CIAO DATE: 09/04

The Nuclear Multipolarity Project

Since the end of the Cold War, new nuclear powers have emerged and nuclear proliferation continues. This shift from a bipolar nuclear system to what may become a multipolar nuclear world raises important questions: How will deterrence function in a multipolar system? What role will coalitions play? How will the distribution of strategic capabilities affect state behavior?

DFI Government Services is studying these issues in a project sponsored by the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency’s Combat Support Directorate, in conjunction with DTRA’s Advanced Systems and Concepts Office. The sponsors asked DFI to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing these issues in a multipolar context. DFI was also asked to conduct strategic gaming seminars to explore propositions developed by the framework and the implications of nuclear multipolarity for the US. These reports summarize the proceedings in this series of three game seminars. CDI Vice President Theresa Hitchens was a participant in the gaming.