2000 summit meeting and meetings between high level U.S. and North Korean officials on the one hand, and economic turmoil and continued food shortages on the other, we believe North Korea remains committed to maintaining strong military forces. These forces continue to be deployed close to the border with South Korea in an offensively oriented posture, and North Korea's NBC and missile programs likely remain key components of its overall security strategy. The most likely large-scale regional war scenario over the near term, which would involve the United States, would be on the Korean peninsula. In recent years, North Korea has continued to pose a com-plex security challenge to the United States and its allies. Prior to the 1994 Agreed Framework, North Korea is believed to have produced and diverted sufficient plutonium for at least one, and possibly two, nuclear weapons. In addition, although North Korea froze the production of plutonium in 1994, there are concerns that North Korea is continuing with some elements of a nuclear weapons program. North Korea also possesses stockpiles of chemical weapons, which could be used in the event of renewed hostilities on the peninsula. Research and development into biological agents and toxins suggest North Korea may have a biological weapons capability. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles available for use against targets on the peninsula, some of which are capable of reaching tar-gets in Japan. Its missile capabilities are increasing at a steady pace, and it has progressed to producing medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). North Korea also has continued development of even longer-range missiles that would be able to threaten areas well beyond the region, including portions of the continental United States. As a result of U.S. diplomatic efforts, however, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has maintained a moratorium on launches of long-range missiles for over one year.

Lastly, North Korea's willingness to sell its ballistic missiles and related missile technologies and, potentially, share its NBC expertise are major proliferation concerns. North Korea's centrally planned economic system has been crippled over the past decade and is unable to meet the most basic needs of its people, although there is limited evidence that the economic decline may have slowed. Certainly, international food aid administered through the United Nations World Food Program has played a significant role in alleviating the food crisis. North Korea likely will continue to require inter-national food assistance for the foreseeable future. The regime continues with its decades old policy to fund its military programs, including NBC and missile forces, at the expense of its civil economy.

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