- CIAO Search Results

39501. The Waiting Room

Author:: Kim Lockwood
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: This here is nowhere. A circle of whiteness squared to still the furthest confines of the room. Passengers pass by with nothing to declare, papers and permissions all approved. As ceaseless movement breaks in waves of sound on sound, a static too thickly sewn to undo grounds us in a place of stark sensation where mattresses are spread thinly on the ground and belonging can't be found in our slow translations.

39502. The Impact of Asian Investment on Africa's Textile Industries

Author:: Tang Xiaoyang
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian—particularly Chinese—investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities. Asian investors' impact on Africa's cotton, textile, and apparel sectors may have profound consequences for the continent's industrialization and development. As southeast African countries seek to industrialize and build indigenous cotton-textile-apparel value chains, the interactions between Asian-particularly Chinese-investors and African companies become more and more complex. Indeed, Asian investors present both a challenge to and an opportunity for local industries, and southeast African countries need a clear vision and tailored policies to make the most of the opportunities.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

39503. Who Runs the International System? Power and the Staffing of the United Nations Secretariat

Author:: Paul Novosad and Eric Werker
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: National governments frequently pull strings to get their citizens appointed to senior positions in international institutions. We examine, over a 60 year period, the nationalities of the most senior positions in the United Nations Secretariat, ostensibly the world's most representative international institution. The results indicate which nations are successful in this zero-sum game, and what national characteristics correlate with power in international institutions. The most overrepresented countries are small, rich democracies like the Nordic countries. Statistically, democracy, investment in diplomacy, and economic/military power are predictors of senior positions, even after controlling for the U.N. staffing mandate of competence and integrity. National control over the United Nations is remarkably sticky; however the in influence of the United States has diminished as US ideology has shifted away from its early allies. In spite of the decline in US influence, the Secretariat remains pro-American relative to the world at large.
Topic:: Demographics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States

39504. Rigged Cars and Barrel Bombs: Aleppo and the State of the Syrian War

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As Aleppo goes, so goes Syria's rebellion. The city is crucial to the mainstream opposition's military viability as well as its morale, thus to halting the advance of the Islamic State (IS). After an alliance of armed rebel factions seized its eastern half in July 2012, Aleppo for a time symbolised the opposition's optimism and momentum; in the following months, it exposed the rebels' limits, as their progress slowed, and they struggled to win over the local population. Today, locked in a two-front war against the regime and IS, their position is more precarious than at any time since the fighting began. Urgent action is required to prevent the mainstream opposition's defeat: either for Iran and Russia to press the regime for de-escalation, to showcase their willingness to confront IS instead of exploiting its presence to further strengthen Damascus; or, more realistically, for the U.S., Europe and regional allies to qualitatively and quantitatively improve support to local, non-jihadi rebel factions in Aleppo. Any eventual possibility of a negotiated resolution of the war depends on one course or the other being followed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Arabia and Syria

39505. Examining China's Assertiveness through the Eyes of Chinese IR Scholars

Author:: Kai He and Huiyun Feng
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: China's assertive diplomacy in recent years has ignited intense debates among International Relations (IR) scholars. Some argue that China's assertive behavior is rooted in its perception of increasing power and capabilities. Others suggest that it is U.S. policies that triggered China's assertive reactions. Relying on an original survey of China's IR scholars conducted in Beijing in 2013 and using structural equation modeling (SEM), we empirically examine Chinese IR scholars' attitude towards Chinese power versus the United States, their perceptions of U.S. policy in Asia, and their preference for an assertive Chinese foreign policy. We find that both the power perception and policy reaction arguments make sense in accounting for Chinese IR scholars' attitude regarding China's assertive diplomacy. However, our research suggests that a more pessimistic view on Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: China and East Asia

39506. Water Pressures in Central Asia

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region's great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea's remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region's water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.
Topic:: Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

39507. Qatar and the Recalibration of Power in the Gulf

Author:: Lina Khatib
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Long a minor regional actor in the shadow of Saudi Arabia, Qatar wants to increase its influence. But Doha's expansionist foreign policy has been plagued by miscalculations, domestic challenges, and international pressure—all issues connected to Doha's relationship with Riyadh. As a result of these setbacks, Qatar's regional role has diminished, and for the foreseeable future, its external influence is likely to remain under the direction of Saudi Arabia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar

39508. Neoliberalism without Neoliberals Evidence from the Rise of 401(k) Retirement Plans

Author:: Michael A. McCarthy
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper considers the rise of defined-contribution (DC) pensions – such as 401(k) plans – in order to contribute to the debate about neoliberalism. It challenges the generalizability of two common accounts: the weak state intervention thesis, which argues that neoliberal policy change is driven by state retreat and deregulation, and the state-managed transition thesis, which argues that neoliberal policies are both enacted and managed through new regulations. In contrast, this paper argues that the development of the employer-based pension system between 1970 and 1995 is an instance of “neoliberalism without neoliberals.” A battery of regulations was passed between 1974 and the late 1980s that were intended to make the traditional system of defined- benefit (DB) pensioning more secure. However, this legislation triggered a business shift to 401(k)s. The legislation worked in such a counterintuitive way because of three factors related to changes in “the balance of class forces” in American society: (1) new laws increased costs for firms, with small businesses being hit the heaviest, (2) employment in the manufacturing sector, labor's traditional stronghold, declined as a share of total employment, and (3) because unions were unable or unwilling to unionize emergent sectors of the economy, new businesses in them were not compelled to negotiate DB plans. In such a context, growing regulatory costs pushed many firms to adopt DC pensions for their employees. The outcome was a major policy shift, considered by many to be a defining feature of the neoliberal era.
Topic:: Development
Political Geography:: America

39509. Is China's Property Market Heading toward Collapse?

Author:: Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China's property market has slowed significantly since the first half of 2014, with sharp declines in sales and a buildup in the inventory of new homes. This sharper than expected downturn—which has affected not only second- and third tier smaller cities but also first-tier megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou—contrasts with last year's buoyant sales and double-digit price surge. Compounded by fears of a default in the shadow banking system and the perception of a highly leveraged Chinese economy, the sudden declines in the property sector are being watched closely. Many commentators believe this could be a turning point for the sector, triggering a hard landing of the Chinese economy and even a financial crisis. Over the last decade, China's property sector has become an important pillar for the country's growth as well as the key source for elevated commodity prices. A property market slump would hurt other sectors, as well as drag down resource-rich economies that rely heavily on China to buy their exports.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Crisis, and Urbanization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and United Nations

39510. Debt Sanctions Can Help Ukraine and Fill a Gap in the International Financial System

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The escalating crisis in Ukraine has prompted the United States and Europe to impose the toughest economic sanctions against Russia since the end of the Cold War. Continued instability and military conflict in eastern Ukraine are straining Ukrainian finances. Despite a generous international support package, the government faces shrinking revenues, rising costs, and a spike in foreign debt payments over the next two years.
Topic:: Cold War, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, and Asia

39511. The Federal Reserve Engages the World (1970–2000): An Insider's Narrative of the Transition to Managed Floating and Financial Turbulence

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper traces the evolution of the Federal Reserve and its engagement with the global economy over the last three decades of the 20th century: 1970 to 2000. The paper examines the Federal Reserve's role in international economic and financial policy and analysis covering four areas: the emergence and taming of the great inflation, developments in US external accounts, foreign exchange analysis and activities, and external financial crises. It concludes that during this period the US central bank emerged to become the closest the world has to a global central bank.
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States

39512. Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation

Author:: William R. Cline and Jared Nolan
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper applies time series analysis to distinguish between cyclical and demographic causes of the decline of the labor force participation rate. Some public discussions suggest that the decline of US unemployment from its 2009 peak of 10 percent to about 6 percent by mid-2014 grossly exaggerates recovery because most of the decline reflects the exit of discouraged workers from the labor force. This study finds instead that one-half to two-thirds of the decline in labor force participation by about 3 percentage points from late 2007 to early 2014 is attributable to aging of the population. Although about one-third is found attributable to the lagged influence of high, and especially long-term, unemployment, going forward the potential rebound in the participation rate from recovery is projected to be approximately offset by further aging of the population.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, and Population
Political Geography:: United States

39513. Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

Author:: Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and History

39514. Does Clientelism Work? A Test os Guessability in India

Author:: Mark Schneider
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:: Local brokers are thought to possess fine-grained information on voters' political preferences, material needs, and even social preferences. Research on clientelism assumes that brokers meet the most basic informational requirement of knowing voters' partisan preferences, if not their votes. This assumption drives theoretical predictions on the types of voters politicians should target with selective benefits, and whether or not a quid pro quo exchange of benefits-for-votes is an efficient electoral strategy relative to programmatic distribution. Nonetheless, existing scholarship does not test this assumption and analysis of variation in brokers' ability to identify voters' partisan preferences has not been conducted. To test this assumption, this paper develops a behavioral measure – guessability – based on whether or not village council presidents in Rajasthan, India correctly guess the partisan preferences of voters sampled from their local areas. I find guessability to be lower than existing theory and low-information benchmarks expect. Local leaders can identify the partisan preferences of voters who are most guessable either because they belong to core partisan ethnic groups or because they are integrated into their local co-partisan networks. However, they perform poorly at identifying those whose partisan preferences are uncertain and require monitoring to reveal. This has consequences for the targeting strategies parties and politicians pursue.
Topic:: Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory, and Sociology
Political Geography:: India and Rajasthan

39515. The State of REDD+ Finance

Author:: Marigold Norman and Smita Nakhooda
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper presents a thorough synthesis of available data to illuminate the current global state of finance for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). It adds to a growing body of work that seeks to understand the size and composition of finance for REDD+ initiatives, as well as the delivery of climate finance more generally. The analysis shows that aggregate pledges of both public and private finance are significant, at more than US $8.7 billion for the period between 2006 and March 2014, but the pace of new pledges slowed after 2010. The public sector contributes nearly 90% of reported REDD+ finance, with the preponderance of funding concentrated among a relatively small number of donors and recipient countries. The paper analyzes early experience with performance-based finance, although such finance represents less than two-fifths of pledges to date. The extent to which new institutions in the climate finance architecture such as the Green Climate Fund will provide a new and effective channel for increasing support for REDD+ remains to be seen.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, and Politics

39516. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali

Author:: Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, Christopher Udry, and Lori Beaman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
Topic:: Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa

39517. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:: Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:: Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

39518. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition

Author:: Frances Z. Brown
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

39519. Nordic-Baltic Support to Military and Security Capacity Building?

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Support to Military and Security Capacity Building is expanding as a way to strengthen the resilience of states and enhance their ability to manage conflict and insecurity constructively. It offers new openings for Nordic and Baltic engagements and partnerships.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, NATO, United Nations, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping

39520. Governing Uranium and Nuclear Supply Chains: Why Private Engagement is Needed

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The expansion of uranium mining into states of weak governance calls for new forms of regulation from private and public actors. Companies along the nuclear supply chain can strengthen the global nuclear regulatory regime through engagement, material stewardship, and traceability approaches.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Markets, Nuclear Weapons, Natural Resources, and Nuclear Power

39521. Prepare for a 'multi-partner' world! Reordering Order

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: If decision-makers are to cope with a rapidly emerging polycentric world characterized by compounding complexity and declining constitutionalism, new forms of statecraft are need - ed. Partnerships may well be the way forward.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Power Politics

39522. The Role of Human Rights in Climate Change Adaptation

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Inconsistent climate change policies increase the vulnerability of marginalised populations and lead to resource conflicts. A human rights-based approach can help protect the adaptive capacities of climate vulnerable populations.
Topic:: Civil Society, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Human Rights, and International Cooperation

39523. Transforming armed non-state actors Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: It is necessary to rethink the assumptions and theory of change of Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programs in current situations of armed violence.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, War, and Armed Struggle

39524. A Difficult Balancing Act: Backing the Kurds in the fight against IS in Iraq and Syria

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The Kurdish forces now provide the necessary boots on the ground in the framework of Operation Inherent Resolve. However, the strong backing of the Kurds presents a number of challenges and difficult balancing acts for Western and regional actors.
Topic:: Political Violence, Defense Policy, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

39525. Prioritising European Defence Cooperation: The next step for the common security and defence policy

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The European council's decisions on the common Security and Defence policy (CSDP) in December 2013 and the process that now follows should be used by EU member states as a means to progressively empower the CSDP within a short-term future.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

39526. After Ukraine: Keeping the Arctic Stable

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The greatest challenge to the stability of the Arctic actually comes from outside the region itself, but there are still strong reasons to be optimistic about security in the Arctic region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Climate Change, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Arctic

39527. Social Accountability and Public Service Delivery in Rural Africa

Author:: Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Social accountability as a tool for development planning is gaining foothold in international donor circles. It is concerned with the responsibility and responsiveness of state authorities, as well as the ability of citizens to make claims and hold those who exercise power to account for their actions.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa

39528. Pursuing gender equality in land administration

Author:: Helle Munk Ravnborg and Rachel Spichiger
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Ensuring gender equality with respect to land rights is hailed as a key element of the recent land reforms, but actual results in this respect are limited. Achieving gender equality requires a comprehensive focus on land, family and other laws, including customary, pertaining to land and on their implementation on the ground.
Topic:: Civil Society, Gender Issues, Governance, and Reform

39529. Chinese Investments in Italy: Facing Risks and Grasping Opportunities

Author:: Marco Sanfilippo
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper analyses foreign direct investment (FDI) activities of Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Italy. Chinese investments in Italy present features similar to those in other advanced countries, while also showing some country-specific features. Italy is considered an attractive destination for Chinese investors not only because of its large market and its strategic position as a gateway to the Mediterranean, but also because it is seen as a valuable source of strategic assets in both traditional and advanced industries. The analysis of the Italian case is supported by the presentation of a number of detailed case studies, which exemplify the strategies followed by Chinese companies in the country and help summarise the main implications of this phenomenon. Evidence presented in this paper gives rise to a number of suggestions for policy makers on how to maximise the benefits from rising flows of FDI from China and other emerging economies.
Political Geography:: China

39530. EU Court Annuls Hamas Terrorist Designation

Author:: Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The group's legal challenge will likely succeed for now, but the EU can reinstate the ban by relying on the plethora of evidence from European terrorism cases involving Hamas. In the latest sign of the legal troubles facing the European Union's designation regime -- the authority under which governments can freeze funds and economic resources of illicit actors -- the EU General Court is expected to annul the terrorist designation of Hamas on December 17. The judgment comes on the heels of a similar action in October that annulled the Council of the European Union's designation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on similarly procedural grounds. Although the new judgment is not expected to acquit Hamas of charges related to violence, it comes at a time when the group's terrorist and militant activities are on the rise. And like the LTTE, Hamas will surely point to the judgment as "evidence" that it is not a terrorist entity.
Political Geography:: Europe

39531. Palestinian-Israeli Incitement Can and Should Be Curbed, Especially Now

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Incitement by Palestinians and Israelis against each other should be penalized rather than explained away or dismissed. The omnibus spending bills just passed by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives include one obscure yet potentially significant provision on the issue of incitement in the Israeli-Palestinian arena: a reiteration of the requirement that the Palestinian Authority (PA) act to end its official incitement against Israel as a condition for continued U.S. funding. This provision should be enforced, not evaded as has been the case until now.
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Palestine

39532. The Battle of Ideas 2.0: Combating ISIS Ideology at Home and Abroad

Author:: Matthew Levitt, Prince Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, and Hedieh Mirahmadi
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An in-depth conversation on the challenges of battling jihadist ideology in the ISIS era. On December 16, His Royal Highness Prince Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein of Jordan, Matthew Levitt, and Hedieh Mirahmadi addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. HRH Prince Zeid is the UN high commissioner for human rights. Levitt is the Institute's Fromer-Wexler Fellow and director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. Mirahmadi is the director of World Organization for Resource Development and Education (WORDE), a nonprofit dedicated to preventing radicalization. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: Jordan

39533. The GCC in 2015: Domestic Security Trumps Regional Integration

Author:: Karen E. Young
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The conservative Gulf Arab states are functioning more cohesively again after a year of diplomatic tensions, but questions persist about political reform, economic integration, and demographic issues. The thirty-fifth annual Gulf Cooperation Council summit, held December 10 in Qatar, was probably the most efficient meeting the group has ever held. With the diplomatic schism between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain papered over three weeks earlier, Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani hosted the rulers of Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as senior substitutes for the ailing leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman.
Political Geography:: Kuwait, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and United Arab Emirates

39534. Syrian Air Force Operations: Strategic, Effective, and Unrestrained

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Absent more robust international intervention, the regime remains essentially unopposed in the air, allowing it to continue pursuing its strategic objectives and killing civilians with relative impunity. Prior to the ongoing civil war, the Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF) was never considered a key component of the Syrian military. Routinely bested by the Israeli Air Force and equipped with a mostly aging fleet of Soviet-era aircraft, it was not seen as an important player in the regional military landscape. The war has changed that, however, raising the SAAF to a prominent role in the struggle to preserve the Assad regime. Since spring 2012, air operations have become a strategic element in the conflict, allowing the regime to strike anywhere in the country with virtual impunity, contributing to the opposition's failure to consolidate control of territory, and supporting a wide variety of military operations. Along the way, the air force has been involved in some of the worst regime attacks on civilians. The SAAF's central role in regime preservation and human-rights violations make it a logical and morally justifiable target for foreign intervention, whether in terms of direct allied air operations or enhanced assistance to the opposition.
Political Geography:: Israel and Syria

39535. Which Way Cuba? Political transformations, social deterioration and attempted dialogue

Author:: Armando Chaguaced and Borghild Tønnessen-Krokan
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper attempts to summarize the status of the Cuban reform processes at the end of 2013 (including some elements from early 2014). It is part of a project at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, where we are following both the economic reforms and – in this case – the political implications of economic reforms. The article will take as a point of departure reforms and changes that may be observed in the following areas: agricultural transformations, possible widening space for entrepreneurs, the Mariel Special Development Zone, the new cooperative sector, the emergence of a new dual state-private structure in the economy, a discussion of different Cuban agents of change, considerations about an evolving international context. Towards the end of the paper, we attempt to assess these empirical trends against the backdrop of some theoretical considerations for political transformations, partly with reference to other cases, before the paper draws up three possible scenarios for Cuba towards and even after 2018, when the great generational shift in the Cuban leadership is supposed to take place. This Report also contains an article going more in depth about the deterioration of social services in Cuba, written by the Cuban political scientist Armando Chaguaceda. Since this article is printed in Spanish, a summary in English is included in the present article. The key question behind this paper is whether and to what extent a promotion of economic pluralism is taking place in such a way that it may lead to political pluralism and de-concentration of power, or contrary, whether there will be a re-concentration of both economic and political power in the party, state and military nomenclature.
Political Geography:: Cuba

39536. Will the Next Israeli Election Be About Regional Challenges or Netanyahu's Leadership?

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The long-serving prime minister suddenly is no longer the presumptive favorite against a rapidly consolidating opposition, which will likely spur him to shore up his own right-wing base throughout the campaign season.
Political Geography:: Israel

39537. Jihadism on the Rise in Europe: The Dutch Perspective

Author:: Rob Bertholee
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: An intensive discussion covering the role of the Syria campaign, advances by the new generation of European jihadists, and steps the Dutch government is taking to understand and reduce the problem.
Political Geography:: Europe and Syria

39538. Jordan's King Abdullah Comes to Washington

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Friday's meeting offers an opportunity to discuss the kingdom's domestic challenges, the proposed no-fly zone in northern Syria, and the potential ramifications of ramped-up training of Syrian opposition forces on Jordanian territory.
Political Geography:: Washington, Syria, and Jordan

39539. Making the Iraqi Revenue-Generating Deal Work

Author:: Michael Knights
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Leaders in Baghdad and Iraqi Kurdistan have taken a brave step toward reunifying the country through revenue sharing. The United States should support implementation of the deal.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Baghdad, and Kurdistan

39540. Between ISIS and Iran: Bahrain Tweaks Washington

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Amid electoral boycotts and continued concerns about ISIS and Iran, King Hamad has reappointed a prime minister whom Washington regards as an impediment to political progress.
Political Geography:: Iran, Washington, and Bahrain

39541. What Difference Would an Iran Deal Make?

Author:: Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Implementing a nuclear agreement will be no easier than reaching one, and Washington will have little influence over what Iran decides to do over time about the deal.
Political Geography:: Iran and Washington

39542. Regional Nuclear Plans in the Aftermath of an Iran Deal

Author:: Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: While the purpose of multilateral negotiations with Iran is to reduce proliferation concerns, successful talks may in fact accelerate nuclear plans in the Gulf states and Jordan.
Political Geography:: Iran and Jordan

39543. Tunisians Elect a President

Author:: Sarah Feuer
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Regardless of who enters Carthage Palace in January, a free and fair election will represent an achievement worthy of international recognition. On Sunday, November 23, Tunisians will return to the polls to elect a president nearly one month after voting in a new parliament. The parliamentary election, widely praised by international and domestic observers, brought in a legislature dominated by the anti-Islamist Nidaa Tounes (Tunisian Call) Party, which won 85 of the parliament's 217 seats. Tunisia's main Islamist party, Ennahda (Renaissance), came in second place, garnering 69 seats -- a notable decline from the 89 seats it obtained in the 2011 election for a transitional assembly. Three smaller blocs -- the leftist Popular Front coalition, the centrist Free Patriotic Union, and the liberal Afek Tounes (Tunisian Horizon) Party -- will occupy a combined 39 seats, while a host of independents will fill the remaining 24 seats. Against this backdrop, the presidential election will mark another milestone in Tunisia's promising, if precarious, transition to democracy. In a region plagued by failing states, resurgent authoritarianism, and violence, the mere fact that Tunisia is holding a peaceful presidential election should give the United States and the international community reason to celebrate and, more important, lend assistance moving forward.
Political Geography:: United States and Tunisia

39544. The New 'Tri-Border' Region: Emerging Threats Along the Israel-Lebanon-Syria Frontier

Author:: Boaz Ganor and Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A detailed discussion of the various factors fueling or constraining chaos on Syria's borders, including Arab tribal politics, Israeli security calculations, Iranian-Hezbollah military strategy, and a seemingly hesitant U.S.-led air campaign.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

39545. Policies and Politics Will Test U.S.-Israel Ties

Author:: David Makovsky
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: As the Iran deadline approaches, violence flares up in Jerusalem, and respective election cycles ebb and flow, U.S. and Israeli officials will need to work harder than ever to manage bilateral tensions. In the coming weeks, a number of foreign and domestic developments will affect U.S. and Israeli policy, with each potentially testing the already tense bilateral relationship. One key date is November 24, the deadline for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. President Obama has publicly said there is a "big gap" between the parties, making the prospects of a breakthrough unclear, but high-level U.S., EU, and Iranian envoys have completed two days of talks in Oman in a bid to reach such a breakthrough. If a deal is in fact made and the terms are not to Israel's liking, then the war of words with Washington may resume on this very sensitive issue.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Washington, Israel, and Oman

39546. The 1968 Siege of Sana: A Houthi Historical Parallel

Author:: Asher Orkaby
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Locals tend to perceive today's conflict less as a struggle between external forces than as a continuation of long-running tensions between Zaydi tribal elite and the modern Yemeni state. The beginning of November saw Sana's airport, government buildings, universities, and even major city intersections firmly under the control of the antigovernment Houthi movement. Since the 1990s, the Houthi clan has gained the support of many northern Zadyi tribes, adherents of Yemen's branch of Shia Islam, which comprises around 30 percent of the country's population of 25 million. The attack on Sana caps a decade of armed political struggle between the tribesmen of the Houthi movement and the Yemeni government.
Political Geography:: Yemen

39547. Oman Ruler's Failing Health Could Affect U.S. Iran Policy

Author:: Simon Henderson
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The death of Sultan Qaboos with no clear successor would jeopardize U.S.-Iran diplomatic contacts, the latest of which will be the meeting tomorrow in Muscat between Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. On November 5, the Omani state television channel broadcast a video of seventy-three-year-old Sultan Qaboos bin Said, currently undergoing medical treatment in Germany. He greeted Omanis in anticipation of their national day, November 18, and expressed regret that he would not be back in Oman for the celebrations. No information has been given on what is wrong with the ruler but, though his voice was strong, he looked emaciated and frail. An unnamed diplomat in Muscat, the Omani capital, had been quoted in August as saying Qaboos has colon cancer.
Political Geography:: United States, Iran, Germany, and Oman

39548. 'Jewish and Democratic': Implications of Israel's Self-Description, at Home and Abroad

Author:: Stuart Eizenstat and Ruth Gavison
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: What does it mean for Israel to identify as "both Jewish and democratic?" Watch a discussion with Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat on the hotly debated political, legal, and diplomatic consequences of Israel's core self-definition. On October 31, 2014, Ruth Gavison and Stuart Eizenstat addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Gavison is the Haim H. Cohn Professor of Human Rights Law at Hebrew University. Eizenstat co-chairs the board of directors for the Jewish People Policy Institute and has held senior positions in the White House and the Treasury, State, and Commerce Departments. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Political Geography:: Washington and Israel

39549. Reflections on Islamism: From the Muslim Brotherhood to the Islamic State

Author:: Shimon Shamir
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Israel's former ambassador to Egypt and Jordan discusses the changing face of Islamism for the Institute's annual lecture in honor of the late Zeev Schiff. In historical terms, Islamism is a modern movement. While its adherents claim that it is a purely indigenous effort to purge foreign elements that have penetrated Islam in the modern period, the irony is that Islamism itself was born of the friction between religious loyalties and modern, Western-dominated realities. From the start, the movement thrived in places where Western power and culture abounded -- many Islamist activists were Western-educated professionals who spent years in Europe or the United States, while many terrorist cells were formed by Muslims living in the cities of Germany, Britain, and Belgium. This Western connection facilitated the absorption of modern methods and instruments, including weaponry, Internet communications, aircraft, banking systems, smartphones, and so forth.
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, Israel, Germany, Belgium, Egypt, and Jordan

39550. Responding Effectively to the Military Challenges in Syria

Author:: Jeffrey White
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The moderate rebel force currently envisioned by Washington would take far too long to arrive on the battlefield and could be easy prey for ISIS and Assad. As the Obama administration's plans for raising a moderate Syrian opposition force become clearer, its approach seems to center on a lengthy recruitment, training, and deployment program initially dedicated to defense against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). If carried out, this plan promises a long delay before significant forces are on the battlefield. It would also limit their potential effectiveness in the near to midterm and perhaps commit them to a protracted enterprise in which defeat is likely.
Political Geography:: Iraq, Washington, and Syria

39551. New Poll Shows Majority of Saudis, Kuwaitis, Emiratis Reject ISIS, Back Two-State Solution with Israel

Author:: David Pollock
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: A rare poll conducted last month in three Gulf Cooperation Council states demonstrates decisive rejection of ISIS and a surprisingly high level of popular support for peaceful resolution of the Israeli- Palestinian conflict -- but also substantial minority support for both the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
Political Geography:: Kuwait

39552. Twenty Years of Israeli-Jordanian Peace: A Brief Assessment

Author:: David Schenker
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: The treaty's trade and security benefits have been considerable, though many Jordanians continue to reject the likely economic windfall that full normalization could bring. October 26 marks the twentieth anniversary of the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty. Prior to the agreement's signing at Wadi Araba in 1994, the two countries had not fought a war since 1967, and their leaders had been in routine communication since the 1940s. Yet the treaty was far more than just a formalization of a de facto ceasefire -- it fundamentally changed the nature of the Israeli- Jordanian relationship, enhancing security, stability, and U.S. interests in a turbulent region.
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, and Jordan

39553. Turkey's New Vision for “Man's Best Hope for Peace”: United Nations Reform and Reorganization of the Security Council

Author:: C. Akça Ataç
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: Despite its present reputation as weak, inefficient, and discreditable, the United Nations is one of humanity's most noble endeavors. Although the structure of the Security Council prevents its decision-making procedures from being more democratic, the UN still seeks to suppress aggression, respect self-determination, and promote human rights and well-being. Furthermore, political cosmopolitans' proposals for comprehensive UN reform, which goes far beyond increasing the number of permanent members of the Security Council, give us hope for substantial improvement. Nevertheless, the UN is still the sum of the states it is comprised of and UN reform depends on the broader and ambitious project of state reform as both concept and practice. Within this context, this paper argues that focusing exclusively on the Security Council and the geographical distribution of permanent membership only harms the comprehensiveness of the analyses seeking to reform the UN from a larger perspective. The fact that the success of a UN reform is closely related with the enhancement of member states' ethical capacities should also be taken into consideration. The next round of debates for a proper solution to the UN impasse takes place in 2015, and Turkey is emerging as an enthusiastic voice for further reform and for its own potential permanent membership in the Security Council. However, Turkey has also developed a significantly anti-UN discourse unprecedented in its foreign policy, which now runs the risk of curtailing the country's capacity to partake in substantial change in UN decision-making procedures. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu currently acts as a statesman, insisting on a statist reform (which focuses more on states' individual interests) of the Security Council. Interestingly, in the 1990s, when Davutoğlu was a university professor, his views of the UN tended to be more cosmopolitan and suggested a civilization-based solution. This paper, while elaborating on the discussions of reforming the UN from a cosmopolitan perspective, also probes Davutoğlu's conflicting approaches to the issue. It thus seeks to argue that Turkey, instead of pushing for a purely statist model, should consider supporting pluralistic, multilevel, and more-complex participation in the UN's decision-making procedures.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cold War, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Turkey

39554. Thinking about Intelligence Within, Without, and Beyond the State

Author:: Peter Gill
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Abstract:: The reform or 'democratization' of intelligence has been studied in many countries essentially as a process of transition from authoritarian or 'counterintelligence' states to liberal democratic regimes in which security and intelligence agencies are subject to (more or less) democratic control and oversight. These studies have contributed to the growth in comparative studies of intelligence but have often ignored some key issues, including the conditions for the very existence of 'state' intelligence, the continuing significance of parallel non-state intelligence entities and the involvement of an increasing number of corporate actors in intelligence activities. This chapter examines intelligence as it works within and between different 'sectors' and the implications for democratization. Intelligence is a sub-set of 'surveillance', a ubiquitous social activity, and can be defined as: 'mainly secret activities – targeting, collection, analysis, dissemination and action – intended to enhance security and/or maintain power relative to competitors by forewarning of threats and opportunities.' A central element of this definition – as with surveillance more generally - is the link between information/knowledge and action/power (or, 'intelligence' and 'policy') where the objective of the process is security and it will be subject to resistance. Intelligence is exercised at various social 'levels' from the transnational to the personal: even individuals deploy information gathering in the face of uncertainty in order to assess threats etc.
Topic:: Cold War and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States

39555. International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) 2014. Towards Asia 2025: Policy and Technology Imperatives

Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS) took place from 21–22 August 2014 at the Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel in Singapore. ICAFS 2014, themed 'Towards Asia 2025: Policy and Technology Imperatives' was aimed at understanding the mid-to-long term trends and challenges that affect Asian food security with in the horizon of 2025 and beyond as the region faces significant challenges posed by changes in demography and consumption patterns, performance decline in agriculture, environmental degradation, natural resource depletion and climate change. This conference sought to address questions relating to the future of food policy and technology that contribute to food security in Asia. The choice of the time-horizon of 2025 was specifically earmarked for a number of reasons. The first session is dedicated to highlighting the identified trends and challenges to food security in 2025. From a national planning standpoint, a decade usually represents a good medium-run timeframe for policies to be formulated and enacted. On a regional level ASEAN's post 2015 agenda will also be looking into a 10-year timeframe. The International Food Policy research Institute (IFPRI), the world's leading food policy research centre, has also chosen 2025 as the time period by when the world should aim to eradicate hunger and malnutrition. Hence there seems to be a good convergence on this particular timeframe; one we should all as institutions and individuals commit to make the region and world more food secure. Session 2 highlights the food security challenges and opportunities in the context of Post 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). This session addresses issues such as how to increase productivity and supply chains; challenges and opportunities for policy, science and technology interventions as well as how to modernize food supply chains. Session 3 presents the topic of market integration and trade facility. The idea is to promote regional integration and food trade as means for sustaining food security by increasing economic access to food. This is relevant to the ASEAN Economic Community 2015 agenda, which includes tariff reduction, enhanced trade facilitation, reduction in barriers to trade among others, and aims to accelerate economic growth and development. Benefits and challenges are also discussed based on the context of the region's two biggest economies, China and India, anticipating 2025.Session 4 discusses options for financing and investing in agricultural development and technological innovation. With global reduction in public spending on research and development (R) in agriculture, options should be diversified where it allows private sectors and other alternative financing such as insurance and micro financing to help poor and vulnerable farmers. Session 5 suggests an integrated approach for Asia towards 2025. This session looks at the role of science and R in further boosting agricultural production and the need for systematic surveillance of food security through different monitoring systems using different types of indexing and benchmarking tools. These monitoring systems should be able to be responsive to potential calamities and mitigate shocks of natural disasters.
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

39556. Origins of the Palestine Mandate

Author:: Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Like everything else historical, the Palestine Mandate has a history with a chronological beginning, a middle, and, in this case, an end. From a strictly legal point of view, that beginning was September 29, 1923, and the end was midnight, May 14, 1948, putting the middle expanse at just short of 25 years.

39557. The Partition of Palestine

Author:: Bernard Wasserstein
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: One Palestine, Complete was the title of a book about the early history of the British mandate in Palestine by the Israeli historian, Tom Segev. It arises from a true anecdote about the first High Commissioner (governor) under the mandate, Sir Herbert Samuel. On 30 June 1920 he arrived at Government House in Jerusalem to replace the head of the British military occupation administration, General Sir Louis Bols. He was taken aback when Bols demanded that, upon taking formal possession of the country, Samuel should sign a “receipt.” Bols presented him with a piece of paper bearing the words “Received, one Palestine, complete.” Samuel duly added his signature but, a prudent man, he added the letters “E” That is an abbreviation standing for “Errors and omissions excepted” that used to be appended to commercial documents as a safety reservation. The document was later sold at auction in New York for five thousand dollars. Given the unsettled history of Palestine under British rule over the ensuing three decades, Samuel's caution was probably justified.
Political Geography:: New York, Israel, and Palestine

39558. Meeting Summary of Colloquium on Policy, Law, Contracts, and Sustainable Development

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In November 2014, CCSI and IHRB co - convened a colloquium on policy, law, contracts, and sustainable development, with a particular focus on large - scale investments in the extractive industries and the agriculture sector. The colloquium provided an opportunity for practitioners to share information on their related work, as well as to reflect on current practices and remaining gaps regarding efforts to embed sustainability and human rights into large - scale deals.

39559. Outcome Report of Roundtable on Governing Natural Resources

Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Investments in the extractive industries and large-scale land-based investments in forestry and agriculture present similar opportunities for host governments to accelerate sustainable development, as well as comparable challenges to ensure that such investments do not serve as a source of corruption, rights abuses, or environmental degradation. In response to the challenges associated with ensuring successful and inclusive results from such large-scale investments, an increasing number of initiatives have sought to increase good governance over these types of investments. Yet, despite some perceived commonalities between the sectors, the good governance initiatives in respect of extractive industry investments and land-based (forestry or agriculture) investments are often distinct and sector-specific, with few attempts being made to examine how lessons learned from one sector could be applied to the other.

39560. The Mauritius Convention on Transparency: Comments on the treaty and its role in increasing transparency of investor-State arbitration

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In July 2014, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) adopted the Mauritius Convention on Transparency that, if widely adopted, will do much to increase the transparency of investor-state arbitrations conducted under thousands of existing investment treaties and under any set of arbitration rules. This Policy Paper introduces the background and objectives of the Transparency Convention, provides commentary on each of its specific articles, and explains how the Transparency Convention can accomplish broad reform.
Topic:: United Nations

39561. State Control over Interpretation of Investment Treaties

Author:: Lise Johnson and Merim Razbaeva
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Critiques of investment treaties relate to the concern that tribunals' interpretations of these agreements depart from states' understandings of the texts, and do so in unpredictable ways leading to expensive litigation and unforeseen liability. States, however, can take steps to make their intentions regarding the texts clearer, and reduce the risk of uncertain outcomes. This policy paper discusses these possible steps, and the legal rules supporting them, providing guidance to states, attorneys, and tribunals regarding the important role of states in clarifying vague standards in and managing liability under existing investment treaties.

39562. Locating production and income within MNEs: An alternative approach based on formulary apportionment

Author:: Dylan G. Rassier
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Economic accountants, who are responsible for measuring gross domestic product (GDP), and tax authorities, which are responsible for collecting tax revenues, face similar challenges with respect to multinational enterprises (MNEs): economic accountants want to know where within an MNE production is taking place and, thus, where to attribute GDP; tax authorities want to know where income from production is earned. Current global guidance on economic accounting and international taxation generally require transactions within MNEs to be recognized at market (or “arm's length”) values as if the transactions are taking place among unrelated entities. However, the values of transactions within MNEs may not reflect economic reality because related entities may exchange unique products with no active markets, and because MNEs may be structured with one or more entities that exist for purposes other than production. As a result, transactions within MNEs may distort economic accounting statistics and tax revenues.

39563. Canada's non-reciprocal BIT with China: Would the US or Europe do the same?

Author:: Gus Van Harten
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The Canada - China bilateral investment treaty (BIT) – ratified by Canada on September 12, 2014, after a two - year delay following its signature in 2012 – provides a useful reference for future investment negotiations involving Canada or China and other countries.
Political Geography:: China and Canada

39564. In Defense of Bilateral Investment Treaties

Author:: Stephen M. Schwebel
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The creation of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) is the boldest step in the modern history of international cooperation on the protection of foreign investment. I t has furthered the flourishing of arbitration between investors and states, itself one of the most progressive developments in international law of the past sixty years. Since Germany concluded the first bilateral investment treaty (BIT) with Pakistan in 1959, some 3,000 BITs have been concluded. Yet, there are reports that the European Union (EU), led by Germany, may exclude investor - state arbitration from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the United States (US), impairing the ubiquity of investor - state arbitration.
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, and Germany

39565. The Road to Responsible investment Treaties

Author:: Roel Nieuwenkamp Kimmo Sinivuori
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, first adopted in 1976 and updated for the fifth time in 2011, are approaching middle age, it is appropriate to reflect on how the use of the se far - reaching recommendations for responsible business conduct can be promoted in international investment agreements (IIAs). During the Guideline's almost four decades of existence, the landscape of the global economy has continuously evolved, and securing sustainable development has become a key international issue.

39566. The Crucial Role of Infrastructure in Attracting FDI

Author:: Peter Nunnenkamp, Julian Donaubauer, and Birgit Meyer
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: It is widely believed that a country's infrastructure is a critical factor in sustaining economic growth, promoting trade and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). However, better data are required to assess the links between infrastructure, FDI and economic development. The available measures are either restricted to specific aspects of economic infrastructure, or they cover only a limited number of countries over a short period of time.

39567. Germany, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and investment-dispute settlement: Observations on a paradox

Author:: Ralph Alexander Lorz
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) currently being negotiated between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) could become the most comprehensive international agreement on free trade and investment protection. The negotiations have mostly been met with the usual criticism that accompanies attempts to expand free trade, despite overwhelming evidence that free trade fosters global economic development.
Political Geography:: United States and Germany

39568. How to deal with the growing incentives competition

Author:: Kenneth P. Thomas
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: As I discussed in an earlier Perspective, the use of investment incentives is pervasive and growing. The most recent example of a big bidding war was when Boeing threatened to move production of its 77 7 - X aircraft out of Washington state, prompting some 20 states to offer incentive packages to the company (including $1.7 billion from Missouri). In the end, Washington gave Boeing a package of tax incentives worth a record - breaking $8.7 billion over the 2 025 – 2040 period to stay, and the unions made substantial concessions regarding pensions.
Political Geography:: Washington

39569. Good Governance of Third Party Funding

Author:: Catherine Kessedjian
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: An OECD study shows that arbitration costs in investment disputes average US$ 8 million; in one case involving mass claims, the parties spent almost US$ 40 million in legal fees just to reach the decision on jurisdiction. Under these circumstances, it is no wonder that third party funding has become the talk of the town.

39570. The Canada-China BIT 2012: Perspectives and Implications

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: <p>The Canada-China BIT could provide insight on the key issues to be discussed in a possible US-China BIT. A particularly controversial issue will be the terms of investor-state arbitration (ISA). But as ISA becomes increasingly controversial between developed democratic states, it may become harder to negotiate ISA with China.</p>

39571. Mo Yan and Chinese Literature

Author:: Mo Yan
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:: This World Leaders Forum program, titled Mo Yan and Chinese Literature, features an address by Mo Yan, Nobel Laureate in Literature, 2012. Introduction by: John Coatsworth, Provost of the University; Professor of International and Public Affairs and of History, Columbia University in the City of New York. Moderated by: Lydia Liu, Wun Tsun Tam Professor in the Humanities, Department of East Asian Languages and Cultures and the Institute for Comparative Literature and Society, Columbia University in the City of New York.
Political Geography:: China

39572. ICSID, public opinion and the effect of (hypothetical) elite messaging

Author:: Alisha Anderson and Alexandra Guisinger
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) has emerged as a powerful actor within the field of inter-state investment arbitration. However, as with other international institutions, its existence depends on continued acceptance by domestic actors.

39573. The Transparency Rules and Transparency Convention: A good start and model for broader reform in investor-state arbitration

Author:: Lise Johnson
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In July 2013, after nearly three years of work, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) adopted a set of arbitration rules that will help open some investor-state arbitrations to public view. The UNCITRAL Rules on Transparency in Treaty - based Investor - State Arbitration (Transparency Rules) were crafted with input from governments, academics, arbitration practitioners, and non-governmental organizations, and approved by consensus by the member states. When applied, the Transparency Rules will require disclosure of information submitted to, and issued by, arbitral tribunals throughout proceedings, mandate open hearings and expressly allow for participation by non-parties to a dispute. The Transparency Rules also guard against disclosure of confidential information and establish a repository in which all information will be published.

39574. Withdrawing incentives to attract FDI: Can host countries put the genie back in the bottle?

Author:: Anna De Luca
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Many governments offer incentives to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). For example, the renewable energy sector has benefitted from large national incentive schemes in the past decade. However, the withdrawal of such incentives can lead to investors bringing investment treaty claims against host countries. This Perspective looks at some claims host countries face from investors in the renewable energy sector and their implications.

39575. How to enhance labor provisions in IIAs

Author:: Rafael Tamayo-Álvarez, Maria Alejandra Gonzalez-Perez, and Juan David Rodriguez-Rios
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Free trade agreements (FTAs) and international investment agreements (IIAs) are regarded as instruments to promote world trade, investment flows and market liberalization. The question, however, is whether they promote sustainable development as well. This Perspective contemplates incorporating voluntary codes of conduct for multinational enterprises (MNEs) in IIA s to strengthen the protection of labor rights, “the social component [...] embedded in the notion of sustainable development.”

39576. Cost allocation in investment arbitration: Forward toward incentivization

Author:: John Gaffney and James Nicholson
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In their contribution to the FDI Perspectives series, Baiju Vasani and Anastasiya Ugale drew attention to an emerging trend in favor of the so-called “costs follow the event” (CFtE) (or loser pays) approach, which is in contrast to the more “traditional” approach under which parties share the costs of arbitration equally, with each party covering its own legal fees.

39577. Player at the sidelines - NATO and the fight against ISIL

Author:: Jean-loup Samaan and Andreas Jacovs
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: On December 3rd 2014, NATO hosted the first meeting between the foreign ministers from the countries forming the US-led coalition against the so-called “Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL). Although all NATO members are officially part of the coalition and the Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, attended – as an observer – the meeting, participants said to the media that NATO would “only provide the building. ”Despite this word of caution, the event marked a new step in NATO's indirect involvement in the fight against ISIL. ! e ad-hoc coalition did materialize on the margins of NATO's Wales Summit last September. The question now is: will NATO merely play a role of a forum where coalition members meet, or could this lead to further participation?
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: United States

39578. Russia's Hybrid Warfare -Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence

Author:: Heidi Reisinger and Aleksandr Golts
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Ukraine is not even a state!” Putin reportedly advised former US President George W. Bush during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest. In 2014 this perception became reality. Russian behaviour during the current Ukraine crisis was based on the traditional Russian idea of a “sphere of influence” and a special responsibility or, stated more bluntly, the “right to interfere” with countries in its “near abroad”. This perspective is also implied by the equally misleading term “post-Soviet space.” The successor states of the Soviet Union are sovereign countries that have developed differently and therefore no longer have much in common. Some of them are members of the European Union and NATO, while others are desperately trying to achieve this goal. Contrary to what Professor John Mearsheimer may suggest. In his article “Why the Ukraine crisis is the West's fault” he argues that NATO has expanded too far to the East, “into Russia's backyard”, against Moscow's declared will, and therefore carries responsibility for recent events; however, this seems to ignore that NATO was not hunting for new members, but found them knocking at its door.
Topic:: NATO and War
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Ukraine, Soviet Union, and Moscow

39579. The "Home Game" - Countering Violent Extremism within NATO

Author:: Jacqueline Page
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: As the complex global security environment faced by NATO members continues to evolve in the coming years, terrorism – waged by actors both in and outside of their borders – will remain a vexing challenge. For over a decade, NATO's counterterrorism strategy has been built on taking the fight abroad. Member nations have been intimately involved in this effort as contributors to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, to the Multi-National Force in Iraq and in a variety of smaller missions around the globe. In recent times, however, there has been growing attention to the threat posed by “homegrown” terrorism and foreign fighters returning from Syria and elsewhere to their home countries throughout the Euro-Atlantic area.
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria

39580. Europe's changing security landscape: What role will the EU play in security and defence?

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Ukraine crisis has reminded Europeans of the importance of defence policy, thus amplifying the main message of the December 2013 European Council on security and defence. Many of the proposals put forward by the December summit are currently being worked on, but the Ukraine crisis creates additional challenges for the EU, highlighting the strategic divergence within the Union and posing fundamental questions about its role as a security provider. Regarding concrete achievements, the EU's defence ministers recently adopted a policy framework for systematic and long-term defence cooperation, and the Commission has also begun to work energetically towards achieving its key objectives in the defence sector. Ultimately, however, the success of the EU's efforts will depend on the commitment of the member states.
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

39581. Towards a two-state solution: A new approach is needed to promote the Middle East Peace Process

Author:: Mari Neuvonen
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Tensions and difficulties have emerged again in the Middle East together with the stalled peace process, which is a great concern for the EU. The EU has established two Civilian Crisis Management missions in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as instruments of the Common Security and Defence Policy to promote the objectives of the Middle East Peace Process. Both missions, EUPOL COPPS and EUBAM Rafah, have been successful in training, advising and mentoring the Palestinian security sector to combat terror and prevent it, and to operate with the Israeli security forces to maintain order. However, the full potential of the two missions has not been utilized as instruments to promote the peace process principles in terms of emphasizing democracy and accountability as being fundamental to an independent state. It is time for the EU to link its state-building initiatives in the Occupied Palestinian Territory with a clear political position at the "high-politics” level and to translate them into reality. If the focus of these two CSDP missions is not shifted away from polishing the already smooth-functioning Palestinian security apparatus and more towards reflecting the political aims of the peace process, it begs the question of whether these missions can continue to serve as useful instruments for the EU to promote the peace process.
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

39582. Deeper Defence Cooperation: Finland and Sweden together again?

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Finland and Sweden are increasing their bilateral defence cooperation. Officially, it is restricted to peacetime and international crisis management operation activities, but it nonetheless has national territorial defence impacts. The planned deepening of cooperation between Finland and Sweden builds on the already extensive daily cooperation between the two countries. Both Finland and Sweden see deeper cooperation as an important addition to cooperation within the EU, NATO, and NORDEFCO frameworks, as well as other significant bilateral cooperative relationships. Fruitful cooperation will require strengthening trust among military and political actors, as well as an acknowledgement of differing perspectives regarding the role of the defence industry in security and defence policy formation. Cooperation may continue to deepen as the momentum for it builds, or through a binding agreement developing into a defence alliance – Defence Alliance Finland-Sweden (DAFS).
Political Geography:: Finland and Sweden

39583. The Indian Ocean Tsunami, 10 Years On: Lessons from the response and ongoing humanitarian funding challenges

Author:: Sophia Ayele
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was a pivotal moment for the humanitarian sector; many lessons were learned and the humanitarian system was strengthened as a result. However, ten years on, significant challenges remain. Using the case of the tsunami – a rare example of a well-funded humanitarian emergency – The Indian Ocean Tsunami, 10 Years On looks at key lessons from the response and examines why some emergencies receive rapid, generous funding while others remain virtually ignored by the international community. As humanitarian need increases, it is imperative that the global community continue to work towards adequate, needs-based funding, and strives to reduce the costs and human impacts of future humanitarian emergencies.

39584. How Effective are Benefits Sanctions? An investigation into the effectiveness of the post-2012 sanctions regime for Jobseeker's Allowance claimants

Author:: Howard Reed
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This report looks at the application of sanctions in the UK social security system. Sanctions are defined as the reduction or withdrawal of benefits from claimants on the grounds that they have failed to observe the conditions attached to their benefit claim. Whilst successive Governments have increased use of sanctions in the system, the current Government has expanded conditionality criteria and increased the length of sanctions since October 2012. This was to align non-compliance of conditionality more to changes under Universal Credit, and to make conditions for receipt of benefit clearer. This report finds that there is no evidence that increased use of sanctions in Jobcentre Plus districts between October 2012 and June 2014 led to decreased unemployment or increased employment. It therefore seems that sanctions are not achieving the desired goal to increase employment for claimants.

39585. Missed Again: Making space for partnership in the typhoon Haiyan response

Author:: Andy Featherstone and Carino Antequisa
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Humanitarian partnerships between national and international organisations are a long-established means of responding to humanitarian need. As long ago as 1994 the NGO/Red Cross Code of Conduct emphasised the importance of working collaboratively with national organisations, and in 2007 the Principles of Partnership outlined best practice in humanitarian partnership working. Given the considerable support that exists for humanitarian partnership it is disappointing that as recently as 2012, in her preface to ALNAP's State of the Humanitarian System report, the UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs lamented the 'lack of inclusion of non-traditional actors such as National Disaster Management Authorities and southern NGOs... which undermined the effectiveness of many operations'

39586. From Words to Facts: Acting on climate change in Central America

Author:: Rosalba Landa and Beatriz Olivera
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Climate change will strongly affect the production of food and the life conditions of the farming and indigenous families in Central America. The increase in temperatures and the modification of the rainfall cycles will impact the availability of water for the food production and for the populations. In Latin America and the Caribbean, in the past decade, more than 15 million people were affected by floods while more than 3 million were affected by extreme droughts and almost 5 million by extreme temperatures. Furthermore, according to the previsions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the increase in the number of people at risk from suffering from famine could concern 5 million people by the year 2020, and reach up to 26 million by the year 2050.
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

39587. Emergency Use Only: Understanding and reducing the use of food banks in the UK

Author:: Moussa Haddad, Jane Perry, Martin Williams, and Tom Sefton
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Use of emergency food aid in the UK, particularly in the form of food banks, has dramatically increased over the last decade. This research, jointly conducted by Oxfam, Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG), the Church of England and The Trussell Trust, examines why people are turning to food banks, how food bank use fits with their wider coping strategies, and what might be done to reduce the need that leads to food bank use. Our research used a combination of methodological approaches. We conducted 40 in-depth interviews with clients at 7 food banks in a diverse range of areas across the UK, collected additional administrative data from more than 900 clients at 3 of those food banks regarding the reasons for their referral, and analysed a caseload of 178 clients accessing an advice service at one food bank.
Political Geography:: England

39588. Meaningful Action: Effective approaches to women's economic empowerment in agriculture

Author:: David Bright, Caroline Green, and Thalia Kidder
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The growing focus on creating employment for women is welcome, but for women to be economically empowered, it must be decent work with safeguards, alongside integrated interventions to address the structural barriers faced by women. Without this dual approach, evidence shows that apart from a few exceptional women leaders, the majority of women may not be able to access jobs or benefit fully from them. Working women continue to face heavy and unequal responsibilities for household work and care, remaining in low-paid and precarious work, and vulnerable to abuse. Successful experiences have stemmed from integrated investments in social infrastructure, such as women's organisations, social protection, essential services and positive social norms, with transparent governance supporting good employment practices such as written contracts and a living wage.

39589. Hidden Hunger in South Africa: The faces of hunger and malnutrition in a food-secure nation

Author:: Yared Teka Tsegay, Masiiwa Rusare, and Rashmi Mistry
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: South Africa is supposedly a food-secure nation, producing enough calories to feed every one of its 53 million citizens. But despite some progress, one in four people currently suffers hunger on a regular basis and more than half of the population live in such precarious circumstances that they are at risk of going hungry.
Political Geography:: South Africa

39590. A Sign of Things to Come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010-2013, and their impacts on food security

Author:: Coghlan Christopher, Muzammil Maliha, Ingram John, Vervoort Joost, Otto Friederike, and James Rachel
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This report analyses impacts of four extreme weather events (a heat wave in Russia, flooding in Pakistan, drought in East Africa, and a typhoon in the Philippines) on food security. For each case, the nature of the extreme weather is characterized, and its impact on vulnerable people is assessed by considering when and why threats emerge, and the role of governance in the state and non - state responses to the emergency. Scenarios of the plausible impacts of increased extreme weather severity on food security and other socioeconomic parameters are presented for each case.
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, Philippines, and East Africa

39591. The UN Climate Summit's Public–Private Action Announcements: Sorting the promising from the greenwash

Author:: Hanks Kiri
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: UN Secretary - General Ban Ki - moon invited business leaders to bring to the Climate Summit the bold actions they are undertaking to address climate change. These public – private initiatives are touted to be a key outcome of the summit – especially given that few governments will be in a position to make major new commitments. The hope is that they will inject some positive momentum into the global talks by showing that business is already 'getting on with it' and leading the way.

39592. The Politics of Polarization: Governance and Party System Change in Latin America, 1990–2010

Author:: Sam Handlin
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: What are the causes and implications of polarization in new democracies? During Latin America's “Left Turn” period, highly polarized party systems emerged in some countries–Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and El Salvador–but not the rest of the region. This paper proposes a theory to explain variation, centered on the presence of electorally relevant parties of the left in the pre-Left Turn period and, most critically, the quality of governance in that period. Poor governance created opportunities for partisan actors on the left to politicize a second dimension of political contestation, anti - systemic versus systemic positions on the design and operation of the state, and thus chart alternative paths to electoral viability that required little left - right programmatic moderation. This dynamic empowered radical party factions and drove polarizing dynamics in party systems. High quality governance, in contrast, gave left parties little choice but to moderate their programs in search of electoral viability. This dynamic empowered moderate party factions and drove centripetal dynamics in party systems. Empirically, the paper tests these arguments through a broad overview of the case universe and in - depth case studies of Venezuela and Brazil.
Topic:: Geopolitics
Political Geography:: America, Brazil, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Bolivia, and El Salvador

39593. Strengthening Democratic Quality: Reactive Deliberation in the Context of Direct Democracy

Author:: David Altman
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Acknowledging that mechanisms of direct democracy can fall prey to narrow and egoistic interests (regardless of how legitimate they may be) and that legislatures do not always have the incentives to articulate responses to those narrow interests, I propose a hypothetical reform: any time a popular vote (i.e., initiative, referendum, or authorities' referendum) is held, representative and direct institutions should be supplied with a stratified random sample of eligible voters convened to advance citizens' counterproposals. This original institution—which does not exist even in the places where direct democracy is most developed—would discuss, deliberate, and offer an alternative or an improvement to a policy question that is to be decided in the near future; it would refine and enlarge public views on a contentious topic, providing meaningful political choices, and thus strengthening democratic quality. In arguing for this, my research takes insights from two real-world situations—Uruguay's two 2009 initiatives for constitutional reform—in which citizens' counterproposals could have played a crucial role in informing public views on a contentious topic and offered an alternative to both sides of the debate.

39594. A Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy

Author:: Svend-Erik Skaaning, John Gerring, and Henrikas Bartusevičius
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: Recent years have seen an efflorescence of work focused on the definition and operationalization of democracy. One debate concerns the scale, i.e., whether democracy is best measured by binary or graded scales. Critics of binary indices point out at that they are overly reductionist; all features of a regime must be reduced to a single coding decision, producing binary sets that lack discriminating power. Defenders counter that the different levels of graded measures are not associated with a specific set of conditions, meaning that they are difficult to interpret. Against this backdrop, we propose to operationalize electoral democracy as a series of necessary-and sufficient conditions arrayed in an ordinal scale. The resulting “lexical” index of electoral democracy, based partly on new data collected by the authors, covers all independent countries of the world from 1800 to 2008. It incorporates binary coding of its sub-components based on factual characteristics of regimes and in this way reduces the problem of subjective judgments by coders for non-binary democracy indices. Binary codings are aggregated into an ordinal scale using a cumulative logic. In this fashion, we arrive at an index that performs a classificatory function – each level identifies a unique and theoretically meaningful regime type – as well as a discriminating function.

39595. Investment as the key to recovery in the euro area?

Author:: Daniel Gros
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The mantra in Brussels and all over Europe is that investment holds the key to recovery in the euro area. A central element of the new Commission's economic strategy is a proposed programme of investment of €300 billion.The emphasis on investment is not new, but has grown in strength as the euro area seems stuck in a never-ending recession.
Political Geography:: Europe

39596. Still making it: An analysis of manufacturing labour costs in China

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:: In the debate over global manufacturing competitiveness, the labour cost question looms largest. The rapid growth in Chinese wages is having an impact not only on firms currently manufacturing in China, but also on emerging economies seeking to grab a share of that manufacturing activity (like Vietnam and Bangladesh) and developed countries seeking to revive their own manufacturing sectors (like the US). Rising wages in China could threaten the country's status as a manufacturing powerhouse if they are not matched by comparable gains in productivity.
Political Geography:: Bangladesh, United States, China, and Vietnam

39597. Something in the Air: "Isolationism," Defense Spending, and the US Public Mood

Author:: Carl Conetta
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:: The report analyzes current and historical U.S. public opinion polls on global engagement, military intervention, and defense spending, finding significant fluctuation in public sentiments. The report assesses these in light of changes in policy, strategic conditions, and the economy. A comprehensive review of opinion surveys shows a trend of growing public discontent with aspects of post-Cold War U.S. global policy. This has been misconstrued by some as evidence of "neo-isolationism." In fact, a solid majority of Americans continue to support an active U.S. role in the world. Public dissent focuses more narrowly on U.S. military activism and the idea that the United States should bear unique responsibility for the world's security. Official policy along these lines has weakened public support for global engagement generally, but the public does not prefer isolation. On balance, Americans favor cooperative, diplomatic approaches to resolving conflict and they tend toward a "last resort" principle on going to war. Still, Americans will support forceful action against aggression when vital U.S. interests seem at risk. And, in prospect, they express a willingness to stem genocide. The public's initial impetus to war may be strongly emotive, tied to a catalytic event. However, polls show that more pragmatic considerations soon come into play. Ongoing support requires that the costs of war match the perceived benefits. Domestic economic conditions are key in determining the perceived "opportunity cost" of war. To gain and sustain support, military goals must be perceived as realistic, pragmatic, and cost-effective. Generally speaking, Americans do not favor involvement in most third-party interstate wars or in any civil wars. They also do not now support regime change efforts, armed nation-building, or persisting constabulary roles. On balance, the U.S. public lacks a "crusading spirit" with regard to the use of force abroad – whether the aim is posed in moral, humanitarian, political, or geopolitical terms. The current spike in support for bombing ISIS is consistent with the limits and precepts outlined above. Support will waver if the mission grows or fails to show real progress. Opinion surveys show a chronic gap between elite and public views on military intervention and America's global role. A preference for military activism and dominant global leadership finds greater representation among foreign policy elites than among the general public. Among the public, there is greater representation of selective engagement, cooperative security, and isolationist views (although the latter view is not predominant). Elite-public differences may reflect differences in how costs and benefits are experienced. Singular events such as the 9/11 attacks can temporarily close the gap, but it re-emerges if and when the public begins to feel that the costs of military activism are exceeding its benefits. One consequence of public displeasure with recent wars is reduced support for defense spending. Counter-balancing this is an enduring desire for superior defense capabilities – a preference that does not imply support for military activism. The public will support relatively high levels of defense spending as a deterrent and an insurance policy, while not intending to write a blank check for military activism. Public perceptions of security threats and of the health of America's defenses are pivotal in determining sentiments about defense spending. They also are quite malleable. Partisan political dynamics are another factor significantly affecting public opinion on defense spending. Military spending is a perennial political football, and public preferences about spending are partly determined by partisan allegiances. Today, opinion continues to favor reduced spending, although this may soon change. Looking back over a 40-year period, there have been several "pivot points" during which attitudes about spending rapidly changed from "spend less" to "spend more." Conditions characteristic of those pivot points are increasingly evident today. With the advent of intensely polarized electoral campaigns, now and historically, the security policy debate shifts in a hawkish direction. Political actors desiring increased Pentagon spending and/or a more confrontational posture abroad have at their disposal several effective "issue framing" devices for biasing public debate and opinion. One effective framing device is to pose the defense budget discussion in terms of the putative danger of a "hollow military." Another is to define current security challenges and choices using Second World War metaphors – such as references to Hitler, Munich, appeasement, and isolationism. Both devices are now fully deployed, making it likely that leading presidential nominees will advocate significant boosts in Pentagon spending in 2016. Although public opinion may swing into support for higher spending levels as an acceptable assertion of national strength, historical precedent suggests that the public will not soon support a return to big protracted military operations abroad. Precedent also suggests that increased support for spending, should it emerge, will not last long if national leaders continue to over-reach internationally, as already seems likely.
Political Geography:: United States and America

39598. Bootstrap Immigrants: Assessing the Conservative Transformation of Canada's Immigration Policy

Author:: John Ibbitson
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Of all the reforms launched by this most conservative of Conservative governments, none surpass the root-and-branch restructuring of Canada's immigration polices. And what has come before does not equal what is to come. On January 1, 2015, the federal government will replace the points system used to select immigrants for nigh on 50 years with the entirely new Express Entry program.
Political Geography:: Canada

39599. China-Myanmar Relations Since Naypyidaw's Political Transition: How Beijing can Balance Short-term Interests and Long-term Values

Author:: Chenyang Li and James Char
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In discussions on Myanmar's political reforms since the installation of a civilianised military regime in 2011, most analysts have focused on the bedevilment of bilateral ties between Beijing and Naypyidaw. To be sure, China has since become more attuned to the concerns of non-state actors with the opening up of Myanmar's political space as well as recalibrated its strategies in the face of renewed diplomatic competition from other countries in vying for the affections of the Burmese leadership. In acknowledging the corrections China's Myanmar policy has undergone, this article argues that Beijing's factoring in of Burmese national interests and development needs can help enhance its prospects. While a return to the previous robust bilateral relationship may appear inconceivable in the near future, this article concludes that there is still hope for Beijing in overcoming the challenges posed by Naypyidaw's political transition should it be able to keep up with the latter's evolution over the longer term.
Political Geography:: China, Beijing, Myanmar, and Naypyidaw

39600. Harvard-Tsinghua Workshop on Market Mechanisms to Achieve a Low-Carbon Future for China

Author:: Henry Lee, Scott Moore, Sabrina Howell, and Alice Xia
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: In recent decades there has been a gradual transformation in environmental policy away from command-and-control policies and toward the use of more flexible, market-based mechanisms. This transformation is evident in the environmental policy of the United States, and the European Union where many scholars and policymakers have accepted the argument that, in comparison with more traditional regulatory approaches, market-centered solutions offer a cheaper and more efficient way to achieve many environmental policy objectives. While market mechanisms may work in certain economies and certain countries, whether they are appropriate for addressing the problem of climate change for countries without an institutionalized domestic market economy, such as china, is still an open question. This report summarizes the discussions, conclusions, and questions posed during The Harvard- Tsinghua Workshop on Market Mechanisms to Achieve a Low-Carbon Future for China. As the report makes clear, most participants believe that market mechanisms have a powerful role to play in achieving a low-carbon future for China. However, considerable differences emerged among the participants regarding the proper design and implementation of market mechanisms, and sig-nificant questions remain concerning the proper role of market mechanisms in addressing climate change. This report, and the workshop it summarizes, does not attempt to resolve these differences, but aims to contribute to an ongoing discussion on the future of climate policy in China. The re¬mainder of this Introduction describes the context for the workshop, its three thematic sessions, and outlines three over-arching themes that emerged. These themes are explored in the summaries of the three thematic sessions, while the Conclusion raises issues for further research. The impetus for the workshop was laid out in three public keynote speeches that addressed, respec¬tively, China's desire to achieve a low-carbon future, reasons to prefer market mechanisms over other potential solutions, and the importance of sustaining innovation in achieving climate policy objectives. China has adopted pilot cap-and-trade programs in five Provinces and two cities – to¬gether accounting for seven percent of the country's total carbon dioxide emissions. These pilots support a vision of achieving a “third industrial revolution” where economic growth and value-creation is de-coupled from carbon dioxide emissions. Second, market mechanisms are generally preferred by economists to regulation and subsidies as a means to reduce emissions because they achieve reductions at a lower overall cost, tend to direct emissions to their highest-value uses, and demand less institutional capacity since emitters rather than governments decide how to reduce emissions. Third, emissions reductions need to be linked to continual technological and policy in¬novation, as well as the need for proper design and implementation of market mechanisms. This point was emphasized with reference to the European Union Emissions Trading System (EUETS), where initial carbon permit prices were too low to incentivize low-carbon research and develop¬ment. The low initial price of the EUETS made it more palatable to industry, but too low to send a significant market signal due to institutional weaknesses and the economic downturn. The keynote addresses framed the discussion for the remainder of the workshop, which consisted of three off-the-record thematic sessions. Each thematic session focused on a different set of mar¬ket mechanisms to address different facets of the climate policy challenge. The first session exam¬ined instruments designed to limit and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, either by imposition of a tax designed to internalize the external cost of climate disruption or through establishment of a cap-and-trade system whereby permits to emit carbon dioxide are issued under an overall cap set by government, and which can then be traded as some emitters make efficiency improvements. The second session examined the use of subsidies and other incentives to encourage clean technol¬ogy innovation, and the third session examined the potential for a water-rights trading system to allocate water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity triggered by disruption in precipi¬tation and increased evaporation rates. The workshop concluded with a session devoted to developing a framework for further research and debate on the use of market mechanisms to refine and advance China's climate policy. The framework centered on three over-arching issues concerning market mechanisms: policy mix, innovation systems, and governance. The first of these issues concerns the inclusion of market mechanisms in a broader mix of policy responses, including command-and-control, which may be combined to achieve specific policy objectives. The second concerns the use of market mecha¬nisms to develop, sustain, and enhance innovation systems that continually create new solutions and technologies to achieve a low-carbon future. The third concerns the importance of institutional design and governance systems to ensure the proper functioning of market mechanisms.
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS