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42. Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?
- Author:
- Vincenzo Bove, Georgios Efthyvoulou, and Harry Pickard
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Numerous studies demonstrate that terrorism causes strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Yet, are these effects short-lived? We answer this question using a quasi-experimental design and data on three successful and three foiled terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. We find that heightened risk perceptions and emotional reactions in the wake of successful attacks do not dissipate in the very short run but are sustained over time and up to 130 days after the attacks. We also find that, whereas large-scale attacks cause a long-lasting shift in risk assessments and emotions, the corresponding effect of smaller-scale terrorism incidents appears to subside within one month. Interestingly, foiled attacks can also affect public perceptions, which, however, quickly return to normal levels. We argue that the extent of media coverage is partly responsible for the duration of these effects.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Emotions, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
43. Starr Forum: Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A book talk with Spencer Ackerman, national-security correspondent. A union of journalism and intellectual history, Reign of Terror is a pathbreaking and definitive book with the power to transform how America understands its national security policies and their catastrophic impact on its civic life.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Surveillance, Civil Rights, and Police State
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
44. Powered by Twitter? The Taliban's Takeover of Afghanistan
- Author:
- Laura Courchesne, Bahar Rasikh, Brian McQuinn, and Cody Buntain
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- On August 15, 2021, a spokesperson of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, the Taliban’s self- proclaimed state, declared on Twitter: “With the help of God, and the support of the nation, we are now in control of all parts of the country. We would like to congratulate our nation on this big achievement.” After 20 years of conflict with U.S. and NATO coalition forces, no one predicted the speed with which the Taliban would consolidate power and precipitate the collapse of the Afghan government and military. Presenting research conducted by the newly established Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Conflict (CAIDAC), this report explores social media’s central role in the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the strategies used by the group to manipulate international and domestic audiences. It examines the Taliban’s social media strategy on Twitter throughout their takeover of Afghanistan, which culminated in the storming of Kabul on August 15, 2021. Specifically, we studied the activity of 63 accounts claimed by the Taliban leadership, spokespersons, and avowed members from April 1 to September 16, 2021. These accounts had more than 2 million followers on Twitter in September 2021. As of May 8, 2022, Taliban content reaches more than 3.3 million accounts. We also examined the broader Taliban ecosystem, which included more than 126,000 Twitter accounts that either retweeted Taliban content or posted content subsequently shared by the Taliban’s core network. We found clear patterns in the group’s communication strategies, visual imagery deployed, and the timing and content of social media activity and events on the ground.
- Topic:
- NATO, Terrorism, Taliban, Social Media, and Political Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan
45. Protection Dilemmas Arising from the Reintegration of Former Combatants and the Impact of the Terrorist Designation
- Author:
- Agathe Sarfati and Phoebe Donnelly
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The concept and implementation of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) have evolved as DDR-related activities have increasingly occurred in environments where armed conflict is ongoing, no peace agreement has been signed, and armed groups designated as terrorist organizations (AGDTOs) are operating. In parallel, reintegration has increasingly been discussed in the UN counterterrorism architecture through the concept of prosecution, rehabilitation, and reintegration (PRR). The changing context has raised challenges related to reintegration, especially reintegration of former members of AGDTOs. This policy paper analyzes the risks faced by individuals taking part in reintegration processes and by the communities they are reintegrating into. In particular, it analyzes how the designation of an armed group as a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council or by a state impacts these risks while acknowledging that these risks largely depend on the broader context. The paper examines three case studies of current reintegration processes: (1) the process for reincorporating former combatants from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia–People’s Army (FARC-EP); (2) the defector program for former members of al-Shabaab in Somalia; and (3) the reintegration process for individuals associated with Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. The paper concludes by recommending several steps the UN could take to help ensure that reintegration processes address protection risks, especially for former members of AGDTOs: Tailor reintegration programs to the context, not to whether a group is labeled as a terrorist organization; Design reintegration programs to be gender-sensitive and human rights–compliant; Ensure that PRR and DDR programs are complementary and adopt the Integrated DDR Standards module on AGDTOs; and Keep reintegration and counterterrorism goals distinct.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Civilians, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Colombia
46. Psychological Determinants of Individual Radicalisation
- Author:
- Elzbieta Posluszna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The paper aims to define the psychological foundations of lone wolf activism. The analysis that facilitated attaining this goal was based on the Nietzschean concept of resentment theory of compensatory revaluating values that explain the relationships between inferiority and fundamentalism, fanaticism, and ideologically motivated violence. Based on a phenomenological examination of the phenomenon, the author demonstrates that lone wolf activism is founded on two psychologically and sociologically determined successive processes. The first one occurs when a sense of personal inferiority becomes the source of an envy-based hostile attitude toward the world. Later on, this feeling, due to personality defence mechanisms, which bring about the falsification of “primary desires” and the generation of “secondary desires”, transforms into fundamentalism. The second process takes place when, as the result of fundamentalist legitimisation that arise on the level of social rivalry, given fundamentalism is destituted, resulting in fanaticism. The author believes that the knowledge of both processes is necessary to recognise and combat the terrorist activity of lone ideologically motivated individuals.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Radicalization, Psychology, Legitimacy, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
47. Selected Problems of Security Control in Civil Aviation Based on Own Empirical Research
- Author:
- Gabriel Nowacki and Bohdan Paszukow
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The paper refers to the evolution of methods, new technologies, and devices in security control processes in light of civil aviation requirements, procedures, and increased flow of passengers. The research problem has been defined as follows: How shall the international airport security controls function in the context of regulatory and operational conditions and current and future threats? In reference to the problem, the research hypothesis was defined as follows: Security control in civil aviation consists of screening persons and detecting prohibited articles and mainly depends on the professional competence of security staff and the proper selection and maintenance of electronic assistive devices. Professional competences refer to personnel’s knowledge, experience, qualification, monitoring, operational supervision, and quality control as part of their tasks. The development of new technologies requires the appropriate selection, commensurate with risk analysis, of electronic assistive devices, including equipment, methods, technical means, and their maintenance in a proper technical condition. The paper presents the results of empirical research conducted amongst experienced aviation security forums. Because of its complexity and unpredictability, this problem still leaves a wide margin for improvement and efficiency. The following research methods were used to solve the research problem: theoretical methods and empirical methods: diagnostic survey and expert interview.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and Aviation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
48. Assessing Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) Initiatives Across the West – Lessons Learned
- Author:
- Elena Savoia, Michael King, Anna Ekström, Diána Hughes, Adam Baker, and Lauren LaBrique
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programs worldwide aim to prevent individuals from engaging in terrorism. However, such programs vary widely in their approaches, which range from public awareness campaigns aimed at educating populations about the risks of violent extremist ideologies to in-person interventions for individuals who have already been radicalized and, in some instances, engaged in terrorist activities.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Radicalization, and Countering Violent Extremism
- Political Geography:
- Europe and United States of America
49. The Terrorism of Tomorrow is Already Here
- Author:
- Phil Gurski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Many experts who track global developments in terrorism over time are familiar with the work of American political scientist David Rapoport. The UCLA professor emeritus is best known for what he dubbed the “wave theory of terrorism.” This comprehensive overview of terrorist movements spanning 150 years posits that there have been four such “waves” — or shifts in motivation, techniques, and outcomes — of terrorist activity since the latter half of the nineteenth century...
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Political Science
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
50. Hezbollah in Colombia: Past and Present Modus Operandi and the Need for Greater Scrutiny
- Author:
- Aurora Ortega
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A probe of the group’s commercial activities can yield insights on its Latin American operations, which in recent years have touched not only Colombia but also Peru, Chile, and Bolivia. Research on Hezbollah in Latin America has tended to focus on Venezuela and the Tri-Border Area, covering Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, but recent events show that less noted countries deserve attention too. In 2014, for example, Peruvian police arrested a Hezbollah operative in Lima’s Surquillo district for planning a terrorist operation, and security services in the region also evidently disrupted a Hezbollah terrorist plot targeting innocent civilians in Chile. In 2017, Bolivian authorities identified a Hezbollah-affiliated warehouse and seized enough explosive precursor material to produce a two-and-a-half-ton bomb. Then, in fall 2021 in Colombia, local reporting indicated that Hezbollah was planning to assassinate an Israeli national as part of a broader operation that also targeted Americans, reportedly to avenge the January 2020 killing of Iran’s Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani. In this incisive Policy Note, researcher Aurora Ortega demonstrates how enhanced scrutiny of Hezbollah’s commercial ventures could provide insight into the group’s operations and potentially disrupt its infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere. To this end, she highlights the activities of little-known Hezbollah agents in Latin America and outlines opportunities for the United States to interdict them through a mix of law enforcement, sanctions, and diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Hezbollah, and Commerce
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America