CIAO DATE: 10/05

Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Abstract

This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still others a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?

The second set of papers will try to answer that question through case studies of individual countries. Each case study will assess the reforms that have been introduced in a particular country. Are they meaningful reforms, as the governments claim, or are they simply placebos ordered by still authoritarian regimes in an attempt to pacify domestic and international public opinion, as the opposition often argues? In other words, are the reforms significant or cosmetic? And if the reforms introduced so far are not significant, what steps would be? Answering these questions is a demanding task, because what constitutes significant rather than cosmetic change at any given moment varies from country to country, depending on the prevalent conditions and past experience. It is also an important task not only in trying to assess the significance of the change taking place, but also in helping policy makers focus their efforts.

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