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38901. Happy Neighbors Are Good For You, Wealthy Ones Are Not: Some Insights From a First Study of Well-Being in Mongolia

Author:
Carol Graham, Tuugi Chuluun, and Sarandavaa Myanganbuu
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We conducted the first extensive study of well-being in Mongolia, a country that has experienced a dramatic transition in both its economy and polity in recent decades. We found that most of the standard determinants of well-being were no different in Mongolia than they are for most countries in the world, with individual income, health, marital status and exercise all positively associated with life satisfaction; the same variables had positive but weaker correlations with our hedonic well-being measure. As in many other contexts, we found that, controlling for individual income, average community income was negatively correlated with life satisfaction, although not with hedonic well-being. This is not surprising, as comparison effects are more likely to influence overall life evaluations than they are daily (or weekly) moods and experience. In contrast, average community-level well-being—in both evaluative and hedonic dimensions—was positively associated with individual well-being. While being around wealthier people may generate envy among some, being around happier people has positive externalities (except, perhaps, for the very unhappy). Thus, at least in Mongolia, wealthier neighbors are not necessarily g ood for you, but happier ones surely are.
Topic:
Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Mongolia

38902. Adjusting Assistance to the 21st Century: A Revised Agenda for Foreign Assistance Reform

Author:
George Ingram
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A decade of reform of U.S. development assistance programs has brought significant and important improvement in the nature and delivery of U.S. assistance. But the 21st century world is witnessing constant change in development. More developing countries are ascending to middle income status and gaining the capability, resources, and desire to finance and direct their own development. The rapid expansion of private capital flows, remittances, and domestic resources has significantly reduced the relative role of donor assistance in financing development. Donors are becoming more numerous and varied. There is growing recognition that the private sector, both nationally and internationally, is an indispensable component of sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

38903. Understanding Mandis: Market Towns and the Dynamics of India's Rural and Urban Transformations

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Mekhala Krishnamurthy
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Mandis or physical, primary agricultural markets are old and ubiquitous institutions of economic life in many parts of India. Wherever they form, they are usually dense sites of economic, social and political activity, connecting and shaping the relations between town and countryside, and between local markets for commodities and larger, national and global circuits of capital and commerce. According to available estimates, there are over 7500 regulated agricultural markets in India today, operating under different state level acts covering a huge variety of notified agricultural produce.
Topic:
Agriculture, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
India and Asia

38904. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

38905. If Not Now, When? Ending Violence Against the World's Children

Author:
David Steven
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The world faces old and new security challenges that are more complex than our multilateral and national institutions are currently capable of managing. International cooperation is ever more necessary in meeting these challenges. The NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) works to enhance international responses to conflict, insecurity, and scarcity through applied research and direct engagement with multilateral institutions and the wider policy community.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Children

38906. Mitigating the Security Risks Posed by a Near-Nuclear Iran

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
US President Barack Obama has called the international dispute over Iran's advanced nuclear program "one of the leading security challenges of our time." Fitting for a problem of this magnitude, analysts have thoroughly examined the major policy options for addressing the challenge, including most notably, diplomacy, containment, and military strikes. Lost in this focus on the broad policy options to prevent or deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, however, is the acknowledgement that Iran already possesses a latent nuclear weapons capability and that this capability poses several threats to international peace and security at present. Moreover, it is almost certain that Iran will retain such a capability in the short to medium term regardless of how the nuclear diplomacy progresses-and even if the international community and Iran agree to a "comprehensive" nuclear deal. Rather than an exclusive focus on broad strategies for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, therefore, it would also be prudent to identify and mitigate against the challenges posed by Iran's extant latent nuclear capability, a capability that will likely remain in place even if Washington's policy of prevention is successful.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Iran

38907. The Die Is Cast: Confronting Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe

Author:
Christopher Musselman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Ukraine crisis demonstrates that European security can no longer be taken for granted and that NATO and the broader transatlantic community are struggling to address emerging security challenges. Whether Russia is classified revanchist, expanding its sphere of influence, or seeking to create regional hegemony, Putin's actions in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine are a stark reminder that the era of geopolitical competition in Europe is far from over. The transatlantic community must be ready to deal with similar challenges in the decades ahead.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

38908. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya

Author:
Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The French intellectual Jean Baudrillard once said, “It is always the same: once you are liberated, you are forced to ask who you are.” In the case of Libya, this question should have been at the center of every political initiative immediately following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Libya's new leadership had the opportunity to convene a national dialogue in an effort to explore questions of national identity and a new vision for a national mission. Unfortunately, the Libyan elites who emerged from the 2011 civil war did not make national dialogue a priority, opting to appease local forces—armed and political—rather than to undertake the difficult but critical task of nation-building.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

38909. Completing Europe – From the North-South Corridor to Energy, Transportation, and Telecommunications Union

Author:
Atlantic Council and CEEP
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
One of the greatest successes of our new century has been the progress made in unifying Europe. The accession of Central Europe's countries to the European Union (EU) has contributed to the end of division that wrought confrontations and conflicts. Yet this task is far from finished. Europe's economic woes, as well as new security challenges along the Union's eastern border add to the urgency of completing and consolidating the European integration project as part of our transatlantic vision of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Europe

38910. Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance

Author:
Michael J. Green, David J. Berteau, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Three years have passed since President Barack Obama laid the groundwork for the U.S. rebalance to the Asia Pacific region. Support for the rebalance strategy is substantial, but questions remain about its implementation. As China's power grows and its assertive- ness in regional disputes increases, U.S. allies and partners continue to rely on the United States to help reinforce regional security. In this increasingly tense Asia Pacific security environment, it is critical that regional allies, partners, and competitors recognize and acknowledge that the United States is a Pacific power with the ability to carry out its rebalance strategy.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

38911. Leveraging Global Value Chains for a Federated Approach to Defense

Author:
David J. Berteau, Scott Miller, Ryan Crotty, and Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
CSIS launched the Federated Defense Project to assess and recommend concrete ways for the United States and its partners to integrate their defense capabilities in support of shared interests. Rather than creating interdependencies that would hinder autonomous action or bind partners to commitments to which they only share a tangential interest, the federated defense strategy builds on the natural interests of allies and partners to develop closer working ties to the United States and one another in order to manage the challenges posed by constrained resources and a daunting geostrategic environment. Buttressing any form of federated defense must be a set of bottom-up, organic interactions within the private sector to develop the capabilities that will underpin these security architectures. The expansion of business-to-business relationships among providers of platforms, supplies, and services to the network of trusted partners and allies is a key building block in ensuring adequate capabilities development, integration, and interoperability. To date, this interaction has occurred despite the many barriers that exist to their success. A federated approach will seek to enable this cooperation and lower these barriers, leading to greater cooperation, collaboration, and integration through global value chains (GVCs). Addressing the findings below is essential to the successful execution of a federated approach to defense.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Privatization, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States

38912. U.S. Support Essential to Ambitious Global Introduction of Inactivated Polio Vaccine

Author:
Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Earlier this fall, Nepal became the first low - income country to introduce the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into its immunization system. Many more countries will have to follow suit to meet the ambitious deadlines laid out in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's (GPEI) Polio Eradication Endgame Strategic Plan 2013 – 2018. The plan calls for global introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine childhood immunization schedules followed by eventual withdrawal of the widely used oral polio vaccine (OPV). Currently, 75 mostly high - and middle - income countries use the injectable IPV in their immunization systems, leaving 119 that need to do so by the end of 2015 to keep with the plan's schedule.
Topic:
Health and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and Nepal

38913. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

38914. The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan increased 36.8 percent between 2012 and 2013. Fatalities increased 25.3 percent and injuries increased 36.9 percent. No specific perpetrator organization was identified for 86.2 percent of all attacks in Pakistan. Of the remaining attacks, nearly half (49%) were carried out by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Attacks attributed to the TTP killed more than 550 and wounded more than 1,200 in 2013. Twenty other groups, including a number of Baloch nationalist groups such as the Baloch Republican Army, the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Baloch Liberation Tigers, carried out attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. More than 37 percent of all attacks in Pakistan took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 28.4 percent took place in Balochistan, and 21.2 percent took place in Sindh province. The proportion of attacks in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) decreased from 19.6 percent in 2012 to 9.4 percent in 2013. The most frequently attacked types of targets in Pakistan were consistent with global patterns. More than 22 percent of all attacks primarily targeted private citizens and property, more than 17 percent primarily targeted the police, and more than 11 percent primarily targeted general (non-diplomatic) government entities. However, these three types of targets accounted for a smaller proportion of attacks in Pakistan (51.1%) than they did globally (61.7%). Instead, terrorist attacks in Pakistan were almost twice as likely to target educational institutions (6.4%) and more than three times as likely to target violent political parties (4.4%), organizations that have at times engaged in both electoral politics and terrorist violence.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

38915. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:
Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Asia and Latin America

38916. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

38917. Rapid Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Now and Forever?

Author:
Giang Ho and Paolo Mauro
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
With economic growth in advanced economies still lackluster or elusive, much hope for world prosperity rests on projections of continued strength in developing and emerging economies. On average, the economic growth rate in these economies was roughly twice as high—on an unweighted per capita basis—as in the advanced economies during the past decade. According to the forecasts analyzed in this Policy Brief, this superior performance is projected to extend into the next two decades.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

38918. Avrupa'da Erken Dönem Sosyalist Teori ve İşçi Hareketleri (1830-1840)

Author:
Ateş Uslu
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Avrupa'da 1830'lu yıllarda sosyalist düşünce, işçi hareketleri ve komplocu/devrimci hareketler entelektüel ve siyasi yaşamın önemli bileşenleridir. Marx ve Engels dönemin teorisyenlerinden ve siyasi liderlerinden doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak etkilenmiş, bazı eserlerinde bunlarla polemiğe girmiş - lerdir. Bu yazıda 1830'lu yıllarda sosyalist düşüncenin, işçi hareketlerinin ve devrimci hareketlerin gelişiminin temel dinamiklerinin incelenmesi hedef - lenmektedir. İlk bölüm Büyük Britanya'da 1830'lu yılların sınai gelişiminin toplumsal tarihte yaptığı etkiler, Çartist hareketin oluşumu ve Owen'cı hareketin 1830'lu yıllardaki dönüşümleri ele alınacaktır. İkinci bölüm 1830'lu yıllarda Fransa'da sosyalist düşüncenin çeşitlenmesine ve işçi hareketinin gelişimine ayrılmıştır. Makalenin bütününde sanayi kapitalizminin yaptığı hamleler ile kitle hareketlerinin önem kazanması arasındaki bağıntıya dikkat çekilmiştir. Ütopyacı düşüncenin 1830'lu yıllarda önemini koruması ve aynı dönemde felsefe ve sosyalist düşünce akımları arasında yoğun bir ilişkinin kurulmaya başlanması da makalede vurgulanan konular arasındadır. Çalış - manın bütününde sosyalizmin gelişiminin temel dinamiklerinin, 1830'lu yıllarınsosyal-ekonomik ve siyasal gelişmeleriyle bağlantısı içinde incelenmesi hedeflenm ektedir.

38919. Ölüm ve Zulmün Üç Hali: Birinci Dünya Savaşı'nda Bitlis Cephesi

Author:
Adem Ölmez
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Bu makalede Birinci Dünya Savaşı'nda Bitlis'te Müslümanların ve Erme - nilerin çektiği sıkıntılar, üç aşama/hal halinde anlatılmaktadır. Birinci aşa - ma, Rusların ilk taarruzları sırasında Müslümanlara yaptıkları katliamlardır. İkinci aşama, 1915 ortalarında yerli Ermenilerin çektiği sıkıntılardır. Bilin - diği gibi, Rusların geri çekilmesi üzerine bölgedeki Ermeniler korunmasız kaldılar. Bu süreçte Müslümanların saldırılarına maruz kaldılar ve göçe zor - landılar. Üçüncü hal ise, 1916 başlarında Rusların yeniden saldırıya geçme - leriyle başladı. 1916 başlarından itibaren Bitlis üzerinden güneye ilerlemeyi planladılar; ancak planları istedikleri gibi gitmedi. Bitlis'te düzenli ordularla milis güçlerinin ittifak ettiği büyük bir direnişle karşılaştılar. Rus-Ermeni bir - likleri Bitlis'i geçebilmek için büyük katliamlar yaptılar. Müslüman ahalinin yaşadığı yerlerde kadın, çocuk ve ihtiyarlardan oluşan grupları toplu olarak katlettiler. Rus Ermeni kuvvetleri yeniden Müslüman ahaliye zulmetmeye başladılar. Bu süreç Rusya'da Bolşevik devriminin belirtilerinin görülmeye başlamasına kadar devam etti. Ermenilerin Ruslarla birlikte hareket ederek eski komşuları olan Müslümanlara zulmetmesi Müslümanlar arasında Er - menilere karşı büyük nefretlerin oluşmasına zemin hazırladı. Daha sonraki olaylarda bu nefretlerin büyük payı oldu.

38920. European Integration, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Stability in the Western Balkans: A New Strategy

Author:
Aydın Babuna
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Perceptions
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The February 2014 protests in Bosnia- Herzegovina have shown clearly that Bosnia- Herzegovina is still- 20 years after the signing of the Dayton Accords- the key country for security in the Western Balkans. These protests have also shown the limits of the influence of EU policies in the region, and have again sparked local and international discussions about the future role of the international community in general, and the EU in particular. Besides the discussion about quick and large-scale change to the Dayton Constitution, some observers and students of Balkan politics have pointed to the need for partial reforms, while others favour the idea that the international community should stop meddling in Bosnian affairs. The early reactions of EU officials to the events in Bosnia-Herzegovina have prioritised socio-economic measures rather than constitutional reforms. The following article stresses the importance of an increased EU commitment to Bosnia-Herzegovina under a revised and comprehensive strategy. The new strategy should include improving the economy as one of its priorities; however, the EU should also increase its efforts for constitutional reforms and assume more responsibility to make the Bosnian state functional. The article also highlights that recent events in Bosnia-Herzegovina have illustrated the urgency for a more decisive enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans and argues that the integration of the Western Balkans and Turkey with the EU are not rival processes but complementary.The article first examines the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Balkans in the post-Dayton period and then makes suggestions to improve security and stability in the Western Balkans.
Political Geography:
Europe

38921. Next Steps to Combat Star Creep: The Costs of a Top Heavy Military

Author:
Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
Following Third Way's release of Star Creep: The Costs of a Top Heavy Military , Congress tasked the Government Accountability Office (GAO) with figuring out exactly how much money this bloat costs taxpayers. DoD's answer to GAO: we don't know. According to the GAO Report, "The full cost to DOD...is unknown because complete cost data were not available." Additionally, despite not knowing the full cost of their Generals and Admirals and not having conducted an analysis of the number of top-commanders the military needs to fulfill military missions, Pentagon officials told GAO they wanted more. In an era of constrained budgets it's simply unacceptable for the Pentagon to grow the back office while the front-lines shrink. Thus, Third Way now recommends that Congress require the Pentagon to: Conduct a comprehensive review of requirements for Generals and Admirals. Take the necessary steps to determine the full-cost to taxpayers of Generals and Admirals, as recommended by GAO.

38922. Making the Case: Dismissing the Major Critiques of Syria's Chemical Weapons Destruction

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The F-35, or Joint Strike Fighter, is America’s next-generation manned fighter jet, but this $1.5 trillion program—the most expensive weapon program ever—has been plagued by costly delays and design challenges. There is a solution to the F-35 dilemma: slow down. The threats facing the U.S. today do not require that we rush the F-35 into production. We can save billions by further testing the aircraft. In this time of budget cutting and sequestration, the issue of F-35 spending is significant. Here’s how to talk about this weapon system—and how to fix it.
Political Geography:
Africa

38923. Making the Case: What are the Real Lessons of Benghazi?

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
It’s time to move beyond the partisan finger-pointing over the September 11, 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya. Policymakers should instead consider pragmatic solutions to reduce the chances of such an attack occurring in the future. Here are four ways for policymakers to make this case: It’s time to stop the finger-pointing. We must protect our diplomats better. We must position rapid reaction teams better. We need to build better leadership at the State Department.
Political Geography:
Bangladesh

38924. What to Expect in the House Defense Authorization Bill

Author:
Mieke Eoyang and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The House will soon consider the FY 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This memo provides a preview of the NDAA floor debate and highlights both good and bad elements in the Committee bill.

38925. US Reconstruction Aid for Afghanistan: The Dollars and Sense

Author:
Catherine Lutz and Sujaya Desai
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The United States, and its allies, the UN, NGOs, and the World Bank, have injected billions of dollars into what is commonly termed the "reconstruction" of Afghanistan since the war began in 2001. This paper focuses on United States spending on aid in Afghanistan, describing the rationale government officials have given for the aid, what they have spent money on, who has profited from the contracts to provide aid, and what the consequences of that spending have been in terms of benefits to the people of Afghanistan or the United States. The central findings of this review of US government investigative reports and existing field-based scholarship are that reconstruction aid has been allocated primarily to re-arming and policing Afghanistan, with poor or even counterproductive outcomes in both security and other-than-security domains. Furthermore, US companies have been among the primary beneficiaries of this aid, despite widespread fraud, waste, and dysfunction. In contrast to a focus on human needs, and rather than rebuilding the basis of a modern state, reconstruction has been focused on furthering United States security interests. Reconstruction thus sets the foundation for continued violence and impoverishment in the years to come.
Topic:
Corruption, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

38926. What War Has Wrought in Afghan Women's Lives

Author:
Jennifer Heath
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The “liberation” of Afghan women became a justification of the George W. Bush administration for the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. Good intentions notwithstanding, Western feminists often painted a distorted portrait of absolutely helpless Afghan women buried alive in their burqas. One sad result of this black--‐and--‐white thinking, which overlooks the nuances and diversity of Afghan life and society, has been a severe curtailing of the quality, quantity, and endurance of whatever help Western women try to offer their Afghan sisters. This paper gives a historical overview of the realities of Afghan women's lives, contrasting these with common perceptions about Afghan women held by those outside Afghanistan – often misperceptions upon which millions of dollars of foreign aid have been spent. A description of Afghan women's social context touches on their views of the Taliban, women's political rights and empowerment throughout history, and women's access to healthcare and education. This paper argues that unless every step is taken with consideration for Afghan women's concerns, within the diverse contexts of their real lives, there can be no lasting peace. Any peace agreements must include clear commitments from all sides to respect and protect women's rights.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

38927. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan

Author:
Norah Niland
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
Topic:
Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

38928. The Continuing Cost of the Iraq War: The Spread of Jihadi Groups Throughout the Region

Author:
Jessica Stern
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
The US invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, initiated in part to retaliate against Al Qaeda for the 9/11 strikes, had the effect of inspiring the creation of new Al Qaeda franchises. One such group is The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, formed as the Iraqi Al Qaeda affiliates spread into Syria. The formation of ISIS and the other Jihadi groups active in Syria and now spreading elsewhere through the region, together responsible for thousands of deaths, is one of the many costs of the Iraq war. These new groups - which formed and trained during the US occupation of Iraq - are impeding US foreign policy and preventing donor nations from providing humanitarian relief.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Syria

38929. The Politics of History: India and China, 1949-1962

Author:
Nirupama Rao
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
When speaking of the politics of history involving the relationship between India and China in the period before the conflict of 1962, it is essential that we should have a sense of proportion about that history, distilling the meaning of the events that transpired and the key determinants in the evolving relationship between these two Asian powers in mid-century. How does that history connect to us, and how we shape our future? While there can be infinite meanings attached to what caused the war between India and China, what lessons are to be learnt about leadership, about public opinion, about logistical and military preparedness, about narrowing differences, and about negotiation?
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

38930. Socializing the European Semester? Economic Governance and Social Policy Coordination in Europe 2020

Author:
Jonathan Zeitlin and Bart Vanhercke
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Since the onset of the Euro crisis in 2009-­‐2010, the EU has introduced a series of far-­‐reaching changes in its institutional architecture for economic and social governance. At the heart of this new architecture is the 'European Semester' of policy coordination, through which the Commission, the Council, and the European Council set priorities for the Union in the Annual Growth Survey (AGS), review National Reform Programmes (NRPs), and issue Country-­‐Specific Recommendations (CSRs) to Member States, backed up in some cases by the possibility of financial sanctions. The European Semester brings together within a single annual policy coordination cycle a wide range of EU governance instruments with different legal bases and sanctioning authority, from the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), and the Fiscal Treaty to the Europe 2020 Strategy and the Integrated Economic and Employment Policy Guidelines. This process in turn has given the EU institutions a more visible and intrusive role than ever before in scrutinizing and guiding national economic, fiscal, and social policies, especially but by no means exclusively within the Eurozone (Costamagna 2013; Chalmers 2012).
Political Geography:
Europe

38931. Albanian Local Government Finance on the Eve of Territorial Consolidation

Author:
Anthony Levitas
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
This paper reviews local government finances in Albania on the eve of the government's plan to decrease the number of municipalities from 373 to 61. The paper argues that without changes in the current intergovernmental finance system, territorial consolidation is unlikely to be accompanied by improved service delivery. This is because Albanian local governments are underfunded and receive less revenue than their counterparts in the region measured both as a percentage of total public revenues and of GDP. The current intergovernmental finance regime is also “over-equalizing” and is depriving the country's larger jurisdictions –particularly Tirana— of the resources they need to build network infrastructure. These problems cannot be resolved by the efficiency gains that should come from consolidation. Nor is better property tax collection fix likely to transform the situation. Instead, the national government needs to provide municipalities with new grants and transfers. One possibility here is to introduce income tax sharing, a reform that would also make it possible to anchor the equalization system in an objective measure of relative wealth. Eventually, income tax shares could be transformed into local surcharges.
Political Geography:
Albania and Tirana

38932. Collective Reputation and the Dynamics of Statistical Discrimination

Author:
Young-Chul Kim and Glenn C. Loury
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Economists have developed theoretical models identifying self-fulfilling expectations as an important source of statistical discrimination practices in labor markets (Arrow, 1973). The static models dominating the literature of statistical discrimination, however, may leave the false impression that a bad equilibrium is as fragile as a "bubble" and can burst at any moment when expectations flip. Such models thus understate the adversity that disadvantaged groups face in seeking to escape bad equilibria. By developing a dynamic version of a statistical discrimination model based on Coate and Loury's (1993) original setup, we clarify the limits of expectations-related fragility. We show that when a group is strongly affected by negative reputational externalities, the group cannot escape a low skill investment trap, regardless of how expectations are formed. By examining the evolution of stereotypes in this way, we also provide new insights into egalitarian policies.

38933. Coping With Success Against ISIS

Author:
James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Washington should have no illusions about resolving the region's wider problems, it can build on early successes against ISIS by making the commitments needed to fully defeat the group in Iraq and Syria, including a modest, enduring U.S. military presence.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, and Syria

38934. The Day after Tomorrow: Colombia's FARC and the End of the Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
As a final peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) nears, negotiators face an elaborate juggling act if they are to lay out a sustainable path for guerrilla fighters to disarm and reintegrate into civilian life. A viable transition architecture not only needs to be credible in the eyes of FARC but must also reassure a society that remains deeply unconvinced of the group's willingness to lay down its arms, cut its links with organised crime and play by the rules of democracy. The failure of disarmament and reintegration would at best delay the implementation of reforms already agreed at the Havana talks since 2012. At worst, it could plunge the entire agreement into a downward spiral of renewed violence and eroding political support. Strong internal and external guarantees are needed to carry the process through a probably tumultuous and volatile period ahead. There is a lot that can go wrong. Most of the 7,000 or so combatants, and three times that number in support networks, are concentrated in peripheral zones with little civilian state presence and infrastructure. Some guerrilla fronts are involved in the drug economy and illegal mining. In most regions FARC operates in proximity to the National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia's second guerrilla group, or other illegal armed groups, exposing its members to security threats and an array of options for rearmament, recruitment and defiance. Major doubts linger about the military's commitment to the peace process, and its readiness to take the steps necessary to end the conflict. Political violence has subsided from the paramilitary heyday but could grow again, and FARC has not forgotten the thousands of killings that decimated the Patriotic Union (UP), a party it created as part of peace talks in the 1980s. And after decades of conflict with a rising civilian toll and negotiation efforts that ended in bitter failure, the parties are feeling their way forward amid deep mutual distrust and strong political opposition. None of these problems has a perfect short-term fix. But the starting position is not all bad. Colombia can tap into three decades of experience in reintegrating members of illegal armed groups and it has more financial and human resources than most post-conflict countries. FARC's command and control structures are in decent shape and guerrilla leaders have a strong interest in a successful transition. The Havana agenda, which alongside the “end of the conflict” includes rural development, political reintegration, transitional justice and the fight against illicit drugs, is, at least on paper, broad enough to embed the reintegration of FARC into a long-term peace-building strategy, particularly focused on the most affected territories. Finally, in sharp contrast to the paramilitary demobilisation, the region and the wider international community are strongly supportive. Negotiators need to agree on a reintegration offer that allows FARC to close ranks behind a transition process riddled with uncertainty and ambiguity. Given its deep-seated distrust toward the state, the best way to achieve this is, probably, to give FARC a stake in reintegration, capitalising on its cohesion. This would minimise the risk that FARC could split over the transition. But the parties must also be aware of and care-fully manage the drawbacks to such a solution. To make a collective reintegration model palatable to a society disinclined to be generous to FARC and sceptical of its true intentions, negotiators should agree on strong measures of accountability, over sight and transparency. They also need to promote local transitional justice to avoid an intensification of communal tensions following the arrival of FARC combatants. Such a long-term reintegration offer would probably facilitate the fraught negotiations over the conditions under which FARC is willing to abandon the conflict early on in the transition. A bilateral ceasefire needs to go into effect immediately after a final accord has been signed. This will require military de-escalation well ahead of that, but a formal ceasefire will only be sustainable once FARC's forces have been concentrated in assembly zones. After the agreement has been ratified, measures for “leaving weapons behind” (or disarmament) should begin. These are irreversible, risky steps, and convincing the guerrillas to take the plunge will not be made easier by the government's refusal to negotiate broader changes to the security forces. But the shared interest in a stable post-conflict period should provide sufficient space to hammer out a workable solution. Alongside security safeguards and interim measures to stabilise territories with FARC presence, this should include early progress in implementing key elements of the peace agreement and the establishment of a joint follow-up committee to ensure that the accords will be honoured after disarmament has been completed. Implementing the agreements will largely be the responsibility of the government and FARC. But in Colombia's sharply polarised environment, international actors will have to play a crucial role. An international, civilian-led mission should be invited to monitor and verify the ceasefire and disarmament. For such monitoring to be successful, the mission needs to have the necessary autonomy from the parties and the technical as well as the political capacity to deal with the predictable setbacks and disputes. Beyond that, international actors should remain engaged by providing high-level implementation guarantees, political support for contentious reforms, including of the security sector, and long-term financial commitment. None of the elements needed to stabilise the immediate post-conflict period is entirely new in the Colombian context, but jointly they will break the mould of previous disarmament and reintegration programs. Flexibility and determination from the negotiators will be needed, alongside renewed government efforts to boost social ownership of the peace process, in particularin conflict regions. Previous transitions have faltered over high levels of violence, public indifference and timid international involvement. A bolder and faster response is needed this time to set Colombia on an irreversible path toward peace.
Political Geography:
Colombia

38935. Effective Governance in Challenging Environments

Author:
Mireille Affa'a Mindzie, George Mukundi Wachira, and Lucy Dunderdale
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The “Africa rising” narrative has gained traction in recent years. Yet a very important question remains: who is rising? While statistics point to a continent whose fortunes have improved, many African citizens remain at the margins of socioeconomic development. In what has been termed growth without transformative development, there is a heightened focus among African states on translating promising statistics into better livelihoods for citizens. Citizens' uprisings in North Africa and in Burkina Faso provide a fresh reminder of the danger in touting impressive economic growth statistics while the majority of a country's population remains excluded from democratic governance processes and development. It is also widely believed that development failures and governance deficits lie “at the heart of Africa's violent conflicts.” Africa will only achieve its full potential and live up to the Africa rising narrative if it can strengthen its systems of governance; promote inclusive, equitable, and participatory development; and embed a culture of democracy and peace.
Political Geography:
Africa and North Africa

38936. The Central African Republic's Hidden Conflict

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Alors que la communauté internationale et le gouvernement de transition ont le re- gard braqué sur la capitale, Bangui, une bonne partie du monde rural, notamment à l'ouest et au centre de la République centrafricaine (RCA), est devenue un terroir de violence. La lutte qui oppose les combattant s de l'ex-Seleka et les milices anti-balaka a conduit à une recrudescence des affrontements entre communautés d'éleveurs et d'agriculteurs depuis 2013. Ces affrontement s forment maintenant un conflit dans le conflit loin des yeux des acteurs internationa ux et du gouvernement de transition et déstabilisent davantage la Centrafrique. A l'aube d'une nouvelle saison de transhu- mance qui risque d'intensifier la guérilla rurale en cours, les acteurs internationaux et le gouvernement de transition doivent impérativement prendre en compte cette dimension de la crise dans leur stratégie de stabilisation et prévenir les risques im- médiats de violence entre communautés d'éleveurs et d'agriculteur

38937. Clarifying the Security Arrangements Debate: Israeli Forces in the Jordan Valley

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S., Israeli, and Palestinian negotiations could lower the heat and shed some light on the clash over Jordan Valley security arrangements by promoting a public debate grounded in the facts of current and prospective Israeli deployments.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Middle East and North America

38938. Implications of a Sisi Presidency

Author:
Adel El-Adawy
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The military chief has some strong assets and likely staying power, but he will still face great pressure if he is elected as anticipated, since the benchmark for success will be his ability to satisfy an Egyptian polity filled with unrealistically high socioeconomic expectations.
Topic:
Regime Change, Reconstruction, Military Affairs, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East

38939. The Ukraine Crisis and the Middle East

Author:
James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Ukraine situation will affect Washington's Middle Eastern priorities, but not to such a degree that it will stymie a strong U.S. response to Russian actions, since America has the power to act in the region without Moscow if necessary. Ukraine could well make it necessary.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

38940. Egypt's Arms Deal with Russia: Potential Strategic Costs

Author:
David Schenker and Eric Trager
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Cairo's possible purchase of advanced weapons systems from Russia could become another irritant in U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Ukraine, Middle East, and Egypt

38941. Turkey's Muted Reaction to the Crimean Crisis

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Issues such as energy dependence, deep-rooted fears of the Russian military, and Black Sea navigation policy all offer clues to Prime Minister Erdogan's vacillating response to Russian activities in Crimea.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

38942. Israel's Governance Law: Raising the Electoral Threshold

Author:
Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Far from disenfranchising certain groups, the pending legislation could spur smaller parties to form new political alliances that would likely favor the center-left opposition in future elections. As the Israeli Knesset prepares to pass a series of electoral reforms under the rubric of a new "Governance Law," one provision has drawn particularly strong criticism: the raising of the threshold required for political parties to obtain seats in the legislature to 3.25% of total votes cast. Media attention has focused on opposition concerns about the measures being "anti-democratic" and potentially disenfranchising Arab Israeli citizens. Yet close analysis of recent electoral results and political realities indicates that the new law could actually help the Israeli center and left.
Topic:
Mass Media, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

38943. The Assad Regime Winning by Inches?

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The regime's recent military successes are by no means sweeping, but its incremental gains in Aleppo and Damascus belie perceptions of stalemate and could shift the war's direction in its favor. The fighting in Syria is frequently described as either a stalemate or a war of attrition -- there are few dramatic movements and no decisive actions, even though both sides repeatedly declare that they are winning and the other side is losing. And some have suggested that there is "no military solution."
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

38944. Jordan's Energy Balancing Act

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A deal to buy Israeli natural gas can help mitigate the kingdom's energy shortage and steer Amman away from problematic nuclear plans, but it risks stirring domestic opposition. In February, two private Jordanian firms signed a contract with a private U.S.-Israeli consortium to import natural gas from Israel's giant Tamar field, located under the bed of the Mediterranean Sea fifty miles offshore from Haifa. The Arab Potash Company and the Jordan Bromine Company -- both partially owned by the Jordanian government -- will pay Houston-based Noble Energy and its partners $500 million over the course of fifteen years to supply a power plant at Jordanian industrial facilities by the Dead Sea. At just $33 million per year, the deal is not financially significant, but it may set a huge precedent in terms of fostering regional economic cooperation and establishing a framework for Jordanian energy security. The political challenges are significant, however, particularly following the March 10 shooting of a Jordanian man at an Israeli-controlled West Bank crossing point.
Topic:
Economics, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

38945. Preventing an Iranian Breakout after a Nuclear Deal

Author:
David Pollock and James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington must urgently reestablish the credibility of its military threat, along with other steps, to guard against noncompliance from Tehran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and North America

38946. Iran's Evolving Maritime Presence

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt and Alon Paz
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The growing capabilities of Iran's navy will enhance the country's soft power and its peacetime reach, while providing an alternative means of supplying the "axis of resistance" if traditional means of civilian transport become untenable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gaza

38947. West Bank Violence and Gaza Rockets Could Spark Wider Conflict

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
There is no guarantee that a peace deal will be reached within the current timeline, but a Palestinian return to armed struggle would be a far greater political, economic, and humanitarian disaster than any short-term frustration with the negotiations. Peace processes are rarely peaceful processes, and the current U.S.-led effort to reach an Israeli-Palestinian "framework agreement" is no exception. As the tempo of negotiations between the main parties picks up speed, more radical actors have reemerged to violently oppose the process, from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and the Popular Resistance Committees, to Salafi jihadist groups, to Marxist factions such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Many observers have focused on the sharp increase in rockets fired at Israel from Gaza in the past few weeks and the prospect of another Gaza war. But that issue, while crucial, has drawn media attention away from two equally troubling trends: the increase in violence across the West Bank, and new signs that some officials from the Palestinian Authority and its leading party, Fatah, may be hedging their bets and preparing for wider violence if the peace process fails.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

38948. Issue May 2014

Author:
Arabinda Acharya
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Assessing extremism requires an understanding of jihadist authority and how it relates to the vanguard role of Al Qaeda. Contrary to conventional thinking, Al Qaeda is not the supreme authority in the hierarchy of Salafi - jihadist doctrine; neither are all significant elements of the jihadist threat, many of which are decentralized, directly associated with Al Qaeda, as is the case with the Islamic State of the Levant (ISIL).
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
United States

38949. Iranian Suspicions About the IAEA

Author:
Steven Ditto
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian elites continue to express skepticism about the International Atomic Energy Agency's verification measures, nuclear safeguards agreements, and impartiality, with some even accusing it of collusion with foreign intelligence agencies.
Topic:
International Organization, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran

38950. Iranian Aid to Fighters in the Gulf Peninsula

Author:
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A number of U.S. interests could be served by expanding support to strategic Gulf partners in their efforts to curb Iranian aid to local fighters. On March 6, Bahrain's foreign minister told the UN Human Rights Council that the ongoing violence in his country "is directly supported by elements of the Islamic Republic of Iran." The statement does not accurately explain all political violence in Bahrain, but not every claim of Iranian support for violence should be assumed to represent part of a government propaganda campaign. U.S. intelligence assesses that Iran is in fact providing arms and more to Bahraini and other fighters in the Arabian Peninsula, and Washington should increase support to important Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners to curb it.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and United Nations

38951. Egypt's New Military Brass

Author:
Gilad Wenig
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A closer look at how the supreme military council will operate now that Field Marshal Sisi has thrown his hat into the presidential ring, including a chart illustrating the SCAF's likely new membership. Today, following months of speculation, Field Marshal Abdul Fatah al-Sisi announced his resignation as Egypt's defense minister and his candidacy for president. Sedki Sobhi, former chief of staff under Sisi, has been promoted to colonel general -- one rank below field marshal -- and appointed as the new defense minister, while Mahmoud Hegazy, former director of military intelligence, has been promoted to lieutenant general and will be the new army chief of staff. The resultant restructuring of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) will likely put some of Sisi's closest allies in key positions and should provide him with a strong base of military support and influence once he wins the presidency as expected.
Topic:
Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

38952. Nuclear Kingdom: Saudi Arabia's Atomic Ambitions

Author:
Simon Henderson and Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although Iran's nuclear potential will likely dominate talks between President Obama and King Abdullah on March 29, Riyadh's own nuclear plans should also be part of the discussion. A major probable consequence of Iran achieving a nuclear weapons capability is that Saudi Arabia will seek to match it. With President Obama currently rating the chances of diplomatic success as 50-50 and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei giving a "zero" probability, this weekend's U.S.-Saudi summit will be an opportunity to check whether Saudi planning can help the diplomacy rather than hinder it.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

38953. U.S. Strategic Dialogues with Morocco and Algeria: Take Two

Author:
Vish Sakthivel
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary Kerry's visit comes amid Morocco's efforts to expand its regional influence and an upcoming vote in Algeria. Next week, Secretary of State John Kerry will head to Rabat and Algiers to reconvene the Strategic Dialogues that were postponed in November when he had to travel to Geneva for urgent Iran negotiations. While the broader themes to be discussed remain the same, certain developments in the two countries' diplomatic positioning will likewise inform the talks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Morocco

38954. Tunisia's Democratic Transition: From Contention to Consensus?

Author:
Habib Sayah
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As Tunisia's Islamists reaffirm their cohesiveness, the country's contentious politics have worn out many voters and dulled their interest in democratic participation, making abstention the most likely winner of this year's elections. Last week, 39,000 members of Tunisia's leading Islamist faction, Ennahda, took part in an internal referendum to decide whether to postpone their next national congress, where a new party executive board is typically chosen. More than 70 percent of the members agreed to maintain the party's cohesiveness in order to focus on winning the next round of legislative elections rather than risk exposing internal divisions. In contrast, the various parties in the secular opposition remain disorganized and divided by their ambitions -- months after helping to pressure the Ennahda-led governing coalition out of office and agreeing to a transitional roadmap, they are unable to unite, whether against their Islamist adversary or around a common political project. More important, Islamists and secularists alike face an uphill battle in convincing increasingly skeptical Tunisian voters that they are serious about addressing the country's social, economic, and security concerns instead of squabbling with each other.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Power Politics, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Egypt and Tunisia

38955. Palestinian Public Opinion Offers Abbas Much Room for Maneuver

Author:
David Pollock
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A closer look at Palestinian views on prisoner releases, the Jewish state question, economic needs, and other issues suggests diplomatic openings are far from exhausted. As the United States works to salvage the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the Palestinian public in the West Bank and Gaza is more prepared to accept various diplomatic compromises than official positions or elite attitudes would suggest. A number of new polls by different Palestinian pollsters, and in-depth discussions with Palestinian scholars and others in late March, indicate that Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has greater latitude to make a deal than is often supposed. The polls cited here are from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) and Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD), both based in Ramallah, and the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO), based in Bethlehem.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America

38956. U.S. Policy and the Israeli-Palestinian Impasse, Part II: Assessment and Prospects

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The current impasse in Israeli-Palestinian talks is buffeted by a series of profound global and regional challenges, including Ukraine, Iran, and Syria, among others. In the immediate arena, while Israel and the Palestinian Authority may have dysfunctional political and diplomatic relations, they also have reasonably effective security cooperation and economic coordination. Therefore, a principal challenge for U.S. policy and for local leaders is to find ways to preserve, even enhance, the latter even as disagreement over the former worsens.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and North America

38957. Iran Seeks to Untangle UN Sanctions

Author:
Steven Ditto
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Islamic Republic has added to its nuclear negotiating team a law professor who has extensive experience making Iran's case in international disputes. On April 9, Iran and the P5+1 (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the United States, plus Germany) concluded the latest two-day round of talks on a nuclear deal, setting the next round for May 13. Earlier in the week, on April 7, Iranian media reported the appointment of Dr. Jamshid Momtaz as head of a "legal advisory group" to the Iranian negotiating team. A French-educated expert on sanctions, disarmament, and UN procedure, Momtaz has represented the Iranian government in some of its highest-profile international legal proceedings, including in claims against the U.S. government at the Hague-based International Court of Justice (ICJ). Momtaz's familiarity with the United Nations, his extensive practice in Europe, and his proven history of leveraging complex legal arguments to advance Iran's international interests indicate that in these latest rounds of P5+1 talks Tehran is likely looking for unconventional ways to "address" and "bring a satisfactory conclusion to" the UN Security Council resolutions against it, as called for in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) agreed to in Geneva last November.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iran, and France

38958. Israeli Financial Measures Against the Palestinian Authority

Author:
Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel has gotten few positive results from past financial measures against the PA, and both sides risk miscalculation and escalation when they employ unilateral tactics. On April 1, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas signed accession papers to fifteen international conventions, endangering the current round of peace talks and spurring the Israeli government to state that unilateral Palestinian steps would be met by unilateral steps of its own. Over the past several days, Israel has made good on this promise, instituting various economic and financial sanctions against the PA. Yet recent historical experience indicates that Israel's willingness to maintain punitive financial sanctions on the PA is limited.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Israel and Palestine

38959. The U.S. Role in Iraq's Postelection Politics

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington has rightfully avoided backing a candidate in next week's elections, but it should still use counterterrorism assistance and other levers to push Baghdad on pluralism and KRG oil revenue sharing during the presumably lengthy transition period. On April 30, the Iraqi public will vote in national parliamentary elections, establishing the next four-year term of the 328-seat Council of Representatives. Thereafter, an equally consequential bargaining process will commence, taking the formation of the next government out of the public's hands and cloistering it behind closed doors. The United States has repeatedly prodded Baghdad to ensure that the vote is held on time, in all districts, and in a free and fair manner. Washington's role in the government formation process could be equally constructive, but it presents a far trickier challenge. Indeed, how the U.S. government acts during the postelection process could set the tone for bilateral relations throughout the next government's term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Washington and Middle East

38960. The Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Agreement: Too Early to Judge

Author:
Ehud Yaari and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Even as the deal offers short-term political benefits for both sides, it fails to resolve key issues separating them. The April 23 Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement announced in the Gaza Strip is the latest in a long line of attempts to bridge the intra-Palestinian divide. The timing of the agreement amid U.S.-brokered peace talks, as well as both parties' internal weaknesses, points to more serious intent than past efforts. However, the deal fails to address the most sensitive issues separating the two sides and likely can be explained by the political boost it offers to both leaderships. The only certainty is that the reconciliation deal severely complicates efforts to extend Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations past their April 29 deadline.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

38961. Rebels Worth Supporting: Syria's Harakat Hazm

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A close look at the group's military and ideological credentials seems to reveal a model candidate for greater U.S. and allied support, including lethal military assistance. In mid-April, web videos began to surface showing Syrian rebel unit Harakat Hazm (Steadfastness Movement) employing U.S.-designed antitank guided missiles in Idlib province. The use of these TOW (tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided) missiles indicates that the United States and/or one of its TOW-equipped allies have provided lethal aid to the group. Videos of two other groups with TOWs have appeared, but Harakat Hazm seems to have received the most, or at least posted the most videos of them in action. Harakat Hazm has many qualities that make it a good candidate for such assistance. It appears secular in orientation, is well organized from a military perspective, has a significant inventory of heavy weapons, operates across an important area of Syria, and has an established combat record in fighting Bashar al-Assad's regime. In short, the group seems to provide at least a partial answer to longstanding questions about which rebel groups Washington should arm.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
United States, Syria, and North America

38962. Lebanon's Presidential Race

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The thorny parliamentary process of selecting a new president could rekindle violence if it results in substantial delays or further sectarian friction. Last week, Lebanon's parliament convened for the first round of balloting to elect a new president. While Samir Geagea -- who leads the Christian "Lebanese Forces" party, which is aligned with the pro-Western March 14 coalition -- received the most votes, he failed to secure the requisite two-thirds parliamentary support. In the coming weeks, legislators are slated to continue meeting until a president is selected. Unlike last week's session, in which the Hezbollah-led March 8 bloc did not challenge Geagea's candidacy, the voting promises to become increasingly contentious in subsequent rounds. Perennial sectarian tensions exacerbated by the war next door in Syria have complicated the historically wrought and arcane election process. Should a compromise candidate not emerge by May 25, the term of current president Michel Suleiman will expire, leaving the post vacant. In the past, the presidency -- which by law must be held by a Christian -- was the dominant office in Lebanon's government. But the 1989 Taif Accord effectively stripped the position of its powers, delegating them to the prime minister, who must hail from the Sunni Muslim constituency. Given the post's largely symbolic nature, some might argue that the tense selection process is much ado about nothing. Yet the presidency remains an emotionally evocative issue for Lebanese Christians, and both the March 8 and March 14 blocs see a sympathetic chief executive as an important advantage worth fighting for.
Topic:
Religion, Power Politics, Regime Change, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

38963. Islamists in Government: Do They Moderate Once in Power?

Author:
Haroon Ullah, Eric Trager, and Vish Sakthivel
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A senior State Department advisor and two Washington Institute scholars discuss what lessons can -- and cannot -- be drawn from the Islamist political experience in Egypt, Pakistan, Morocco, and other countries.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Morocco

38964. The Terrorist Funding Disconnect with Qatar and Kuwait

Author:
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there. On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar

38965. Salafi Jihadists on the Rise in Jordan

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The longer the war in Syria continues, the greater the threat these fighters will likely pose. Last week, ten Jordanian Islamists who were apprehended while attempting to join the jihad in Syria were sentenced by the State Security Court to five years of hard labor. And last month, Jordanian F-16 fighter jets destroyed a convoy purportedly carrying al-Qaeda-affiliated anti-Assad-regime rebels traversing the border from Syria. These "spillover" incidents are only the latest in a disturbing trend. Over the past year, reports of Jordanian Salafi jihadists have become routine, raising the specter of terrorism returning to the kingdom.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Jordan

38966. Israel vs. al-Qaeda: Emerging Challenges on Two Fronts

Author:
Ehud Yaari and Michael Morell
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A CIA veteran and an Israeli security expert discuss the growing presence of al-Qaeda affiliates in Sinai and Syria.
Topic:
Terrorism, International Security, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

38967. Shabab al-Tawhid: The Rebranding of Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia?

Author:
Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Security crackdowns will not be enough to eradicate jihadist networks in Tunisia and Libya, which have the patience and ideological conviction to weather drastic reorganization. Eight months ago, the Tunisian government officially designated Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia (AST) as a terrorist organization. Since then, Tunis has cracked down on the group's activities, going after both its dawa campaign (i.e., proselytization and social-welfare efforts) and any links members have to terrorist plots. On the whole, AST's public response has been to keep relatively quiet. Yet recent developments indicate that the group may be rebranding itself as Shabab al-Tawhid (ST; the Youth of Pure Monotheism), a shift that would have important implications for efforts to counter Tunisian jihadists and their associates in Libya.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Arabia, and Tunisia

38968. Decision Time on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: U.S. Strategy Hits a Critical Juncture

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As narratives about the root causes of the impasse in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations take shape, U.S. leaders have a major decision to make about whether to disengage from diplomacy or deepen involvement in less high-profile ways.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

38969. The Battle for Southern Syria Heating Up

Author:
Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recent developments indicate a credible, previously unseen rebel threat to Damascus. While rebel militias have lately suffered serious setbacks in central and northern Syria, they are now recording significant successes in the south -- the region lying between Damascus and the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's loyalists are on the defensive on all related fronts, risking the loss of this strategically important sector. It is becoming increasingly evident that a rebel push toward the capital from the south may be more promising militarily than an offensive from the so-far-stalemated front lines north of Damascus. The next few weeks may witness further major rebel gains on the southern front, which may ultimately pose the main threat to Assad's control.
Topic:
Terrorism and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

38970. The Riddle of Succession in the Palestinian Authority

Author:
Ehud Yaari
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A cloud of uncertainty hangs over the road to Palestinian succession, and potential candidates will likely have to form ad hoc alliances that result in significant policy compromises on peacemaking and other issues.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Palestine and Arabia

38971. Morocco's Approach to Countering Violent Extremism

Author:
Mohamed Salah Tamek
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Morocco has had a largely successful record of countering violent extremism within its borders, including the dismantling of numerous cells linked to al-Qaeda core or its North African offshoot, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Thousands of suspects have been arrested for perpetrating assassinations, assaults, and robberies; huge caches of heavy weapons have been confiscated; and authorities have foiled many attempts to attack security services, tourist attractions, diplomatic delegations, and places of worship for Christians and Jews. In addition, two channels of recruitment for jihadists in Mali were dismantled in late 2012, and two months ago, Moroccan and Spanish security forces jointly dismantled a transnational cell recruiting fighters for Syria and Mali.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Syria, Morocco, and Northern Mali

38972. Iran and Bahrain: Crying Wolf, or Wolf at the Door?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Bahraini government will need to distinguish better between protestors and terrorists if it wants Washington and other foreign partners to believe its claims of Iranian support for local militants. On May 5, in what has become an increasingly typical event in Bahrain, several individuals threw Molotov cocktails at a police post in a Shiite village, damaging storefronts but causing no casualties. Such incidents have intensified over the past few months in villages surrounding the capital, Manama -- in March, three police officers were killed by a bombing in al-Daih; last month, an explosion wounded another officer in the same village; days later, a police car was firebombed in Hamad Town.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Violence, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Bahrain

38973. Libya's Growing Risk of Civil War

Author:
Andrew Engel
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Long-simmering tensions between non-Islamist and Islamist forces have boiled over into military actions centered around Benghazi and Tripoli, entrenching the country's rival alliances and bringing them ever closer to civil war. On May 16, former Libyan army general Khalifa Haftar launched "Operation Dignity of Libya" in Benghazi, aiming to "cleanse the city of terrorists." The move came three months after he announced the overthrow of the government but failed to act on his proclamation. Since Friday, however, army units loyal to Haftar have actively defied armed forces chief of staff Maj. Gen. Salem al-Obeidi, who called the operation "a coup." And on Monday, sympathetic forces based in Zintan extended the operation to Tripoli. These and other developments are edging the country closer to civil war, complicating U.S. efforts to stabilize post-Qadhafi Libya.
Topic:
Political Violence, Religion, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Libya, and Tripoli

38974. Conditionality and Compliance: The Shaky Dimensions of NATO Influence (The Georgian Case)

Author:
Shalva Dzebisashvili
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
It is no secret that NATO exerts global influence, and is an organization without which the international security architecture would be difficult to imagine. Its capacity to exert influence ranges from the very material dimension of military power to the elusive and intangible effects of functional professionalization. Its unifying power was recognized long before the fall of the Berlin Wall, motivating Karl Deutsch to assign to it the quality of the "Community" in the North Atlantic area. The paradigm of the Cold War heavily influenced the way scholarship evaluated the Alliance. Despite numerous and valuable attempts, the majority of academic contributions to the study of NATO remained policy-driven. The discussion was subsumed by broader regional security studies and international relations scholarship that repeatedly brought up the question of the Alliance's organizational purpose and durability, leaving other significant questions unexamined. This article will attempt to address the existing scholarly deficit by focusing on a particular aspect of NATO analysis: the Alliance's capacity to influence aspirant countries' policy making (formulation and implementation) in the defense area and, by doing that, to ensure compliance with commonly agreed norms and standards.
Topic:
NATO and Cold War
Political Geography:
North Atlantic, Georgia, and Berlin

38975. Solving the Syrian Knot: Dynamics within the UN Security Council and Challenges to its Effectiveness

Author:
Esmira Jafarova
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
This article intends to highlight the dynamics within the UN Security Council 1 (UNSC) with regard to the events in the Syrian Arab Republic that have unfolded in the wake of the so-called "Arab Spring" and perturbed the entire region of the Middle East. What had begun as peaceful demonstrations against the incumbent leadership of the country very quickly transformed into the violent conflict that has raged for about three years. As a primary world body fulfilling the watchdog functions over the protection of international peace and security, the UNSC was overwhelmed by the highly dynamic nature of the situation on the ground, and was embroiled in intensive deliberations on the ways to solve the Syrian crisis.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

38976. The Waning Grand Strategy of Democratization: Why a Pivot to the Asia-Pacific Places the United States at Greater Risk of Terrorist Attack

Author:
David Tier
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Our world is on a trajectory leading to a point where terrorists will eventually acquire a nuclear weapon. It is only a matter of time. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States recognized the lack of effectiveness of its previous intelligence and military efforts in deterring terrorists and sought an alternate way to defuse the radical Islamist threat. By continuing to advocate the use of military force in Iraq after weapons of mass destruction were not found, the U.S. pursued a strategy in line with the idealist school of thought by attempting to plant a democracy in the heart of the Middle East. Iraq became the centerpiece of the United States' ambitions to stop the region from exporting violence and terror, and attempted to transform it into a place of progress and peace. This effort was ambitious indeed, and many argued that these goals were be- yond the United States' ability to achieve. However, this strategy offered a possible solution to the endless cycle of violence across the Middle East and Africa and its continuing threat to U.S. national security. The current administration, in contrast, announced last year a "rebalance toward the Asia -Pacific region," ostensibly to counter the growing strength of China's military power. Like an ostrich sticking its head in the sand, this shift pivots the U.S. away from its true threat and increases the peril its citizens will face. The United States should focus its efforts on supporting democratization in troubled regions, and policy makers must counter those who criticize this strategy, including military-industrial complex advocates of the "pivot."
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and Mumbai

38978. The Future of the Sinai Peninsula

Author:
Ruben Tuitel
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The Sinai Peninsula has been a center of conflict for many years, starting with the first Arab-Israeli war in 1948. After Israel and Egypt signed the Camp David Accords in 1978, it became a peaceful region, strongly controlled by the military during Hosni Mubarak's rule in Cairo. Now, after several years of non-violence, the Sinai Peninsula is once again the center of a complicated conflict. Heavy protests across Egypt in 2011 forced Hosni Mubarak to step down from the presidency, creating a security vacuum in the Sinai that allowed radical Islamists to almost freely operate in the region. During the months that followed, insurgent groups grew in number, recruiting frustrated Bedouin who have been neglected by the Egyptian government for years.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Islam
Political Geography:
Israel, Arabia, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

38979. The Models of Sovereignty in the South Caucasus

Author:
Gayane Novikova
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Over the last five to six years we have witnessed dramatic changes in the international security environment-changes that have directly influenced developments in the South Caucasus. Among the most significant changes are the world economic crisis, the Arab awakening, and the turbulence and civil wars all over North Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

38980. Afghanistan 2001-2014: The Enduring Literature?

Author:
Peter Foot
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Do we have a problem with book publishers? Are we getting a reliable supply of material covering the ongoing war in Afghanistan — this far -too -long, post -9/11 conflict? That there are lots of books is not in doubt —but do they help chart a course for the future? Do they locate the conflict in ways that assist in defining its uniqueness from, or its commonality with, other experiences of violence? How might the available published work assist in the post -2014 phase of Afghanistan's development and the necessary engagement of the international community —define that as you will —in that country's future? The best of them appeared around 2011: ten years too late for decision makers, the result of a decade of reflection for the rest of us.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

38981. Guns, Money and Prayers: AQIM's Blueprint for Securing Control of Northern Mali

Author:
Morten Bøås
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
AL-QA`IDA IN THE ISLAMIC Maghreb (AQIM) is occasionally described as an operational branch of the global al-Qa`ida structure. Yet AQIM should not be viewed as an external al-Qa`ida force operating in the Sahel and Sahara. For years, AQIM and its offshoots have pursued strategies of integration in the region based on a sophisticated reading of the local context. AQIM and its offshoots leverage money, guns and prayers to establish their presence in poorly governed areas in the Sahel and the Sahara. Their use of religion is of particular importance in an area where the local governing administration, to the degree that it exists, is generally perceived by the domestic population as corrupt, whereas AQIM and affiliated Islamist militants present themselves as honest and pious Muslims. This is especially the case in northern Mali.
Political Geography:
Northern Mali

38982. The Future Role of U.S. Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

Author:
Michael A. Sheehan and Geoff D. Porter
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
IN HIS STATE OF THE UNION on January 28, 2014, President Barack Obama's speech focused on domestic issues, but singled out Africa, specifically mentioning Somalia and Mali, in reference to the evolution of the al-Qa`ida threat, the emergence of al-Qa`ida affiliates and the need for the United States to continue to work with partners to disrupt and disable these networks.
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

38983. Venezuela: Tipping Point

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence has exacerbated an already tense political situation in Venezuela and made finding a solution both more urgent and more complex. Nationwide unrest, following deaths at a protest called by student leaders and a sector of the opposition on 12 February, sparked a political crisis that involved Venezuela's neighbours in efforts to find a negotiated settlement. By early May it had cost around 40 lives and led to scores of human rights violations. Failure to end the violence through negotiations has hindered the task of resolving serious social and economic problems. It has also damaged the credibility of regional institutions. To reverse the crisis and turn this tipping point into an opportunity, both parties must commit to a political dialogue based on the constitution; the government must abide by its human rights commitments and restore the rule of law and the separation of powers; the international community must provide both sides with guarantees, technical assistance and political impetus.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

38984. Maritime Hotlines in East Asia

Author:
Euan Graham
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
"Hotline" communication channels or Direct Communication Links (DCLs) have the potential to serve limited but important crisis management and confidence-building functions in East Asia's increasingly tense maritime security environment. Their primary purpose is to provide a secure communications channel between national command authorities for clarifying intentions in near real time in order to prevent unintended military conflict, especially where territory is actively in dispute. This has clear policy relevance given East Asia's maritime geography, the existence of overlapping sovereignty and boundary claims, and the rising tide of incidents at sea and in the airspace above. This pertains not only to armed forces but extends to paramilitary and civilian law enforcement vessels and aircraft.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sovereignty, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
East Asia and Southeast Asia

38985. Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View

Author:
Andrew Monaghan and Keir Giles
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. Although key principles remain unresolved, such as what precisely constitutes an armed attack or use of force in cyberspace, overall there is a broad legal consensus among Euro-Atlantic nations that existing international law and international commitments are sufficient to regulate cyber conflict.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and North America

38986. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Azeem Ibrahim
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIS]) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

38987. Asymmetric strategic problems in nuclear nonproliferation

Author:
Tongfi Kim
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
This article explains cooperation problems between powerful democratic states and weak non-democratic states in the context of nuclear non- proliferation. Focusing on the interactions of the United States with North Korea, Iran, and Libya, it suggests that power asymmetry and information asymmetry foster mutual distrust by exacerbating two main strategic obstacles to cooperation: the time inconsistency of the stronger state's policy and the incomplete information regarding the non-democratic states. The nature of negotiations over nuclear weapons programs further exacerbates these problems. The overall implications of this article leave us pessimistic about the possibility of negotiated nuclear dis-armament, but the theoretical analysis may help the negotiation strategy of the United States.
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, and North Korea

38988. The changing architecture of politics in the Asia-Pacific: Australia's middle power moment?

Author:
Mark Beeson and Richard Higgott
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Middle power theory is enjoying a modest renaissance. For all its possible limitations, middle power theory offers a potentially useful framework for thinking about the behavior of, and options open, to key states in the Asia-Pacific such as South Korea, Japan and Australia, states that are secondary rather than primary players. We argue that middle powers have the potential to successfully implement 'games of skill', especially at moments of international transition. Frequently, however, middle powers choose not to exercise their potential influence because of extant alliance commitments and the priority accorded to security questions. We sub-stantiate these claims through an examination of the Australian case. Australian policymakers have made much of the potential role middle powers might play, but they have frequently failed to develop an independent foreign policy position because of pre-existing alliance commitments. We suggest that if the 'middle power moment' is to amount to more than rhetoric, opportunities must be acted upon.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

38989. Testing the creativity of Kevin Rudd's middle power diplomacy: EU–Australia partnership framework versus the Asia-Pacific community

Author:
Gürol Baba and Taylan Özgür Kaya
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
The 2007 Australian Parliamentary Elections brought a new dynamic to Australia's foreign policy: the Kevin Rudd factor. The Prime Minister sought to develop a more proactive and multi-faceted foreign policy around 'Creative Middle Power Diplomacy'. This study aims to cast light on the dynamism in Australia's Foreign Policy with Kevin Rudd within the framework of middle power activism. The research firstly focuses on the difficulties of defining and classifying middle powers through which it will put forward specific ' commonalities' for successful middle power foreign policy outcomes. The study of the EU–Australia Partnership Framework and the Asia-Pacific Community proposals–both of which were priorities for Kevin Rudd–reveal the potential and limits of middle power activism. This study argues that in today ' s world, middle powers have growing potential to pursue specific foreign policy goals but their ability to achieve these goals is constrained by Great Powers ' interests and consent, and also by the nature or ' commonalities' of middle power diplomatic practice.
Political Geography:
Asia, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

38990. Balance of payments and power: assessing China's global and regional interdependence relationship

Author:
Ian Tsung-yen Chen
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Global economic imbalance leads to change in the global distribution of economic resources. While some foresee the inevitable decline of US power, others consider China's forthcoming global primacy to be an exaggeration. This paper seeks to contribute to the debate by linking balance of payments (BOP) to power analysis. Dimensions of BOP are connected to Keohane and Nye's two ideal-types of interdependence relationship: realist and complex interdependence. The former relates to the global distribution of aggregate economic resources; the latter emphasizes a detailed investigation of distinct interdependence situations between countries. China's BOP from 1997 to 2012 is assessed through the lens of both ideal-type scenarios. The findings show that China's growing power manifests principally in its rising status as a major global buyer in primary goods and its growing military strength in the region. However, China is confronted with possible slowdown in wealth accumulation and its lagging technological development. At present, the speculation of China's upcoming global primacy may be exaggerated, but its dominant position in the region is indeed on the rise.
Political Geography:
United States and China

38991. Winning over foreign domestic support for use of force: power of diplomatic and operational multilateralism

Author:
Atsushi Tago and Maki Ikeda
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
The United States uses two forms of multilateralism to increase levels of foreign public support for military action: diplomatic multilateralism and operational multilateralism. Diplomatic multilateralism is typically done by obtaining a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing military action. The use of multinational forces, the so-called coalition of the willing and many flags program, is an example of operational multilateralism. While scholars have empirical evidence that diplomatic multilateralism generates foreign domestic support for the use of force, there is no equivalent study for operational multilateralism. We do not know if or how much the two types of multilateralism would differ in inducing foreign domestic support for military action. This article, by using Japan as a field of survey experiment, answers these questions.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

38992. Imperial Eclipse: Japan's Strategic Thinking about Continental Asia before August 1945

Author:
Frederick R. Dickinson
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
As Yukiko Koshiro appropriately notes at the outset of her striking new study, the Asia-Pacific component of World War II comes with many labels, each associated with particular audiences. 'Pacific War' is the preferred term for most Americans, who focus on the fight between Japanese and American forces in the Pacific. 'Fifteen Years' War' is used by Japanese Marxists to describe a much longer series of battles begun on the Asian continent in 1931 and expanding to wider destruction through 1945. 'Greater East Asia War' is the label of choice of the Japanese right, which continues to imagine a battle for' liberation' of Asian peoples from Western imperialism.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

38993. China Goes Global: The Partial Power

Author:
Ming Wan
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
China has gone global, but most China experts in the American academic community have gone local, moving in the opposite direction. As Shambaugh has observed rightly, 'big picture' books on China in the United States have been written by virtually anyone but China scholars. A crucial reason for this academic trend is the current obsession with theories and methods in the social sciences departments, which has changed the incentive structure for scholars who compete for employment, promotion, recognition, and funding. Moreover, given the increasingly complex nature of China's greater presence in the world on so many dimensions, it is also the case that a new generation of scholars trained to be specialized in narrow research topics would arguably find it difficult to write a big book even if they want to. As guilty as many others, this reviewer also encourages his own students to follow a narrow path out of fear that they would otherwise be placed at a competitive disadvantage even though he shares the same concern with Shambaugh.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

38994. From the Editor, Spring 2014

Author:
Craig Biddle
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
Welcome to the Spring 2014 issue of The Objective Standard, which begins our ninth year of publication. I want first and foremost to extend an enormous “thank you” to all of our subscribers, donors, and writers, whose material, moral, and intellectual support made our first eight years possible and laid the groundwork for what is to come. Without your initial and sustained support, TOS simply would not exist. With your support, this hub of Objectivist intellectual output is not merely existing, but thriving, expanding, and reaching more and more minds with the ideas on which human life and civilized society depend. From all of us at TOS: Thank you. Now, on to the contents at hand.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East

38995. A Peek at Thinking in Principles: The Science of Selfishness

Author:
Craig Biddle
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
Author's note: The following are the introduction and first chapter of my forthcoming book, Thinking in Principles: The Science of Selfishness. The book, which will be published this December, is aimed primarily at active-minded young adults who have some familiarity with the principles of rational egoism. Its purpose is to elucidate the importance and method of thinking in principles. I hope you enjoy these early pages. —CB Introduction Your basic tool for making your life the best it can be is your mind. Your basic skill toward that end is your ability to think—to identify and integrate facts, to understand the world and your needs, to choose life-serving values and goals, to plan your days and years for maximum happiness, and to execute your plans effectively. The quality of every aspect of your life—from your career to romance to friendships to recreation to leisure time—depends on how well you think. How can you maximize your thinking skills? What are the principles of good thinking? How can you embrace and apply those principles to fill your life with values, projects, and people you love? The answers to these and related questions are the subject of this book. Whereas my first book, Loving Life: The Morality of Self-Interest and the Facts that Support It, demonstrates that being moral consists in being selfish, Thinking in Principles: The Science of Selfishness shows what being selfish means in the realm of cognition. It is about how most effectively to use your mind in service of your life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness. You need not have read Loving Life in order to profit from reading this book, but reading either Loving Life or Ayn Rand's The Virtue of Selfishness before reading this book will better equip you to understand and integrate the ideas discussed herein. This book, of necessity, assumes a certain level of agreement about what is true and false, moral and immoral, right and wrong. For instance, it assumes recognition of the fact that reason (i.e., observation and logic) is your only means of knowledge, that neither feelings nor revelation nor faith is a means of knowledge. It assumes some understanding of the propriety of pursuing your own life-serving values and of the impropriety of sacrificing for others, society, or “God.” And it assumes some understanding of the morality of a social system that protects each individual's rights to live by the judgment of his own mind and to keep the product of his effort—and of the immorality of social systems that violate these rights. A reader with no knowledge of such truths will have trouble focusing on the subject at hand—the principles of thinking in principles—because he will constantly be challenged by the content and evaluations of various principles being used as concretes for discussion. We couldn't begin to discuss a science of good thinking for good living without assuming a basic understanding of what good thinking and good living consist of, and these ideas are part of such an understanding. If they are foreign to you, I suggest reading one of the above-mentioned books before proceeding. The purpose of this book is to examine the nature and need of principles; to identify and elucidate the principles of the method of thinking in terms of principles; and to integrate those principles into a systematic, scientific approach to living and loving life. Chapter 1, “What Principles Are and Why You Need Them,” discusses the nature of principles, surveys various kinds of principles, draws crucial definitions of “principle” from the survey, and shows the vital role of principles in thinking. The next six chapters identify and elucidate the principles of thinking in principles and examine various errors and fallacies that are violations of these principles. Chapter 2, “Axioms, Corollaries, and Proximate Fundamentals,” examines the principles at the very base of all thinking; shows their relationship to other principles that underlie and govern various areas of life (e.g., romance, business, recreation, parenting); considers some major aspects of the process of forming and validating principles; and briefly addresses the crusade against principles (i.e., anti-foundationalism and pragmatism). Chapter 3, “The Excluded Middle and Matters of Degree,” zeros in on the crucial role of the law of excluded middle in identifying and applying principles; addresses misconceptions of and objections to the law; clarifies the proper use of the law with respect to mixed ideas, mixed situations, and “slippery slopes”; and demonstrates the binary, either-or nature of principled thinking. Chapter 4, “Proper Classification and Definition,” surveys the basic principles of Ayn Rand's theory of concepts; shows the proper formation and use of concepts to be at once governed by principles and essential to principled thinking; examines several kinds of violations of the principles presented, including package deals, anti-concepts, and frozen abstractions; and shows why you must form and use concepts in certain ways and not others if they are to serve your life and happiness. Chapter 5, “Hierarchies of Knowledge and Values,” examines the hierarchical structures and interrelationships of conceptual knowledge, moral principles, and personal values; examines the fallacy of the stolen concept, further demonstrating why you must use concepts properly if they are to serve your life; and shows how to organize your values hierarchically and use the “math of egoism” to dramatically improve your thinking, decision making, and all-around effectiveness in pursuing and achieving your goals. Chapter 6, “Context, Knowledge, and Values,” expands on the principles of hierarchy, examining the broader relational nature of concepts, principles, and values; shows why and how these three elements properly fit together to form an integrated, noncontradictory whole in service of your life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness; and examines the fallacies of context dropping, omission of volition, and the argument from intimidation. Chapter 7, “Evidence, Knowledge, and Happiness,” examines the nature of evidence (both perceptual and conceptual); demonstrates the crucial role evidence plays in thinking, forming principles, applying them, and choosing and pursuing values; and shows the highly destructive nature of arbitrary (evidence-free) assertions, which throttle and thwart thinking in myriad nonobvious ways. Chapter 8, “The Science of Selfishness,” pulls together all of the foregoing principles, demonstrating their unity as an observation-based, integrated, life-serving system of thought; shows how this system applies to specific situations and goals; and shows how to use the principles of the system to create highly effective personalized micro-principles and standing orders to guide specific day-to-day actions, enabling you to achieve massively challenging life-enhancing goals. Chapter 9, “The Art of Selfishness,” shows how the fully formed science of selfishness applies to a broad array of real-life and hypothetical situations, from personal to social to political, demonstrating its immense power to clarify your thinking, simplify your decision making, and fill your days and years with values, projects, and people you love. If that interests you, let's dig in. Chapter One: What Principles Are and Why You Need Them “I don't have any principles. If I believe in anything, I believe in rules of thumb,” boasts an outspoken college professor. “Therefore, as I say quite often (and it's true) my forward time span is generally two hours. By that I mean I tend not to think about or worry about anything more in the future than two hours hence.”3 If this professor's claim were true, he would not be able to function as a human being. Granted, if he didn't think about anything more in the future than two hours hence he wouldn't need principles or have any to speak of. But, then, he wouldn't have a life to speak of either. Consider just a few reasons. . . .
Topic:
Politics

38996. Aristotle Versus Religion

Author:
Andrew Bernstein
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
Careful observation of history reveals two dramatically different approaches to life on earth. In one approach, we see Islamic jihadists perpetrating murderous terrorist assaults around the world, virtually daily. The attack on 9/11 is the worst Islamist atrocity to date, but many have followed, including a recent attack at a shopping mall in Nairobi, in which Islamists murdered scores of people and wounded hundreds more. Similarly, we see Christians, throughout a full millennium during which they held unchallenged cultural and political power, relentlessly hunting down and slaughtering untold thousands for the “crime” of disagreeing with religious orthodoxy. And we see Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists, and Sikhs on the Indian subcontinent engaging in a seething inferno of violence in which millions have been slain. In the other approach, we see something utterly different. We see Copernicus, Darwin, and Einstein advancing revolutionary theories in astronomy, biology, and physics. We see Edison, Bell, and the Wright brothers pioneering life-promoting inventions. We see writers from Homer to Ayn Rand dramatizing the heroism and greatness possible to individuals committed to man's earthly existence. Here, then, are two different visions of human life: one driven by faith, the other by reason—one religious, the other secular—one irrational, often violently so; the other, rational, often brilliantly so. Most of Western history has been a struggle between these two contrasting philosophies. Religious mysticism—in this instance, proceeding from ancient Judaism—is a pernicious force in human life. Rational secularism—the creation and legacy of ancient Greek culture—is vital to proper human life. By observing Judaism, Christianity, and Islam relative to the ideas of the ancient Greeks, we can see that the essentially secular approach of Greek culture—especially the rational method Aristotle developed—is responsible for golden ages and renaissances, both in the West and in the Middle East; and that the faith-based approach of religion, when intellectually dominant, is responsible for cultural stagnation and dark ages. A clear understanding of the nature of these opposing forces—and of the struggle between them—is essential to the preservation of civilization. An essentialized survey should start at the beginning. The Greeks Give Birth to Western Civilization What did the Greeks contribute to human life? As the eminent historian Will Durant wrote, “there is hardly anything secular in our culture that does not come from Greece. Schools, gymnasiums, arithmetic, geometry, history . . . physics, biology . . . poetry, music, tragedy, comedy, philosophy . . . ethics, politics, idealism, philanthropy . . . democracy: these are all Greek words for cultural forms . . . in many cases first matured . . . by the abounding energy of the Greeks.” Philosophy is the fundamental value that men inherited from the Greeks, for it seeks to answer life's most important questions: What is the nature of the universe? How do men gain knowledge? What is human nature? What is the good? What is a good society? Philosophy attempts to give rational rather than mythic or faith-based answers to such questions. . . .
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East

38997. Review: Free Market Economics

Author:
Richard M. Salsman
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
Free Market Economics: An Introduction for the General Reader, by Steven Kates. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011. 352 pp. $50 (paperback). Not since 1924 has there been a comprehensive yet readable book on economics aimed at the ordinary but intelligent citizen that defends and incorporates the field's foundational principle, Say's Law (named after Jean-Baptiste Say, 1767–1832) and its main corollaries: the primacy of production, the entrepreneur as prime mover, and prices as the commercial language that coordinates economies and their subsectors. Now we have such a book: Free Market Economics: An Introduction for the General Reader by Australian business economist Steven Kates. His prior books examined the prevalence of Say's Law among top economists during the pro-capitalist 19th century and its abandonment by most economists in the anti-capitalist 20th century. The handful of texts on economic principles since the 1920s that recognize the superiority of a free economy have been too technical, narrowly devoted to refuting economic fallacies, or tainted by dubious philosophy. This book avoids such flaws. Kates accomplishes what was last achieved by Oxford professor Henry Clay (1883–1945) in Economics: An Introduction for the General Reader (1924). Better still, Kates's book offers a modern, more sophisticated, more pro-capitalist treatment than did Clay's book, and it provides the ideas people need to grasp and refute the disastrous dogmas and policies of Keynesianism. At the core of this book is Say's Law, the principle that supply constitutes demand, that one cannot demand (or purchase) anything in any market without first producing an economic value for offer (or, in a monetary economy, without first earning spendable income by producing value). This principle recognizes that markets are made by the producers and that the most economically important producer of all is the entrepreneur, who specializes in soliciting and coordinating the other main factors of production: land (including raw materials), labor, capital, and financing. Say's Law condenses the truth that material prosperity is attained not by consuming (using up) wealth, but by saving, investing, and producing wealth. Unlike most textbooks today, Kates's says economics should explain wealth creation, or “net added value,” not how we ration “scarce resources.” Keynesianism, Kates explains, explicitly rejects Say's Law and asserts that a free market is prone to “failures” and crises, to excessive production, deficient consumption, and depressions; it further insists that government deficit spending, money printing, and near-zero interest rates can fix said market failures. Keynesian policies assume, contra Say's Law, that there can be an aggregate, economy-wide excess of abundance, or deficiency of aggregate demand. Say's Law holds that aggregate supply and aggregate demand are the same thing viewed from different perspectives and thus cannot be unequal; recessions entail reduced production and typically (but not always) are caused by government policies that are antithetical to production and profits. In contrast to Keynesianism, Say's Law, properly understood, tells economists (and citizens) to reject the contradictory claim that a contracting economy reflects an overexpanding economy, that somehow poverty is caused by prosperity, and it recommends the rejection or removal of any policies that impede or depress the incentive or capacity of entrepreneurs to create wealth or employ other factors of production. According to Kates, Say's Law “is the essence of market-based economics”; and “without the clarity that [it] brings, economic theory has lost its moorings and the irreplaceable value of leaving things to the market in directing economic activity cannot be understood” (p. 6). Yet, the classical, Say-based theory of the business cycle and public policy “has the ability to penetrate the darkness left by Keynesian theory in understanding the causes of recessions and the steps that are needed to bring recovery about” (p. 7). . . .
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Law
Political Geography:
Australia

38998. Review: Responsibility Luck

Author:
Ari Armstrong
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
Responsibility Luck: A Defense of Praise and Blame, by Diana Hsieh. Sedalia, CO: Philosophy in Action, 2013. 214 pp. $19.99 (paperback). Imagine people in three different scenarios: . Abe and Bill both get blinding drunk at a bar, leave at the same time, and drive home at the same rate of speed. Both run a (different) red light at the same time on the way home. By bad luck, a single mother with her two children is driving through the intersection along Abe's course, and Abe rams his car into hers, killing her and her two children. Bill, on the other hand, makes it home without injuring anyone. . Alan and Betty walk along different piers at the same lake. Both are equally brave, but Betty sees a drowning boy in the lake and dives in and saves him. Alan does not see anyone in distress. . Adriana and Benjamin are born in very different circumstances. Adriana's parents are wealthy, and she grows up with a good education and many opportunities to improve herself. She becomes a successful neurosurgeon. Benjamin's parents neglect and abuse him and teach him how to steal for them. He becomes an armed robber who winds up in prison. Why do we blame or praise one individual in each scenario more, given that so much of what they do and what they accomplish depends on luck? Why do we send Abe to prison and sing Betty's praises, but not do the same for their counterparts? Such issues are the subject of Diana Hsieh's book, Responsibility Luck: A Defense of Praise and Blame. As Hsieh makes clear, one's answers to questions about moral responsibility radically affect one's approach to moral judgment, to criminal justice, and to political policy. Decisions made in the criminal justice system depend substantially on moral judgments. Hsieh opens her book with the example of a Colorado man who, in 2005, while driving drunk at speeds exceeding one hundred miles per hour, struck and killed another driver. The judge, noting that the man had previously injured someone else while driving drunk and that he had dropped out of an alcohol rehabilitation program, sentenced him “to the maximum penalty of twelve years in prison.” Hsieh points out, “According to ordinary moral and legal standards of culpability, [the man] deserved to be blamed and punished for his reckless driving” (p. 1). Yet, according to certain theories with which Hsieh contends in her book, the man was instead himself “a victim of bad luck” (p. 2). Moral judgments also play a key role in public policy. To draw on an earlier example, if a neurosurgeon is not fundamentally responsible for her success, then how can she deserve her large income? Why should she not be taxed in order to subsidize someone working in fast food? Indeed, if no one deserves his financial successes or failures—if such success or failure is fundamentally a matter of luck (in Barack Obama's terms, “you didn't build that”)—then it would seem that the best system is “an egalitarian political order” (p. 9). . . .
Topic:
Education

38999. Review: The Conscience of the Constitution

Author:
Slade Mendenhall
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Objective Standard
Institution:
The Objective Standard
Abstract:
The Conscience of the Constitution: The Declaration of Independence and the Right to Liberty, by Timothy Sandefur. Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2014. 200 pp. $24.95 (hardcover). While the principles of liberty on which America was founded are under attack from so-called liberals and conservatives alike, and while expanding abuses of government power are too vast and complex for most Americans to fully follow, books by rational, knowledgeable professionals clearly and concisely explaining the problems and offering solutions are of immense value. Timothy Sandefur's The Conscience of the Constitution: The Declaration of Independence and the Right to Liberty fits this bill. Sandefur, a principal attorney at the Pacific Legal Foundation and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, bases his latest work on an underappreciated idea in American legal thinking. It is the idea that the Declaration of Independence—understood as a formal, legal, diplomatic document issued by the representatives of thirteen British colonies to the king of England—is part of the law of the land, just as are the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. In fact, argues Sandefur, the Declaration used to be seen as the “conscience of the Constitution,” and reviving this understanding of its position in the framework of U.S. law will go a long way toward establishing the moral and political context within which lawyers, judges, and Supreme Court justices should argue and interpret constitutional law. Sandefur's thesis is controversial and is not likely to be well received in modern courts and law classrooms. Most law schools teach students to view the Declaration as a mere manifesto or letter of aspiration. But Sandefur wages a compelling intellectual defense of the Declaration-as-law on two fronts: against leftists, who have ridiculously claimed that the document was drafted as a wink-and-nod effort by elite white men to put down minorities and the lower classes; and against conservatives such as Russell Kirk and neoconservatives such as Irving Kristol who, afraid of its “natural rights” language, dismiss the ideas of the Declaration and characterize it as an underhanded “ploy to lure the French” into conflict with the English (p. 14). Sandefur, pointing out the baseless nature of such criticisms, puts forth a strong argument for holding the Declaration as law and highlights the Founding Fathers' own understanding of it as such. . . .
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
America, Washington, and England

39000. Lebanon's Hizbollah Turns Eastward to Syria

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Lebanese Shiite armed movement Hizbollah has gone all-in for Syrian President Bashar Assad. It has shown it will back his regime by any means necessary, despite doubts about its capacity to win a decisive victory and regardless of the risks to the movement's own moral standing and cross-sectarian appeal. As it is drawn ever-deeper into its neighbour's civil war that seems poised to endure for years, it finds itself increasingly distracted from its original anti-Israel focus and risking a profound reshaping of its identity.
Topic:
Political Violence, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria