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CIAO DATE: 3/5/2007
Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability
Julia Choucair
December 2006
Abstract
Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
Launched by King Hussein in the late 1980s and continuing under his son Abdullah II after he took power in 1999, Jordan's reform process has brought about positive changes. Political parties are now legal, parliamentary elections have become more regular, and significant economic reforms have been introduced. The process, however, has not resulted in democratic change. Rather, it has been a halfhearted and hesitant top-down reform effort, driven by the monarchy's desire to build its support base and maintain domestic political stability in the face of significant external challenges. As a result, the changes have been limited. Many initiatives have been launched and committees created, but substantive change has not matched the rhetoric. While there is now open debate about the fundamental problems in the Jordanian political system, real structural reforms are not on the agenda. The monarchy retains its monopoly on power in the country, and major decisions are still made by institutions not accountable to the electorate, such as the royal court and the intelligence services.
