CIAO DATE: 6/03

Brookings Northeast Asia Survey, 2002-03

Richard Bush, Director, CNAPS
Catharin Dalpino, Fellow, The Brookings Institution

April 2003

Brookings Institution

 

Abstract

At the beginning of the Bush Administration there was a point of view that the main fault-line in the geopolitics of East Asia was between the United States and China. China was a rising power that would likely challenge status-quo America for hegemony in the region. Taiwan, it was thought, would probably be the point at which conflict would occur since it was where the conflicts of interest were greatest. Strengthening alliances was important for its own sake but also because where Japan, and to a lesser extent, South Korea lined up on any dispute with China would matter. The EP-3 incident and early Administration actions to enhance security support for Taiwan only confirmed this initial belief.

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