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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 10/05
Update on the Ratification Debates: What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? Results of and EPIN Survey of National Experts
Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, and Julia De Clerck-Sachsse
EPIN Working Paper No. 13
May 2005
Introduction
The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of our initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France: within only 10 days the 'yes' camp slid from a previously stable figure of around 60% to below 50%. Our report had concluded that "if the reasons for a particular European compromise are not made transparent to the citizens, issues can be used in a divisive way at the national level". It therefore called for a stronger European dimension in the national debates and expressed the hope that politicians and the media would play their role in stressing the common European significance of the European Constitution.
While the developments in France prove quite strikingly the problems that a lack of a European dimension can cause, they have also raised awareness among political leaders and the media: debate about the ratification as a European issue has received a boost, because the prospect of a French 'no' brought home to national and European level opinion-formers that, whatever the reasons for a possible 'no' vote may be, its consequences would be felt across the whole of the European Union. This realisation is not yet tantamount to a genuinely European debate on the issue(s) at stake, but it is an important reminder of the difficulties of ratifying a European Treaty by means of 25 different national procedures.
Despite the media interest currently focusing very much on France, this update report once more intends to give an overview of the state of affairs in all member states. At the time of writing, seven countries have completed the ratification procedures (EL, ES, HU, IT, LT, SL and SK) and in three others one chamber of parliament has already ratified the Treaty (BE, AT and DE) (Table 1). The successful referendum in Spain has shown that popular support can be won, even though mobilisation and consequently the turnout were low.
