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39561. Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

Author:
Cullen S. Hendrix
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947–2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, Oil, and History

39562. Does Clientelism Work? A Test os Guessability in India

Author:
Mark Schneider
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Local brokers are thought to possess fine-grained information on voters' political preferences, material needs, and even social preferences. Research on clientelism assumes that brokers meet the most basic informational requirement of knowing voters' partisan preferences, if not their votes. This assumption drives theoretical predictions on the types of voters politicians should target with selective benefits, and whether or not a quid pro quo exchange of benefits-for-votes is an efficient electoral strategy relative to programmatic distribution. Nonetheless, existing scholarship does not test this assumption and analysis of variation in brokers' ability to identify voters' partisan preferences has not been conducted. To test this assumption, this paper develops a behavioral measure – guessability – based on whether or not village council presidents in Rajasthan, India correctly guess the partisan preferences of voters sampled from their local areas. I find guessability to be lower than existing theory and low-information benchmarks expect. Local leaders can identify the partisan preferences of voters who are most guessable either because they belong to core partisan ethnic groups or because they are integrated into their local co-partisan networks. However, they perform poorly at identifying those whose partisan preferences are uncertain and require monitoring to reveal. This has consequences for the targeting strategies parties and politicians pursue.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Political Theory, and Sociology
Political Geography:
India and Rajasthan

39563. The State of REDD+ Finance

Author:
Marigold Norman and Smita Nakhooda
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper presents a thorough synthesis of available data to illuminate the current global state of finance for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). It adds to a growing body of work that seeks to understand the size and composition of finance for REDD+ initiatives, as well as the delivery of climate finance more generally. The analysis shows that aggregate pledges of both public and private finance are significant, at more than US $8.7 billion for the period between 2006 and March 2014, but the pace of new pledges slowed after 2010. The public sector contributes nearly 90% of reported REDD+ finance, with the preponderance of funding concentrated among a relatively small number of donors and recipient countries. The paper analyzes early experience with performance-based finance, although such finance represents less than two-fifths of pledges to date. The extent to which new institutions in the climate finance architecture such as the Green Climate Fund will provide a new and effective channel for increasing support for REDD+ remains to be seen.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Cooperation, and Politics

39564. Self-Selection into Credit Markets: Evidence from Agriculture in Mali

Author:
Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, Christopher Udry, and Lori Beaman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
We partnered with a micro-lender in Mali to randomize credit offers at the village level. Then, in no-loan control villages, we gave cash grants to randomly selected households. These grants led to higher agricultural investments and profits, thus showing that liquidity constraints bind with respect to agricultural investment. In loan-villages, we gave grants to a random subset of farmers who (endogenously) did not borrow. These farmers have lower – in fact zero – marginal returns to the grants. Thus we find important heterogeneity in returns to investment and strong evidence that farmers with higher marginal returns to investment self-select into lending programs.
Topic:
Agriculture and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

39565. Pathways to Security Council Reform

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nora Gordon
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In this paper, New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC) seeks to explore potential pathways to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reform. We begin with an overview of the current context, which has been characterized by increasing international pressure for Security Council reform. The Council's abysmal performance in the Syrian crisis has fueled the mounting pressure for reform, which includes the French proposal to limit use of the veto and Saudi Arabia's rejection of a non-permanent seat. We then offer a brief history and analysis of previous reform attempts; an explanation of global perspectives on the issue of UNSC reform; background on the Intergovernmental Negotiations (IGN) on UNSC reform in New York; and an analysis of discussions on reform in and around the African Union.
Topic:
Security, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
Africa, New York, and Saudi Arabia

39566. Rethinking Afghan Local Governance Aid After Transition

Author:
Frances Z. Brown
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conclusion of the U.S.-led "surge" of 2009 onward and the closure of provincial recon¬struction teams and other local civil-military installations have affected how aid is delivered in Afghanistan's more remote and contested areas. The time is ripe for a recalibration of donor approaches to local governance and development in areas previously targeted by the surge. Specifically, foreign stakeholders should reexamine three central principles of their previous subnational governance strategy. First, donors should revise their conception of assisting service delivery from the previous approach, which often emphasized providing maximal inputs in a fragmented way, to a more restrained vision that stresses predictability and reliability and acknowledges the interlinked nature of politics, justice, and sectoral services in the eyes of the local population. Second, donors should reframe their goal of establishing linkages between the Afghan govern¬ment and population by acknowledging that the main obstacles to improving center-periph¬ery communication and execution are often political and structural rather than technical. Third, donors should revise the way they define, discuss, and measure local governance prog¬ress in contested areas, away from favoring snapshots of inputs and perceptions and toward capturing longer-term changes on the ground in processes, structures, and incentives. The coming political and development aid transition provides an overdue opportunity for Afghan governance priorities to come to the fore. At the same time, the ever growing chasm between Kabul's deliberations on the one hand and local governance as experienced in more remote, insurgency-wracked areas on the other presents renewed risks. In the short term, donors let the air out of the aid bubble carefully. In the long term, resolving Afghanistan's local governance challenges continues to demand sustained commitment and systematic execution.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

39567. 2013-2014 Global Resources Report: Philanthropic and Government Support for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Intersex Communities

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
GPP and Funders for LGBTQ Issues have partnered to release a new Global LGBTI Resources Report, the most comprehensive report to date on the state of foundation and government funding for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and intersex (LGBTI) issues. This first-of-its-kind report captures data on 9,632 grants awarded by 415 foundations and intermediaries and by 16 government and multilateral agencies over the two-year period of 2013-2014. The report provides detailed data on LGBTI funding distribution by geography, issue, strategy, and population focus, offering a baseline for identifying trends, gaps, and opportunities in the rapidly changing landscape of LGBTI funding.
Topic:
Government, LGBT+, and Philanthropy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39568. The US Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad

Author:
Jon Wolfsthal
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) convened an event to release its latest report “The Trillion Dollar Nuclear Triad: US Strategic Nuclear Modernization Over the Next Thirty Years.” The report concludes that the United States will likely spend over $1 trillion during the next three decades to maintain its current nuclear arsenal and purchase their replacement systems. The necessary level of procurement spending, as a percentage of the defense budget, will peak at levels comparable to the Reagan-era build-up of nuclear forces. To date, few senior officials from the White House or Department of Defense or in the Congress have publicly acknowledged or laid out the full scale of these costs to the American public. This lack of public debate will likely lead to sticker shock as the full cost of these programs come due, leading to budget cuts and program delays. “The strategic and financial challenges facing our country are enormous,” said Jon Wolfsthal, CNS Deputy Director and former nuclear advisor to Vice President Joseph Biden. “Policy makers lack the basic information needed to make smart choices about our nuclear arsenal, putting both our deterrent and future reductions at risk.” The report cites particular concern over the pace of planned construction of strategic systems to replace systems that are set to retire starting in 2030. The United States plans, from 2024-29, to build five strategic submarines, 72 strategic bombers, and 240 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). This represents more delivery vehicles than the combined nuclear forces of China, the United Kingdom, and France. It is unclear that the industrial and management capabilities in the United States are capable of this production rate in times of budget constraint.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, Budget, and Military Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

39569. New Media Solutions in Nonproliferation and Arms Control: Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Bryan Lee
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
CNS has released a ground breaking new report investigating the role new and social media can play in tracking nonproliferation and verifying arms control. The paper lays out how these new technologies have the potential to significantly enhance current practices in the field of nonproliferation and arms control. They stress, however, that it is critical to approach anything that is so new and fluid with caution and flexibility as technologies that might be effective today for solving a particular nonproliferation or arms control problem might not work or require a major redesign in the future. The paper contains four detailed examples that show how new media can be applied to the nonproliferation challenge. They include: 1) election mapping; 2) Github; 3) real time commercial satellite image analysis; and 4) a Twitter text mining analysis. The findings demonstrate emerging technologies and procedures that can enhance the ability of countries or organizations or even individuals to identify when weapons of mass destruction are being built or used, or in ensuring that countries live up to their international treaty obligations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Media, Social Media, and Nonproliferation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39570. US and Russia Can End Use of Weapons-Usable Uranium for Medical Uses

Author:
Miles A. Pomper
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
A new report co-authored by CNS Senior Research Associate Miles Pomper recommends steps for the United States and Russia to cooperate in ending Russian use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) in medical isotope production, an important step in keeping this nuclear weapons material from terrorists. Great progress has been achieved in recent years in minimizing civilian use of HEU as part of the international efforts to reduce the nuclear terrorism threat. In particular, the leading global suppliers of the molybdenum-99 (Mo-99) isotope, which is widely used in medical diagnostics, are taking steps to reduce and, in the medium time frame, completely eliminate the use of HEU in the production of medical isotopes. Major new steps towards phasing out HEU use in medical isotopes production could be announced at the Nuclear Security Summit that will take place in The Hague on March 24-25, 2014. The Russian nuclear industry has set for itself an ambitious goal of becoming one of the three top global suppliers of Mo-99, used in 80 per cent of the medical procedures involving isotopes particularly as a diagnostic tool. Growing Russian production could help stabilize the global Mo-99 market, which faced severe shortages on several occasions in 2005-2013. According to some estimates, in 2010 during a six month period medical facilities around the world were unable to perform diagnostic procedures for several million people due to the shortage of Mo-99; the shortfall was estimated at 7 million doses. However, until recently, Russia had been bucking global trends by planning to use HEU fuels and targets rather than safer low enriched uranium (LEU) for much of this production. The ‘Ending HEU Use in Medical Isotope Production: Options for Russian-US Cooperation’ report co-authored by the Moscow-based Center for Energy for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) analyses what can be done by Moscow and Washington to harmonize the Russian producers’ plans to win a share of the global market, while at the same time facilitating the Russian nuclear industry’s transition to new market requirements for producing Mo-99 without HEU.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

39571. Alternatives to High-Risk Radiological Sources

Author:
Miles A. Pomper, Egle Murauskaite, and Tom Coppen
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
There is growing global awareness of the need to secure radiological sources in order to prevent terrorists from using such materials in a radiological weapon, such as a “dirty bomb.” A new CNS report calls for a move towards permanently reducing this threat by substituting non-isotopic alternatives for these sources in civil uses. As an initial step, the authors propose a move towards gradual phase-out of cesium chloride use in pre-transfusion blood irradiation on a global scale – a domain where non-isotopic alternatives are considered to be the most viable in the short-term. They urge United States to launch an international initiative involving the phase out of cesium-chloride and other high-risk radiological sources as a “gift basket” for the upcoming 2014 Nuclear Security Summit. Cesium chloride is one of the most commonly used radiological materials, despite being an IAEA Category 1 “extremely dangerous” source. Because cesium chloride is easily dispersible, water soluble, and relatively easy to handle, it is particularly suitable for terrorist purposes. The blood irradiators that use it as a source are located in many large hospitals and blood banks (inherently publicly accessible spaces), and the source is usually transported through regular civilian infrastructure at the beginning and the end of its lifecycle, giving more cause for concern. Cesium chloride based irradiators are used to treat blood and blood products prior to transfusion in order to prevent a rare but fatal Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD). A growing number of non-isotopic alternatives are becoming available for that purpose, but there is a serious lack of awareness about the range of options and how they compare to current practices, both among the medical professionals and national regulators.
Topic:
Health, Biological Weapons, Radiological Weapons, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39572. Mind the Gap: Regimes & Strengthening Radiological Security

Author:
Miles A. Pomper
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
According to a new paper from CNS Senior Research Associate Miles A. Pomper, inadequate liability and insurance regimes mean that users of high-risk radiological sources have insufficient incentive to protect those sources from terrorists or substitute less risky alternatives. Such sources are used in medicine, oil and gas exploration, and industry, among other fields, and can be used in “dirty bombs” or other forms of radiological terrorism. Since the 9/11 attacks, governments, including the United States, have taken it upon themselves to institute emergency measures to improve source security, often using public funds. However, these measures are less than optimal and are expected to take many more decades. Moreover, even the United States—the lead country in spending on these efforts—routinely sacrifices radiological security to other budget priorities. Pomper therefore recommends two potential options to improve liability and insurance regimes governing radiological sources in order to incentivize users to reduce the risk of radiological terrorism.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Budget, Radiological Weapons, and Medicine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

39573. Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems

Author:
Leonard Spector
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
A comprehensive Center for Nonproliferation Studies report calls on the United States and other concerned countries to adopt tighter controls to stem the flow of nuclear-related goods to Iran, North Korea, and other states of proliferation concern. Even modest improvements across the spectrum of today’s nuclear technology controls could greatly strengthen overall international efforts to constrain illicit nuclear procurement networks, the study found. The now available report, Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems, was prepared by Leonard S. Spector and Egle Murauskaite. The study was supported by the US Department of Defense.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Illegal Trade
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea

39574. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Fall 2014

Author:
David Zvijac, Jason J. Morrissette, Douglas A. Borer, and Brian J. Ellison
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
In Marine Corps Vision & Strategy 2025, the 34th Commandant of the Marine Corps, General James T. Conway, laid out his vision of the Corps: “Marines must be agile, capable of transitioning seamlessly between fighting, training, advising, and assisting—or performing all of these tasks simultaneously. . . . Future operational environments will place a premium on agile expeditionary forces, able to act with unprecedented speed and versatility in austere conditions against a wide range of adversaries.” Just as the nature of warfare has changed over time, so too has our need to assess future operations and the ever-evolving environment in which our forces must act.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Water, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, South Asia, Korea, and United States of America

39575. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2014

Author:
Vernie Liebl, Alessandra Pinna, Aylin Ünver Noi, and Gayane Novikova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
U.S. armed forces must react and interact in a variety of situations, proving the importance of not just experience but also of an educational foundation that supports today’s military, one confronting tighter budgets and a constricted force structure, utilizing greater technology, and facing increased ambiguity and international crises. Professional military education means more than fostering leadership in our best and brightest. Our goal at Marine Corps University is to serve as a dynamic institution capable of educating joint and combined forces to handle the complex realities of the twenty-first century. Several of these current realities, as well as past incidents that influence the present, are the focus of this issue of the Marine Corps University Journal. United States has extended the American idea of democracy so far afield that its reach can be felt across the globe. ere are those who argue that we have stretched our resources and our forces beyond their limits, while others claim that our interactions with other cultures enrich both domestic and foreign populations. As evidenced by situations such as the Bizerte Incident in Tunisia and the Arab Spring, we still have much to learn from our global interactions today and in the not-so-distant past.
Topic:
Democratization, History, Military Affairs, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America

39576. Thinking About Return Migration to Africa: Theories, Praxes, General Tendencies & African Particularities

Author:
Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
The simplest definition of return migration construes it as the move back from a place of sojourn to a place of origin by a migrant who then settles down. But return could be temporary or permanent. It could be volitional or compelled. There could also be secondary and repeat migration. Regardless of the contemporary worldwide concern about the meanings, implications, significance and consequences of return migration, return migration is yet to be subjected to as much scholarly research as other aspects of the migration phenomenon. Eborka in this volume rightfully points out that the gap in scholarly knowledge on this subject is even more profound in the case of Africa, and there is a dearth of statistics, as Essien, Setrana and Tonah indicate. Through her analysis of Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s Americanah, Idowu-Faith also alerts us to the theoretical contributions of literary exploration of migration and especially return migration. This volume on return migration to Africa therefore contributes to discourses and research on the subject and in doing so, also contributes significantly to filling the gap in scholarly knowledge.
Topic:
Migration and Literature
Political Geography:
Africa

39577. Fictionalizing Theory, Theorizing Fiction: The Stylistics of Return Migration in Chimamanda Adichie's Americanah

Author:
Bimbola Oluwafunlola Idowu-Faith
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This paper is a stylistic investigation of Americanah (2013) Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s latest novel. Whereas Americanah is the melting pot where love and romance collide and comingle with hair politics and the shifting meanings of skin color, Adichie employs migration as the window through which these issues are projected. Beyond Adichie’s juxtaposition of binary migratory terms of “Americanah” and “American” and her protagonist’s choice of the former, the novelist’s preoccupation is to critically engage international migration theories, and to chart a new migration story, where return migration is the quintessential closure.
Topic:
Migration, International Affairs, Literature, and Novels
Political Geography:
Africa

39578. "Afie ni Afie" (Home is Home): Revisiting Reverse Trans-Antlantic Journeys to Ghana and the Paradox Return

Author:
Kwame Essien
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This article traces different waves of reverse migrations to the Gold Coast, now Ghana, which began in the early nineteenth century. The article explores external motivations for pursuing these journeys and factors internal to Ghanaian history that facilitated reverse migrations. Both contributed to the contradictions of return and the paradox of freedom or the illusion that their physical presence in Ghana would fulfil their fantasy. Part of the article chronicles the stories of individuals, family groups, and the transatlantic communities they created: Brazilian-Africans (Tabom), Caribbean Africans and American-Africans. The article focuses on themes of slavery, emancipation, abolition, reverse migrations and Pan-African activities in Ghana. This article maintains that literature on reverse migrations should extend beyond the narrow focus of the New World back to Africa. I assert that there are other reverse migratory paths from West Africa to Brazil (after liberated Brazilian-Africans settled in Africa in the early 1800s) and between Nigeria and Ghana that have been overlooked by scholars in their study of reverse migrations to Ghana and West Africa in general. In the end, this article shows similarities in reverse migrations and shared cultural kinship as members of the returnee communities in Lagos-Nigeria (the Aguda) and Accra-Ghana (the Tabom) crisscrossed the West African Atlantic and created various identities.
Topic:
Migration, Slavery, and Literature
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Ghana

39579. Diary of an American Woman: First Part of a Three-Part Story Called This Africa in my Dream

Author:
Chinyere G. Okafor
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
The Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) was adopted in Nigeria after unsustainable foreign indebtedness caused grave economic crisis, which spun off political and social turmoil. Its adoption in 1986 by the Babangida military regime, was pushed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), as the only viable solution to Nigeria’s problems. Rather than provide relief, the adoption of SAP imposed extreme neoliberal austerity policies that pushed many middle class families into poverty, causing some to migrate both within the country and abroad. “Diary of an American Woman” is the story of three characters, Ola, Love, and Fakar. The story presents an account of three migrations: internal migration within Nigeria, external migration to America, and patrilocal movement from parental to marital abodes. Ola keeps a journal about her immigrant experience in America, which unfortunately is lost with her luggage in Nigeria. Fakar discovers the journal in his workplace and begins to read it. Ola’s immigrant experience in America as recalled in her diary reveals the underbelly of life of a Nigerian in America to the hotel janitor.
Topic:
Debt, International Political Economy, World Bank, Military Affairs, Literature, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

39580. Return Migrants and the Challenge of Reintegration: The Case of Returnees to Kumasi, Ghana

Author:
Mary Boatemaa Setrana and Steve Tonah
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
This paper describes the nature of migrants’ return to Kumasi, Ghana’s second largest city, and the strategies employed by the returnees to establish links with their relatives and friends, as well reintegrate into their neighbourhoods, and participate fully in city life. Using interviews and observations carried out among 30 return migrants and some migrant associations, the paper concludes that return migration is a negotiated process among family members. Migrants face several challenges including finding accommodation and jobs, establishing contacts with former colleagues and friends, meeting the high expectations of extended family members, and adjusting to the poor infrastructural facilities in the city. Return migrants are able to surmount these difficulties with support from family members, friends, colleagues, and a host of social organizations and networks.
Topic:
Migration, Urban, and Social Groups
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana