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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 02/05
Report on an Analysis of the Representativeness of the Second Audit Sample, and the Correlation between Petition Signers and the Yes Vote in the Aug. 15, 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum in Venezuela
Carter Center
August 2004
This study was conducted by The Carter Center and confirmed by the OAS in response to a written request from Sumate presented to The Carter Center Sept. 7, 2004. Sumate asked that The Carter Center evaluate a study performed by Professors Ricardo Hausmann and Roberto Rigobon.
The Hausmann/Rigobon study states the second audit conducted Aug. 18-20 and observed by The Carter Center and the OAS was based on a sample that was not random and representative of the universe of all voting centers using voting machines in the Aug. 15, 2004, recall referendum. The study further indicates that the correlation coefficient (elasticity) for the correlation between the signers and the YES votes for the sample was 10 percent higher than that for the universe. The Hausmann/Rigobon study came to these conclusions through an analysis of the exit poll data, petition signers data, and electoral results data provided by Sumate.
Objectives of the Carter Center Study
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Determine the correlation between the number of signers of the presidential recall petition and the electoral results of the Aug. 15 recall referendum.
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Compare the characteristics of the universe of voting machine results with those of the sample for the 2nd audit performed Aug. 18.
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Determine the universe from which the sample generation program used Aug. 18 was drawn.
The scope of this study is limited to the voting centers that used voting machines during the Aug. 15, 2004, recall referendum, to respond to concerns that the electronic voting machines results were manipulated.
