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39341. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
Topic:
Democratization
Political Geography:
Arabia

39342. South Sudan: Jonglei—"We Have Always Been at War"

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Jonglei state's combustible mix of armed political opposition, violent ethnic militias and dysfunctional political system were part of the tinder that led to the eruption of the civil war in South Sudan in late December 2013. Despite eleven months of peace talks, mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the war threatens to reintensify in the coming weeks. The negotiations do not reflect the diversity of armed groups and interests in South Sudan and the region, most of which are nominally allied with either President Salva Kiir's government or former Vice President Riek Machar's Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/ A-IO). The constellation of regional and South Sudanese armed groups in Jonglei is emblematic of the regional, national and local challenges to peace and the pattern of a war that cannot be resolved by engaging only two of the nearly two-dozen armed groups in the country and ignoring those that have not yet engaged in the fight.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Sudan

39343. In the Shadow of the Storm: Getting recovery right one year after typhoon Haiyan

Author:
Alison Kent
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
For many who survived typhoon Haiyan's brutal winds and deadly storm surge, their struggles continue one year later . As recovery efforts progress , a critical opportunity exists to ensure that these communities have the chance not only to rebuild their lives but to strengthen their resilience – to future disasters as well as to poverty.
Political Geography:
Philippines

39344. Can't Afford to Wait: Why Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation plans in Asia are still failing millions of people

Author:
Steph Cousins
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climate-related disasters and food crises are devastating thousands of lives and holding back development across Asia. A year on from the devastating super-typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Oxfam calls for governments across Asia, backed by regional and global institutions and fair contributions from wealthy countries, to ramp up efforts to address these challenges. Without greater investment in climate and disaster-resilient development and more effective assistance for those at risk, super-typhoon Haiyan-scale disasters could fast become the norm, not the exception.
Topic:
Climate Change, Disaster Relief, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

39345. Behind Closed Doors: The risk of denying women a voice in determining Afghanistan's future

Author:
Elizabeth Cameron and Jorrit Kamminga
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As the Taliban regime fell in 2001 after six years of abuse and oppression, the international community made a promise to the women of Afghanistan, that it would never again abandon them. The protection of their rights, at least in part, became a key element to afterwards legitimize the war which followed. It is 13 years since Colin Powell, then- US Secretary of State, declared that, 'the rights of the women in Afghanistan will not be negotiable.' Now Afghan women are questioning what the future holds.
Topic:
Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

39346. Breaking the Standoff: Post-2020 climate finance in the Paris agreement

Author:
Tim Gore, Simon Bradshaw, Annaka Carvalho, Kiri Hanks, and Jan Kowalzig
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Negotiations are currently under way to develop a new international climate change agreement that will cover all countries and curb global warming to below the internationally agreed limit of 2 degrees. The new agreement will be adopted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference – Conference of the Parties 21, or COP21 – to be held in Paris in November/December 2015, and will be implemented from 2020.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, and Environment

39347. Impacto De La Roya Del Café

Author:
Alberto Vargas
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Muchas de las comunidades de El Salvador tienen una baja resiliencia (su capacidad de enfrentar y recuperarse de los efectos de los desastres es muy limitada). Existen comunidades que a causa del cambio climático están enfrentando diversos eventos cada uno o dos años.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Human Welfare, and Food
Political Geography:
South America

39349. Ebola and the Private Sector: Bolstering the response and West African economies

Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is unprecedented. The increasing number of cases, the poor health infrastructure, the shortage of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding the disease are proving a huge challenge to affected governments and to the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Health, Human Welfare, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

39350. A Long Way to Go: The Ebola response in West Africa at the sixty day mark

Author:
Debbie Hillier and Krista Riddley
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The international response to the Ebola epidemic is on the right path, but there is a long way to go. The UN's interim objective was to treat 70 percent of cases and to ensure that 70 percent of burials were done safely within 60 days, i.e. by 1 December 2014. Case numbers are stabilizing in Liberia and Guinea, but remain out of control in Sierra Leone – such that the targets for cases treated has not been met. The UN has not provided figures for what had been achieved by 1 December, but a previous sitrep on 21 November showed that only 13 percent of Ebola cases in Sierra Leone have been isolated, compared with 72 percent in Guinea.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Human Welfare, Infectious Diseases, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

39351. Quarantines in Sierra Leone: Putting people first in the Ebola crisis

Author:
Wairimu Munyinyi Wahome
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In May 2014, initial reports were received of the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. One month later, the president of Sierra Leone declared a public health state of emergency in a bid to contain the spread, limiting public gatherings. Since then, quarantine measures have been imposed, including self-quarantines informed by district and chiefdom bye-laws and government-imposed quarantines. In November 2014, standard operational procedures (SOPs) on the management of quarantines were released by the National Ebola Response Coordination (NERC) function to streamline quarantine operations across the country.
Topic:
Infectious Diseases and Health Care Policy

39352. Steps Towards a Living Wage in Global Supply Chains

Author:
Rachel Wilshaw
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Almost a century after the ILO Constitution recognized the need for workers to earn a living wage, the question of whether wages enable workers to meet their needs and those of their families has gained renewed momentum. Much has been written on the issue, but very little that assesses how companies are implementing it, and the outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Labor Issues

39353. Seven Million Lives Saved: Under-5 Mortality Since the Launch of the Millennium Development Goals

Author:
John McArthur
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
To what extent have developing countries' patterns in reducing under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) changed since the advent of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)? This paper investigates that question across multiple time horizons, with attention to the fact that countries' progress had already begun to accelerate during the late 1990s compared to the early 1990s. The paper gives special consideration to countries the MDGs were primarily intended to support, including initially “Off Track” and low-income countries. Although only 21 percent of originally Off Track countries and 34 percent of originally low-income countries are now on a path to achieve the MDG target by 2015, at least 80 percent of each group has seen accelerated progress since 2001. Approximately 90 percent of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have accelerated. Most importantly, regression analysis indicates that cross-country trends since 2000 differ considerably from previous decades. The years since the launch of the MDGs include the first extended period in at least four decades during which rates of U5MR decline have not been negatively correlated with U5MR levels. Compared to a conservative counterfactual trend from 1996 to 2001, at least 7.5 million additional children's lives are estimated to have been saved between 2002 and 2013. The results suggest that much of the greatest structural progress has been achieved by countries not likely to achieve the formal MDG targets, even if their progress might be linked to the pursuit of those targets. Implications are considered for setting U5MR targets through to 2030.
Topic:
Development, Health, Human Welfare, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:
Africa

39354. Fertilizing Growth: Agricultural Inputs and Their Effects in Economic Development

Author:
John McArthur and Gordon C. McCord
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper uses cross-country panel data to estimate the agronomic inputs that lead to cereal yield improvements and the consequences for developing countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. It then estimates empirical links in developing economies between increased agricultural yields and economic growth; in particular, the spillover effect from yield growth to declines of labor share in agriculture and increases of non-agricultural value added per capita. The identification strategy for the effect of fertilizer includes a novel instrumental variable that exploits variation in global fertilizer price, interacted with the inverse distance between each country's agriculturally weighted centroid and the nearest nitrogen fertilizer production facility. Results suggest that a half ton increase in staple yields (equal to the within-country standard deviation) generates a 13 to 20 percent higher GDP per capita, a 3.3 to 3.9 percentage point lower labor share in agriculture five years later, and approximately 20 percent higher non-agricultural value added per worker a decade later. The results suggest a strong role for agricultural productivity as a driver of structural change.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Labor Issues

39355. Happy Neighbors Are Good For You, Wealthy Ones Are Not: Some Insights From a First Study of Well-Being in Mongolia

Author:
Carol Graham, Tuugi Chuluun, and Sarandavaa Myanganbuu
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We conducted the first extensive study of well-being in Mongolia, a country that has experienced a dramatic transition in both its economy and polity in recent decades. We found that most of the standard determinants of well-being were no different in Mongolia than they are for most countries in the world, with individual income, health, marital status and exercise all positively associated with life satisfaction; the same variables had positive but weaker correlations with our hedonic well-being measure. As in many other contexts, we found that, controlling for individual income, average community income was negatively correlated with life satisfaction, although not with hedonic well-being. This is not surprising, as comparison effects are more likely to influence overall life evaluations than they are daily (or weekly) moods and experience. In contrast, average community-level well-being—in both evaluative and hedonic dimensions—was positively associated with individual well-being. While being around wealthier people may generate envy among some, being around happier people has positive externalities (except, perhaps, for the very unhappy). Thus, at least in Mongolia, wealthier neighbors are not necessarily g ood for you, but happier ones surely are.
Topic:
Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Mongolia

39356. Adjusting Assistance to the 21st Century: A Revised Agenda for Foreign Assistance Reform

Author:
George Ingram
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A decade of reform of U.S. development assistance programs has brought significant and important improvement in the nature and delivery of U.S. assistance. But the 21st century world is witnessing constant change in development. More developing countries are ascending to middle income status and gaining the capability, resources, and desire to finance and direct their own development. The rapid expansion of private capital flows, remittances, and domestic resources has significantly reduced the relative role of donor assistance in financing development. Donors are becoming more numerous and varied. There is growing recognition that the private sector, both nationally and internationally, is an indispensable component of sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States

39357. Understanding Mandis: Market Towns and the Dynamics of India's Rural and Urban Transformations

Author:
Devesh Kapur and Mekhala Krishnamurthy
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
Mandis or physical, primary agricultural markets are old and ubiquitous institutions of economic life in many parts of India. Wherever they form, they are usually dense sites of economic, social and political activity, connecting and shaping the relations between town and countryside, and between local markets for commodities and larger, national and global circuits of capital and commerce. According to available estimates, there are over 7500 regulated agricultural markets in India today, operating under different state level acts covering a huge variety of notified agricultural produce.
Topic:
Agriculture, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
India and Asia

39358. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security

Author:
Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

39359. If Not Now, When? Ending Violence Against the World's Children

Author:
David Steven
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The world faces old and new security challenges that are more complex than our multilateral and national institutions are currently capable of managing. International cooperation is ever more necessary in meeting these challenges. The NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) works to enhance international responses to conflict, insecurity, and scarcity through applied research and direct engagement with multilateral institutions and the wider policy community.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Children

39360. Mitigating the Security Risks Posed by a Near-Nuclear Iran

Author:
Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
US President Barack Obama has called the international dispute over Iran's advanced nuclear program "one of the leading security challenges of our time." Fitting for a problem of this magnitude, analysts have thoroughly examined the major policy options for addressing the challenge, including most notably, diplomacy, containment, and military strikes. Lost in this focus on the broad policy options to prevent or deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, however, is the acknowledgement that Iran already possesses a latent nuclear weapons capability and that this capability poses several threats to international peace and security at present. Moreover, it is almost certain that Iran will retain such a capability in the short to medium term regardless of how the nuclear diplomacy progresses-and even if the international community and Iran agree to a "comprehensive" nuclear deal. Rather than an exclusive focus on broad strategies for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, therefore, it would also be prudent to identify and mitigate against the challenges posed by Iran's extant latent nuclear capability, a capability that will likely remain in place even if Washington's policy of prevention is successful.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Iran