CIAO DATE: 08/04

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of interrelated phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of "tactical hawks, strategic doves"Ñbut with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combinationÑalongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian CabinetÑpotentially represents a turning point.

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