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Email this citationCIAO DATE: 09/03
The Future of Russia: The Nuclear Factor
Oleg Bukharin
August 2003
Abstract
Two factors were of critical significance in shaping the international peace and security agenda after the Cold War: the emergence of nuclear security and proliferation dangers in the wake of the Soviet collapse, and the unprecedented level of cooperation between Russia and other countries to address these problems. As a result of cooperative international and Russia's domestic efforts, important progress has been made in recent years in reducing nuclear arsenals, protecting Russia's nuclear materials, and preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise from Russia. Much work, however, remains to be done.
There are presently no definite answers about the future of the nuclear security agenda in Russia. The Russian nuclear legacy - its nuclear forces, the nuclear-weapons production and power-generation complex, huge stocks of nuclear-useable highly-enriched uranium and plutonium, and environmental clean-up problems - is not going to go away anytime soon. What is clear is that nuclear security and proliferation risks will be high as long as there remain their underlying causes: the oversized and underfunded nuclear complex, the economic turmoil, and wide-spread crime and corruption. The magnitude of the problem, however, could vary significantly depending on Russia's progress in downsizing of its nuclear weapons complex; its ability to maintain core competence in the nuclear field; availability of funding for the nuclear industry and safeguards and security programs; political commitment by the Russian government to improve nuclear security; and international cooperation. Economically-prosperous Russia, the rule of law, and a smaller, safer and more secure nuclear complex would make nuclear risks manageable. An integration of the Russian nuclear complex into the world's nuclear industry, increased transparency of nuclear operations, and cooperative nuclear security relations with the United States and other western countries are also essential to reducing nuclear dangers and preventing catastrophic terrorism.
